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Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green a key stat
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Great tournament for outsiders
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In-play drama expected at tough layout
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Read my Memorial Tournament preview here
Tournament History
The Porsche European Open was first staged back in 1978, when Bobby Wadkins got the better of fellow American, Gill Morgan, and Scotland's Bernard Gallacher in a playoff at Walton Heath and the tournament was a nomadic ever-present on the DP World Tour until 2009 when it fell off the schedule.
It returned to the rota in 2015 and it's been played in Germany ever since. The first two editions were played at the Beckenbauer Course in Bad Griesbach but it switched to the Green Eagle Resort, just outside Hamburg, in 2017 and we're back there again this time around for the sixth time.
Venue
The Porsche Nord Course, Green Eagle Golf Resort, Hamburg, Germany.
Course Details
Par 72, 7,475 yards
Stroke Index in 2022 - 74.24
Formally known as the North Course, and now known as the Porsche Nord Course, this week's host track is extremely long, measuring in excess of 7,800 yards but it's impossible to know what yardage it will play to.
It's changed every year and with as many as four teeing areas on each hole, there's plenty of flexibility with regards to set up. It played to the shortest yardage yet 12 months ago at just shy of 7,500 yards.
In addition to the last five renewals of this event, the Porsche Nord Course was also used on the Challenge Tour in 2010 for the ECCO Tour Championship, which was won by the then amateur, Andreas Harto, in eight-under-par.
It's reputed to be one of the ten longest courses in the world and it's described as the most difficult golf course in Germany.
The Porsche Nord Course is a flat parkland course with wide fairways but it has water in-play to varying degrees on every hole bar one. The greens are laid to a mixture of Bentgrass and Poa Annua and they're large with big undulations.
The flyover below gives a good feel for the terrain and I've looked at the layout in more detail in the In-Play Tactics section below.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at midday on Thursday.
Last Five Winners with Exchange Prices
- 2022 - Kalle Samooja -6 200.0199/1
- 2021 - Marcus Armitage - (54 holes) 120.0119/1
- 2020 - Event Cancelled
- 2019 - Paul Casey -14 10.09/1
- 2018 - Richard McEvoy -11 170.0169/1
- 2017 - Jordan Smith -13 (playoff) 48.047/1
What Will it Take to Win?
Green Eagle is monstrously long with five par fives and the 2017 winner here, Jordan Smith, ranked second for Driving Distance but the 2018 stats suggested it was far from a bomber's paradise and the last three results have confirmed it.
The 2018 winner, Richard McEvoy, ranked only 62nd for DD and the two men to finish alongside John Allen in second, Christofer Blomstrand and Renato Paratore, ranked 50th and 58th.
The 2019 winner, Paul Casey, ranked 12th for Driving Distance but the next four on the leaderboard ranked only 23rd, 31st, 48th and 19th and the top-five in 2021 ranked 41st, 13th, 31st, 25th and 39th.
The front three ranked 13th, 12th and 18th 12 months ago but nobody inside the top-nine ranked any better than that. Niklas Norgaard Moller hit it further than anyone else and he finished tied for 10th.
Driving Accuracy more important than distance
The first five home four years ago ranked eighth, fourth, tenth, 17th and second for Driving Accuracy, the four players tied for second behind Marcus Armitage in 2021 (who ranked 34th for DA) ranked first, second, ninth and 15th for DA and four of the top-nine 12 months ago ranked seventh of better.
It's a long course on paper but they fiddle with the yardage during the tournament and it's far from a bombers' paradise. There's water in-play all over the track so trouble awaits and finding fairways is key.
Last year's winner, Kalle Samooja, ranked second for Greens In Regulation 12 months ago and five of the top-eight in the GIR ranking finished inside the top-nine. The top two in the GIR rankings finished tied for second in 2021 and the top three in the GIR rankings four years ago finished fifth, first and second. Romain Wattel, who finished sixth, ranked fifth for GIR.
Unsurprisingly, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green has been a key stat too but it's possible to win here without having a remarkable week with putter.
The 2018 winner, Paul Casey, ranked 24th for Putting Average and Samooja only ranked 33rd for PA and 66th for Strokes Gained Putting 12 months ago.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Paul Casey was winning the 14th of his 15 DP World Tour titles when he won here in 2019 but the three players to finish tied for second were in search of their first victories and the other four course winners were all winning on the DP World Tour for the first time.
Casey was a well-fancied 9/110.00 chance but the other four course winners were all outsiders and the last three were all triple-figure priced outsiders.
Richard Mansell, who is still in search of his first DP World Tour title, finished third 12 months ago and he was the only Englishman to finish inside the top-nine places, but the first four course winners were all English.
Winner's 54-hole Position and Exchange Price
- 2022 - Kalle Samooja - tied 22nd, trailing by seven 1000.0999/1
- 2021- Marcus Armitage - tied 11th, trailing by four 70.069/1
- 2020 - Event Cancelled
- 2019 - Paul Casey solo 3rd - trailing by one 3.1511/5
- 2018 - Richard McEvoy - tied for the lead 7.87/1
- 2017 - Jordan Smith - led by two 3.1511/5
In-Play Tactics
The combination of a really tough track and nervy pros playing for an awful lot, and very often their first wins, makes for plenty of drama and more importantly, trading opportunities.
In the first four tournaments staged here, every winner was within four of the lead after the opening round and the three winners of this event were all inside the top-four at halfway. Harto sat tied for seventh at halfway in the 2010 ECCO Tour Championship here on the Challenge Tour but he only tailed by two.
The first three course winners were all leading with a round to go and Casey only trailed by a stroke in 2019 but we still witnessed plenty of carnage in the market and the last two winners have come from miles back.
Alex Levy had looked like making a successful title defence when he led by a stroke playing the final hole in 2017 but he couldn't match Jordan Smith's birdie at the par five 18th and the event went into extra time. Smith failed to make birdie again and more than £17K was matched on Levy at 1.011/100 as he stood over a tiddler for the title but then this happened.
A shell-shocked Levy couldn't match Smith's birdie four at the second extra hole and the title went the way of the Englishman and Bryson DeChambeau, who was tied for the lead with a round to go, completely capitulated here in 2018.
His price dipped to 1.232/9 when he led by a stroke with four to play but he lost the plot completely after that and eventually finished tied for 13th and although he eventually got the job done, Paul Casey had a little wobble in 2019, before holing a 35-footer on the 16th hole on Sunday to settle the nerves.
It was an open looking affair after three rounds two years ago with eight largely inexperienced pros within two of the lead. It was 5/16.00 the field and the winner, Marcus Armitage, who had trailed by four, was the only player to trade at odds-on.
He was the first off-the-pace winner witnessed at the venue, but we didn't have to wit long for the second.
Samooja began the final round trailing the 54-hole leader, Victor Perez, who was matched at a low of 1.814/5, by seven strokes but he finished up winning quite comfortably in the end (by two) after a quite remarkable bogey-free eight-under-par 64 in round four.
It'll be quite a surprise if we get another winner from quite that far back but with water in play on all but one hole, this is a track that creates drama and taking the leaders on if they go odds-on on Sunday may pay dividends yet again.
Market Leaders
Having traded at odds-on 12 months ago, Victor Perez heads what is an extremely competitive market at 20/121.00 but he's hard to fancy after his missed cut last week when defending his KLM Open title.
Rasmus Hojgaard finished third at the KLM but he was slightly disappointing on Sunday, dropping shots after making birdies on three occasions.
The Dane's long game wasn't great if the stats can be believed and although he finished second here in a one round Nordic Golf League event back in 2019, he's finished 55th and 51st here in each of the last two renewals.
The 2017 winner, Jordan Smith, has course form figures reading 1-64-MC-11-10 so clearly likes the track but he's missed his last two cuts and is easy to dismiss.
Campillo chanced after KLM collapse
After opening up with a nine-under-par 63 on Thursday and a more sedate one-under on Friday, the recent Kenya Open winner, Jorge Campillo, was matched at a low of just 1.625/8 when he stood on the eighth tee on Saturday at the KLM Open with a five-stroke lead but he lost the plot completely after that - eventually finishing tied for 29th!
It's tough to know how he'll react to such a weekend collapse and his course form figures read a mundane 34-37-33-25-MC but he has just the right neat and tidy game for the layout and I thought he was worth chancing at 46.045/1.
Campillo missed the cut at the Soudal Open in his penultimate start but his form figures before that read 4-1-9-3-8 and his sensational start last week shows just what he's capable of.
I'll be back in the morning with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter