• Look to Sedgefield for clues

• An early start on Thursday often advantagous 

• Completely Free Bet available every day this Cheltenham Festival on any racing multi

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Tournament History

Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, the fifth Signature Event of the year - the Players Championship - began life in 1974 when Jack Nicklaus won the first of his three titles. 

He's still the only man to achieve that feat but six other players have won the tournament twice - Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Hal Sutton, Davis Love, Tiger Woods and Scottie Scheffler. 

Universally referred to as the fifth major, the Players Championship is one of the most prestigious tournaments staged throughout the year and this is the 52^nd edition. 

Scheffler was the first man to defend the title 12 months ago, but we have to go back ten years to the previous occasion that a defending champion finished inside the top 15, when Adam Scott finished eighth.

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Venue

TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

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Course Details

Par 72 -7,275 yards 
Stroke Index in 2024 - 71.47

Constructed in 1980, specifically for the purpose of hosting this event, the Stadium Course at Sawgrass has been the tournament's venue since 1982. It's a Bermuda-grass Pete Dye design and it's one of the most renowned courses in the world.

With its dramatic island green, the par 3 17th is one of the most recognised holes in golf. 

Described as a balanced course, with dog-legged holes going both ways and holes routed so that no two consecutive holes ever play in the same direction, it's a true test that doesn't tend to favour any one type of player.

In 2006, just before the event moved to its May slot (which it occupied for 12 years before switching back to March in 2019) all the tees, fairways and greens were stripped and new drainage, irrigation, and sub-air systems were installed. The changes meant that the firmness of the smaller than average sized greens can be controlled in any weather conditions, and they're usually set to run at around 13 on the Stimpmeter. 

The course underwent a further renovation after the 2016 renewal and the yardage was reduced slightly as a result. All the greens were changed from mini verde to TifEagle Bermudagrass, holes one, four, eight, nine, 11, 13 and 14 underwent modifications to their greens, to better absorb wear and tear, and in some cases, to increase the number of available pin positions.

A new back tee was built on the par five ninth before the in 2023, stretching the hole to 602 yards.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 11:30 (UK and Ireland) on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Scottie Scheffler -20 7.06/1
2023 - Scottie Scheffler -17 13.012/1
2022 - Cam Smith -13 42.041/1
2021 - Justin Thomas -14 23.022/1
2020 - Tournament cancelled after round one (COVID)
2019 - Rory McIlroy -16 17.016/1
2018 - Webb Simpson -18 80.079/1
2017 - Si Woo Kim -10 900.0899/1
2016 - Jason Day -15 14.013/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Players Championship?

Sawgrass allows for all player types to prosper so the Players is a magnificent but very open tournament as a rule.

Scheffler ranked 14^th for Driving Distance last year but he hit it further than anyone else off the tee in 2023, as did Jason Day back in 2016. In contrast, the 2018 winner, Webb Simpson, ranked only 71^st DD.

Simpson prospered because he found more fairways than anyone else whereas Day only ranked 54^th for DA and the 2019 result demonstrated perfectly how different long games can fare equally well here...

Rory McIlroy won the event ranking 5^th for DD and 49^th for DA, with the veteran, Jim Furyk, finishing second ranking only 72^nd for DD but third for DA.

In the decade between 2005 and 2014, the ten winners had an average Greens In Regulation ranking of just 7.5 and last year's front four ranked third, first, fourth and 13^th for GIR but recent history suggests you don't necessarily have to hit green after green provided you scramble impeccably instead.

The 2022 winner, Cam Smith, ranked only 52^nd for GIR and the three victors before Simpson, seven years ago, ranked 51^st, 15^th and 37^th so it's not absolutely imperative to find greens with consistency, if your recovery game around the dancefloors is on point.

The smaller than average greens are tough to hit with regularity so most winners scramble well around Sawgrass.

Ordinarily, this is one of those rare events where putting isn't absolutely key. The 2021 winner, Justin Thomas, ranked only 14th for Putting Average and 42^nd for Strokes Gained Putting and Scheffler ranked 34^th and 47^th for those two metrics in 2023 and 18^th and 37^th last year so Smith really went against the grain three years ago.

Smith was the first winner of the Players to hit less than 50% of the fairways throughout the week (43%!) but he gained and incredible 11.5 strokes with the putter and his 45 one-putts throughout the week beat the record of any previous Players winner by seven!

Unsurprisingly, Smith ranked first for both Putting Average and Strokes Gained Putting, but that's not the norm around here and players that aren't renowned for flatstick prowess can and do win.

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Is There an Angle In?

The RBC Heritage, the Travelers Championship, and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (now a pairs event) are also played on Pete Dye-designed courses and two of the four rounds at The American Express are played around the Pete Dye Stadium Course. 

Other Pete Dye tracks to consider are Austin Country Club, which hosted the last six editions of the now defunct WGC-Match Play, Whistling Straits, which staged the USPGA Championship in 2004, 2010 and 2015, Crooked Stick, which hosted the 2012 and 2016 BMW Championships and the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, which hosted both the 2012 and 2021 US PGA Championships but the course that appears to correlate best with Sawgrass was designed by Donald Ross. 

Scheffler has never played Sedgefield Country Club, which hosts the Wyndham Championship, but two of the five Players Champions before him, Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim, have both won the Wyndham Championship and four other Players Champions, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Davis Love III and K.J Choi have also won both events. 

The Wyndham only returned to Sedgefield in 2008, after a break of more than 30 years, but we've now seen six men win at both venues recently and both the 2010 and 2014 Players champions, Tim Clark and Adam Scott, have both finished second at Sedgefield. 

The 2023 Wyndham winner, Lucas Glover, has finished third here and the 2021 Wyndham winner, Kevin Kisner, was beaten in a playoff here in 2015. Kisner was also fourth three years ago, and Luke Donald has finished runner-up at both venues. 

Last year's Wyndham winner, Arron Rai, has finished only 19^th and 35^th in his two visits here but he sat fourth with a round to go on debut two years ago, having sat tied for 71^st after round one.

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Strong current form looks key

Sawgrass isn't somewhere that out of form players suddenly find something to win and 12 of the last 14 winners have finished tied fourth or better in at least one event earlier in the calendar year.

The last three winners, Scottie Scheffler (twice) and Cam Smith, had won earlier in the year and 33^rd (Smith two years ago) is the worst any of the last 13 winners have finished in their previous start.

Last week's venue, Bay Hill, is a tough Floridian track too so it makes sense that a good week there is a solid pointer.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

First-timers don't have a great record at Sawgrass. In 43 previous renewals here, only two debutants have won - Hal Sutton in 1983 and huge outsider, Craig Perks in 2002.

Si Woo Kim, who was the youngest ever winner of the event at 21, was only playing the event for a second time eight years ago, having finished 23^rd in 2016, and Scheffler had only been here twice before winning the first of his two titles in 2023. 

Scheffler missed the cut on debut in 2021 before finishing tied for 55^th in 2022 but the four winners before him, Smith, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Webb Simpson, and the three winners before Kim, all give us a nice indication of the sort of course form portfolios that are typical here. 

Cam Smith 2022 - MC-MC-56-17
Justin Thomas 2021 - 24-3-MC-11-35
Rory McIlroy 2019 - MC-MC-MC-8-6-8-12-35-MC
Webb Simpson 2018 - MC-MC-69-MC-15-MC-66-16
Jason Day 2016 - MC-6-MC-19-MC
Rickie Fowler 2015 - MC-MC-2-MC-MC
Martin Kaymer 2014 - 55-34-19-15-43 

That could be extended further, as the vast majority of winners have lots of appearances and plenty of missed cuts.

It's a difficult event to predict with all sorts of types winning and course specialists are few and far between, but Scheffler was an unusual winner two years ago as there's nearly always at least one decent performance at the track in the portfolio. 

The 15 winners before 2023 had all finished at least 23^rd or better here previously. 

The last five winners have been well-fancied, and Simpson was fairly well-backed in 2018. He opened up at 110.0109/1 on the Monday but went off at around 80.079/1 and Jason Day was well-fancied nine years ago too, but the list of past champions contains plenty of shock winners so don't be afraid to back an outsider or two as they have a fair record. 

Kim was matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off eight years ago, I can't imagine too many picked out the likes of Craig Perks or Fred Funk and I have fond memories of backing Stephen Ames at 170.0169/1.

Fowler wasn't exactly well-fancied a decade ago, as he was matched at 70.069/1 before the off, and Kaymer was matched at a triple-figure price 11 years ago.

Wily old veterans, who know how to plot their way around Sawgrass, tend to do well here. Fred Funk was no spring chicken when he won in 2005 and when 40-year-old K.J Choi won in 2011, he beat 44-year-old David Toms in the playoff. 

Americans won the first 13 editions of the Players Championship and for a long time Americans, and to a lesser extent the Aussies, dominated the event but that's changed somewhat in recent years with Americans only winning ten of the last 22 renewals. 

Outsiders and overseas players tend to do well here. 

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Scottie Scheffler tied 6^th - trailing by five 13.012/1
2023 - Scottie Scheffler led by two strokes 1.4740/85
2022 - Cameron Smith tied 2nd - trailing by two 9.417/2
2021 - Justin Thomas - tied third - trailing by three 6.611/2
2019 - Rory McIlroy tied 2nd - trailing by one 3.613/5
2018 - Webb Simpson led by seven strokes 1.171/6
2017 - Si Woo Kim solo 4th - trailing by two 17.016/1
2016 - Jason Day led by four strokes 1.374/11

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Early start on Thursday a huge plus

Although it's hard to hang fire when you see the prices moving against you when the market first opens, it may well be worth holding on, or at least keeping some powder dry before the draw is made as there's very often a huge advantage to be had with an early start on Thursday.

That wasn't the case last year with the afternoon starters averaging 0.97 of a stroke less than the morning starters, and Scheffler was one of those drawn on Thursday afternoon, but when he won the event for the first time two years ago he was the eighth winner in-a-row to begin the tournament on Thursday morning.

Scheffler last year, Tiger woods in 2013, and Martin Kaymer a year later, are the only three winners in the last 18 years to be drawn PM-AM!

It's often advantageous to begin the week early on day one but even more so here. Sawgrass gets fast and firm very quickly so Thursday morning is often the easiest time to play it - especially if the wind gets up in the afternoon. 

Given this tournament favours the frontrunners (see In-Play Tactics below) getting drawn early on Thursday is very often a big plus.

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In-Play Tactics

Although Scheffler came from as far back with a round to go as any Sawgrass winner this century (five strokes), he was inside the top six all week last year and he was up with the pace throughout two years ago too.

He sat tied fifth and just four off the lead after round one, and he sat second and two back at halfway before leading by two with 18 to play and that was a far more typical route to victory than the previous two winners.

Having sat tied for 15^th after round one three years ago, Cam Smith was still only tied for 11^th at halfway and trading at 18.017/1 before moving into a tie for second after 54 holes.

Like Scheffler over the last two years, most winners are closer to the pace throughout than that but the 2021 winner, Justin Thomas, started even slower.

Thomas was matched at a high of 210.0209/1 in-running before a rally on the back nine in round two saw him go into the weekend tied for 22^nd and trailing by seven strokes but his performance was very unusual.

A fast start is extremely beneficial here - hence why I like the early starters on day one - and three of the last ten winners - Simpson, Day and Kaymer - have won wire-to-wire. 

In the previous 51 renewals, as many as 15 winners have been leading after round one, 24 have been positioned inside the top-three after day one and 22 winners have either been leading or only one off the pace after round one.

Interestingly, 15 first round leaders have gone on to victory but only 21 third round leaders have won so being out in front through 54-holes isn't necessarily a big plus. 

Even including the three wire-to-wire winners (who shot final rounds of 71, 71 and 73 to hang on), since Elkington won the second of his two titles back in 1997 by seven after a 69 on Sunday, as many as 31 players have led or co-led through 54 holes and only three of them (Scheffler in 2023, Stephen Ames in 2006 and the unfortunate Anirban Lahiri in 2022) have shot a round in the 60s on Sunday. 

Ames fired a 67 to win by six having led by one 19 years ago and Scheffler moved from two clear to five in front with a 69 in round four two years ago. 

In contrast, Lahiri, who also fired 69 in round four, became only the third leader or co-leader to break 70 in 25 years and he was the first to do so and not win since D.A Weibring in 1985.

Last year's 54-hole leader, Xander Schauffele, finished second after shooting 70, so the last three third round leaders have definitely bucked the trend given the 18 third round leaders/co/leaders in-between 2006 and 2022 were a combined 51-over-par, with a scoring average of 75!

Up with the pace is definitely the place to be but you're clearly there to be shot at if you're leading at Sawgrass through 54 holes.

If you are planning to trade in-running, the first two holes are straightforward but it gets tough after that and the scoring section (if it can be classed as one) is between holes nine and 12. 

The final hole on the back nine is a par five that averaged 4.77 last year, the 11^th is another par five (averaged 4.7 last time) and the drivable 12^th averaged below par (3.89). 

It's a grind all the way in after that though with the only respite coming at the par five 16^th which was the easiest hole on the course last year (4.45). 

The famous 17^th averaged 3.08 last year and was the seventh hardest on the course and the 18^th played the second toughest, averaging 4.25. The par four 14^th, which averaged 4.26, ranked as the hardest hole last year. 

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Will in-form Scottie's putter warm up?

Having failed in his bid to win three Arnold Palmer Invitational titles in four years, when he finished tied for 11^th at Bay Hill last week, world number one, Scottie Scheffler, will pitch up at Sawgrass this week in search of his third Players Championship victory in-a-row and if last week's stats are anything to go by, only one club is likely to derail him.

Scheffler ranked 11^th for Driving Distance, fourth for Driving Accuracy, second for Greens In Regulation and third for Scrambling but only 50^th for Putting Average!

Several players had a few grumbles about the greens and Scheffler was one of them.

"Putting on a surface that's practically dead, the ball can have a life of its own," Scheffler said. "I'm proud of hitting a lot of good putts, just wasn't my week on the greens."

Scheffler is right to lay the blame on the putting surfaces, confessing to not putting well would only erode confidence but the numbers were just too bad to suggest the greens alone were to blame.

It's certainly possible that he can improve markedly from one week to the next. He's done it before and if he does so again this week he'll take some beating.

As detailed in the De-brief, Collin Morikawa was yet again disappointing in-contention on Sunday at Bay Hill but that hasn't stopped him being backed into second favouritism.

With course form numbers reading 41-MC-13-45, Morikawa has only ordinary Sawgrass form and he makes no appeal at around 14/115.00 given he needs to bounce back after Sunday's disappointing defeat.

The 2019 Players winner, Rory McIlroy, has only disappointing course numbers reading MC-33-MC-19 since his victory and he was uncharacteristically poor off the tee when finishing only 15^th at Bay Hill last week.

Having ranked first, fourth, first and fourth for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in his four previous starts, Rory ranked only 31^st last week and that's a bit of a concern, although he did putt better than he'd done at Torrey Pines in his penultimate start, when finishing 17^th in the Genesis Invitational.

He'd been an impressive winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am prior to that so his last two performances have been underwhelming.

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Keegan can score Sawgrass success

I'd earmarked Keegan Bradley for this event prior to last week's Arnold Palmer so I've got mixed feelings about his fifth placed finish at Bay Hill.

Bradley shot the lowest front nine score ever recorded at Bay Hill on Sunday (a seven-under-par 29) so he's certainly found some form but that's obviously had an impact on his price.

Now 38, he fits the experienced veteran profile so often successful at Sawgrass and his in-and-out course form figures reading 72-35-MC-MC-MC-35-60-7-16-29-5-MC-MC are typical of many a Players Championship winner.

Bradley has won on the PGA Tour in each of the last three years so he's enjoying plenty of success in the autumn of his career and I was happy to play him at 70.069/1.

I'll be back tomorrow with a couple of selections for the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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