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The American Express the event to consider
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Excellent approach play key at TPC Scottsdale
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What happened last week? Record-breaking Rose cruises to Torrey Pines victory
Pre-event 80.079/1 chance, Justin Rose, who was matched at a high of 95.094/1 before the off, became the first clear wire-to-wire winner of the Farmers Insurance Open since Tommy Bolt in 1955 and his 24-under-par total beat Tiger Woods' record of 22-under, set back in 1999.
Rose had led by a stroke after a 10-under-par 62 around the North Course on Thursday and he put daylight between himself and the field with a brilliant seven-under-par 65 around the South Course on Friday.
Leading by four, the evergreen 45-year-old Englishman was a 1.68/13 chance at halfway on the Betfair Exchange and after extending his lead to six, he was a 1.061/18 chance with 18 to play. Rose eventually won by seven! The Englishman is now 28.027/1 to win The Masters.
Over on the DP World Tour, Calum Hill led the Bahrain Championship by five strokes at halfway but after a calamitous start to round three, his lead was cut to just two with a round to go.
I thought Hill was a very fair price at 1.9720/21 at halfway and I backed Patrick Reed with a round to go at 9.617/2 so when the event went to a three-man playoff, for the second year-in-a-row, I went into extra time with two of the three protagonists onside but the outcome was just as miserable this time around.
Hill was matched at a low of 1.182/11 in-running and Reed 1.728/11, but after Reed had been eliminated at the first extra hole, Hill ended up conceding the tournament after he'd hit his tee-shot out of bounds at the second extra hole before shanking his fourth shot into the water!
Freddy Schott, who was matched at as high as 420.0419/1 when the market first opened on Monday, was generally a 230.0229/1 chance before the off.
Schott's victory came 12 months after Laurie Canter had won in extra time, beating Dan Brown, who I'd backed in-running at 9.28/1, and Pablo Larrazabal, who I'd got onside at 60.059/1.
Phoenix Open Tournament History
Originally called the Arizona Open and first staged 94 years ago, the Phoenix Open is one of the oldest events on the PGA Tour.
Recognized for its raucous crowd alongside the infamous par three 16th hole, the Phoenix Open is an enjoyable event that nearly always produces a tight and tense finish, with six of the last 10 editions decided via a playoff, although that certainly wasn't the case last year when Thomas Detry romped to a six-stroke win in 24-under-par.
Venue
TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona.
Course Details
Par 71, 7,261 yards
Hole averages in 2025 - 69.96
Best known for its barmy par three 16th hole, this Stadium Course was built specifically for this event and this year it hosts the event for the 38th time. It's a links style desert track with an exciting finish. The 15th is a reachable par five with water in play (averaged 4.72 last year) and the 17th is a drivable par four (averaged 3.73 12 months ago) but that too has water in play. And it nearly always has a say in who lifts the trophy.
The 17th is the hole that tripped up the 2019 winner, Rickie Fowler, a decade ago when he found the drink with his drive, having been matched at just 1.031/33 in-running, but it won him the event seven years ago when Branden Grace found the water, having hit a low of 1.42/5.
Martin Laird also found the water in 2015 when leading and having been matched at odds-on but it was where Brooks Koepka sealed the deal five years ago when he holed out for an eagle two.
The course was tweaked and lengthened prior to the 2015 edition but low scores are still possible.
In wet conditions, the 2024 winner, Nick Taylor, kicked off the event with an 11-under-par 60 and that was fifth time someone had come within a stroke of shooting a round in the 50s at TPC Scottsdale.
The Bermuda greens are of an average size and they typically run fast at around 12 on the stimpmeter.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 14:15 on Thursday.
Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2025 - Thomas Detry -24 160.0159/1
2024 - Nick Taylor -21 280.0279/1 (playoff)
2023 - Scottie Scheffler -19 14.013/1
2022 - Scottie Scheffler -16 26.025/1 (playoff)
2021 - Brooks Koepka -19 50.049/1
2020 - Webb Simpson -17 24.023/1 (playoff)
2019 - Rickie Fowler -17 16.015/1
2018 - Gary Woodland -18 70.069/1 (playoff)
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama -17 12.011/1 (playoff)
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama -14 27.026/1 (playoff)
What Will it Take to Win the Phoenix Open?
Accuracy from the tee has been fractionally more important than length at TPC Scottsdale but there's not much in it.
The last ten winners have had an average Driving Distance ranking of 22.5 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 20.9 so neither metric is crucial.
Up until 2010 putting was the most important stat but as Justin Ray's tweet below from four years ago demonstrates, accurate iron play has been the been the key here for the last decade or so and that's been the case in the last couple of years too.
Scottie Scheffler ranked third for Greens In Regulation and first for both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach when defending the title in 2023, the first four home in 2024 ranked tied second, tied second, fifth and first for GIR, and Detry topped the GIR stats and SG: Approach last year, with the front three ranking third, first and second for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Strong putting might not be as crucial as it once was here, but it never hurts.
Detry ranked fifth for Putting Average and second for Strokes Gained: Putting and 12 months earlier, the playoff protagonists, Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman, ranked fourth and first for PA and first and second for SG: Putting.
The last four winners have all played the par fours better than anyone else and Par 4 Scoring is always an important stat here given 12 of the last 13 winners have ranked inside the top seven for Par 4 Scoring.
Is There an Angle In?
Anyone that enjoys desert golf must be considered and given the recent American Express, won three weeks ago by the two-time winner here, Scottie Scheffler, is also played in the desert and as part of the West Coast Swing, it's perhaps not surprising to see that a number of other players have performed well at both events.
Phil Mickelson, Mark Wilson and Kenny Perry have also won both this event and the American Express fairly recently and a number of players have come close to winning both.
Jason Dufner, who won the American Express in 2016, was beaten in a playoff here by Wilson in 2011, the 2007 American Express winner, Charley Hoffman, has now lost two playoffs here, and Justin Leonard is another to win The American Express and finish second in Phoenix.
The beaten playoff protagonists here, Patrick Cantlay, has traded at odds-on in-running at the American Express (in both 2021 and 2022) and Cantlay, Jesper Parnevik, John Rollins and Ryan Palmer have all finished runner-up at both events.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
The last two results have gone against the grain.
The cream tends to rise to the top here and we've seen plenty of high-class winners with lots of major champions taking the title.
Prior to 2024, Rickie Fowler, had been the only Phoenix Open winner not to have won a major championship in a 10-year stretch, and the 2014 winner, Kevin Stadler, had been the only triple-figure priced winner, but that's all changed very recently, with the last two winners going off at 280.0279/1 and 160.0159/1.
This is a horses for courses track and already this century we've witnessed as many as seven players take the title at least twice.
Scheffler, in 2022 and 2023, and Hideki Matsuyama, in 2016 and 2017, like Johnny Miller in the 1970's, have won the event back-to-back and Arnold Palmer won the tournament three time in-a-row in the early 1960s.
Miller's successful defence in 1975 was an emphatic one given he won by 14 strokes but incredibly, he's not the only US Open winner to win by a double-figure margin. Steve Jones romped to an 11 shot win here in 1997!
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2025 - Thomas Detry led by five 1.564/7
2024 - Nick Taylor tied for the lead 6.25/1
2023 - Scottie Scheffler led by two 2.285/4
2022 - Scottie Scheffler tied third - trailing by two 8.615/2
2021 - Brooks Koepka tied 7th - trailing by five 46.045/1
2020 - Webb Simpson solo 2nd - trailing by one 3.711/4
2019 - Rickie Fowler led by four strokes 1.422/5
2018 - Gary Woodland tied 8th - trailing by three 42.041/1
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama tied 3rd - trailing by four 8.415/2
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama tied 2nd- trailing by three 5.85/1
In-Play Tactics
Taylor opened up the 2024 edition with a sensational 60 in round one and Detry sat fourth after round one last year before winning wire-to-wire after that but don't panic if any of your picks start slowly this week, as they might not necessarily be down and out.
Scottie Scheffler was matched at a whopping 300.0299/1 when he trailed by nine strokes at halfway four years ago and he's far from the first to rally from off the pace...
Having sat outside the top-20 and five off the lead after round one, Brooks Koepka was matched at a high of 180.0179/1 in-running in 2021 and he was matched at 320.0319/1 when he won the event for the first time in 2015, when he trailed by seven strokes after rounds one and two.
And having ended the first round tied for 66th and ten off the lead, the 2020 winner, Webb Simpson, was matched at 250.0249/1.
Kyle Stanley was tied 33rd and five back after round one in 2012, Hunter Mahan was tied for 29th and six back after round one, and seven adrift at halfway in 2011, and Kenny Perry sat 74th and seven back after round one in 2009.
Detry was too far clear to be caught last year, Taylor was tied for the lead with Sahith Theegala at the weather affected 2024 renewal, and Fowler was in front through 54 holes six years ago, but TPC Scottsdale has been a graveyard for third round leaders in recent years.
Fowler opened up the 2019 renewal with rounds of 64, 65 and 64 to take a four-stroke lead into Sunday but he needed Branden Grace to mess up the 17th hole to eventually get him across the line, having double-bogeyed the fifth, tripled the 11th and bogeyed the 12th and Hoffman really should have got the job done two years ago, having been matched at just 1.091/11 when he led by two with three holes to play
Stress-free finishes are extremely rare at Scottsdale, and it's been a great event for Sunday trading over the years.
Plenty of players have messed up in front here recently and with five of the last 10 editions going to extra time, this has been a great event to take on the leaders and short priced players on a Sunday.
Phoenix Open Bets: Scheffler the straightforward selection
Having won the American Express comfortably two weeks ago, as well as this event twice, in 2022 and 2023, before trading at odds-on to rack up the hattrick in 2024, Scottie Scheffler is simply impossible to ignore here.
Having won 14 of the last 35 PGA Tour events he's played in, Scheffler has a current strike rate of 40% suggesting he's very fair price at 5/23.50 at a venue he clearly loves.
Older punters will remember just how profitable Tiger Woods was to follow, winning year after year at the same venues, and Scheffler proved well worth following last year.
It's not easy to convince yourself to back someone at 5/23.50 to win a competitive PGA Tour event but when the stats suggest they should be trading at around 6/42.50 it simply needs to be done.
Back Scottie Scheffler