The Punter's In-Play Blog: McCarty leads by two in Utah

• Stats suggest the leader is short enough

• Jaeger the danger, if he can get the putts to drop

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11:40 - October 13, 2024

Matt McCarty looked a fair price at 7.06/1 to win the Black Desert Championship yesterday morning when he had three holes of round two left to play.

He was still two behind the leader, Stephan Jaeger, but he was just 20 feet away after two strokes on the par five seventh, with the par five ninth still to play.

It was odds-on that he'd close the gap to one at least but he parred his way in and bogeyed the first hole in round four.

His price jumped back out to over 20/121.00 and it looked like he might be going backwards but a birdie at the fourth kicked off a hot streak that saw him play five holes in six-under-par and he birdied three of his last six holes. He now heads into today's fourth and final round with a two-stroke lead. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:30.

Matt McCarty -19 2.747/4
Stephan Jaeger -17 6.25/1
Harris English -17 7.06/1
Joe Highsmith -17 9.417/2
Kevin Streelman -17 14.013/1
Harry Hall -15 22.021/1
Kurt Kitayama -14 48.047/1
Beau Hossler -14 48.047/1
Chad Ramey -14 120.0119/1
-13 and 200.0199/1 bar

As this is the first edition of the Black Desert Championship and the first time the course has been used on the PGA Tour, we don't have any previous events to look back on but we can look at the leader's record and the record of two-stroke leaders on the PGA Tour.

McCarty has led or been tied for the lead four times previously and he has a 50% strike rate.

He was three in front at The Ascendant on the Korn Ferry Tour in July but a 75 on Sunday saw him finish fifth.

That would have been huge disappointing, but he learnt from the experience immediately, winning the following week by three, having been tied for the lead with a round to go.

Just two weeks later. he finished second at the Utah Championship, having been tied at the top after round three but that appeared to inspire him too.

He came from off the pace to win his second title (trailed by four after 54 holes) a week later and two weeks after that he successfully converted a one-stroke lead at the Boise Open to secure his place on the PGA Tour.

It's been a rapid rise and it's impossible to know how he will handle the pressure of his first 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour in only his second start on the Tour. And I wouldn't be in a rush to side with him at around 7/42.75.

Conditions should suit him. It's very hard to make up ground in low scoring events so that's very much in his favour, but since the start of 2019, only 16 of the 49 players to lead by two after three rounds on the PGA Tour have converted (34%) and we have to bear in mind that there are as many as four players tied for second place.

The third-round leader, Stephan Jaegar, is the man the market considers most likely to prosper should McCarty not kick on and win and that makes sense.

He was an impressive winner of the Houston Open back in March and he's the only player inside the top-six that isn't ranked inside the top-eight for Putting Average or the top-12 for Strokes Gained: Putting.

At a course this easy, it was always going to boil down to who holes the most putts so the fact he's sitting tied for second after three rounds ranking 40^th for PA and 20^th for SG: Putting is testament to just how well he's hitting it tee-to-green.

If he holes a few more putts today he could be the one to overhaul McCarty and had I not already got the leader onside, he'd be the one that would be tempting me this morning but I'm happy to sit on my hands now and cheer on McCarty.

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19:50 - October 12, 2024

The third round of the Open de France is all over and Jesper Svensson is still out in front. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:45.

Jesper Svensson -13 4.57/2
Thorbjorn Olesen -12 4.47/2
Sam Bairstow -12 9.28/1
Joe Dean -11 14.013/1
Dan Bradbury -11 16.015/1
Yannik Paul -10 20.539/2
Matthew Jordan -10 23.022/1
Francesco Laporta-10 36.035/1
Simon Forsstrom -10 55.054/1
Gunner Wiebe -10 110.0109/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -9 22.021/1
-9 and 70.069/1 bar

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, we've witnessed all sorts of drama here over the years.

Off the pace winners are fairly common and it's a tough place to lead.

We've seen winners come from two, three, four, five and seven adrift at Paris National recently and when Graeme McDowell defended the title a decade ago, he trailed by eight with a round to go, and frontrunners tend to struggle.

Since Pablo Larrazabal won his first DP World Tour event here in 2008, leading after every round, we've seen 19 players lead or co-lead here after three rounds and only three of them went on to win.

Although plenty of strokes have been made up on a Sunday, every winner has been inside the top-10, so that's a negative for Rasmus Hojgaard, who sits tied for 11th.

This is a very tricky leaderboard to assess and I'm happy to leave it alone for now.

I suspect there'll be all sorts of trading opportunities in round four, as there so often is here, and opposing anyone that goes odds-on may be a great way to play it tomorrow but if forced to pick one out now it would be the favourite, Thorbjorn Olesen.

The 34 year old Dane has already won eight times on the DP World Tour and he's far and away the most experienced player on the leaderboard.

I'm happy to leave him alone at 7/24.50 but it's hard to argue that he's too short at that price.

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14:20 - October 12, 2024

Just the briefest of updates to inform that in addition to backing Ben Kohles at 11.010/1, I've also now had a small bet on Matt McCarty at 7.06/1.

As detailed this morning, he could easily pick up two more birdies when he returns to the course and he's a fair price at 7.06/1 if he only makes one to get to within one.

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08:05 - October 12, 2024

Darkness stopped play at the Black Desert Championship yesterday with eight groups still on the course but unlike in Paris, where the halfway leaderboard is set, despite a few players still to make it to the halfway stage, we're likely to see some change in Utah when round two resumes at 10:15 ET today.

Stephan Jaeger, who's one of very few men to get the better of Scottie Scheffler on a Sunday this year, leads on 14-under-par after he shot an eight-under-par 63 on Friday but Matt McCarty trails by two with three to play and he looks like closing the gap to one at least.

Jaeger, who beat Scheffler and five others by a stroke at the Houston Open at the end of March, is the current 4/15.00 favourite but McCarty, who has just graduated to the PGA Tour having won three times in two months on the Korn Ferry Tour, is in prime position to birdie the par five seventh and he'll be odds-on to birdie the par five ninth as well given it currently averages 4.76.

McCarty is a 4/15.00 shot on the High Street so there's an argument to be made that he's a fair price at in excess of 5/16.00 on the exchange but the one I like is Ben Kohles, who made a hole-in-one on Thursday.

Kohles was at the very top of my shortlist when I first looked at the event.

As highlighted in the preview, I thought form at Crag Ranch, also designed by Tom Weiskopf, would hold up here and Kohles traded at just 1.111/9 to win the Byron Nelson there in May but I was hoping he'd be bigger than he was before the off.

He was a 600.0599/1 chance in Texas back in May and he was a 200.0199/1 shot last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship so I turned my nose up at the 80.079/1 available this week but I'm regretting that now.

Odds of around 10.09/1 aren't huge for someone yet to win on the PGA Tour but he's clearly enjoying the course given he sits ties for second, despite a slow start on Thursday, and up with the pace is likely to be the place to be.

Making up ground is hard when the scoring is as low as it is this week and with very little wind predicted over the weekend, I suspect the winner is already inside the top eight places.

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22:45 - October 11, 2024

We've very nearly reached the halfway stage of the Open de France, with one group still to finish up round two, and a rain softened Le Golf National is still yielding to some low scores.

The scoring in round two was even better than it was on day one and the day one early starters have enjoyed the better of the draw, with those drawn AM-PM averaging 1.5 strokes better than those that started the event on Thursday afternoon.

The first round leader, Jesper Svensson, is still tied for the lead, despite being drawn pm-am but he's one of only three players inside the top-eight places that started on Thursday afternoon. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:30

Thomas Detry -9 6.611/2
Jesper Svensson -9 10.09/1
Dan Bradbury -9 14.527/2
Rasmus Hojgaard -8 6.05/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -8 8.27/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -8 26.025/1
Paul Waring -8 28.027/1
Simon Forsstrom -8 70.069/1
Justin Rose -7 17.016/1
Matthew Jordan -7 34.033/1
Yannik Paul -6 34.033/1
Ewen Ferguson -6 46.045/1
-6 and 70.069/1 bar

We've got three tied at the top, and Svensson looks a reasonable price but the stats are against him.

A trio of players were tied for the lead at halfway at the Olympics here back in August and none of them managed to get over the line and last year's Open de France result demonstrates just how tough it is to win from the front here.

Jordan Smith, who led by three at halfway last year, was the 15th person to hold a clear lead at halfway here this century and he was the 13^th to get beat. And he was the fourth to lead by three to fail to win.

With as many as eight players separated by just a stroke at the top of the leaderboard, this is obviously a tough event to call but I'm happy to take a small chance on Sweden's Simon Forsstrom at a huge price.

Playing from the wrong side of the draw, the 35-year-old sits tied for fourth and just one back of the front three and he looks a big price at 70.069/1.

He's far from a consistent performer but he won twice on the Nordic Golf League back in 2022 and he was an impressive wire-to-wire winner of the Soudal Open on the DP World Tour in May last year.

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19:50 - October 10, 2024

It rained almost all day long in Paris yesterday and as a result Le Golf National played soft and easy today with lift, clean and place in operation from the short grass for the first round of the Open de France.

There was a draw bias in favour of the morning starters of 1.39 and from the AM side of the draw, Joe Dean and Thorbjorn Olesen posted six-under-par 65s to set the pace.

Those two were out in front for much of the day but after a bogey at the par four 13^th, following a scruffy chip from behind the green, Sweden's Jesper Svensson birdied the next four holes and parred the last to join them.

Olesen heads the market at a shade under 7/18.00 but the one I like is fellow Dane, Nicolai Hojgaard, who shot five-under this afternoon.

Nicolai hasn't been playing well of late and there's an obvious risk that today was a flash in the pan but with an early start in the morning, I thought he was a fair price at around 16/117.00.

Over on the PGA Tour, the morning starters haven't yet finished their opening rounds at the inaugural Black Desert Championship but at the time of writing, we've already got 13 players at five-under-par or better and we've already seen a hole-in-one at the Black Desert Resort!

151 yards IN!

One of the first highlights from @BDChampionship is the event's first-ever ace AND first-career ace from @Ben_Kohles!

(Presented by @CocaCola) pic.twitter.com/QQpraczNEl

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 10, 2024

It's clearly a very easy track but it's very easy on the eye and an enjoyable watch.

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Open de France Pre-Event Pick:
Ewen Ferguson @ 80.079/1

In-Play Picks:
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 17.533/2
Simon Forsstrom @ 70.069/1

Black Desert Championship Pre-Event Picks:
Patton Kizzire @ 60.059/1
K.H Lee @ 100.099/1 (see Find Me a 100 Winner column)
Nick Taylor @ 110.0109/1 (see Find Me a 100 Winner column)

In-Play Picks:
Ben Kohles @ 11.010/1
Matt McCarty @ 7.06/1

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Find Me a 100 Winner column

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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