The Punter

Open de France: Ferguson fancied at 79/1

Golfer Ryo Hisatsune
Ryo Hisatsune after his victory last year

The DP World Tour hops from Scotland to Paris for the Open de France and Steve Rawlings is back with his detailed preview ahead of Thursday's start here...

  • Scrambling a key stat in Paris

  • Briliant event for longshots and trading

  • Read my Black Desert Championship preview here


Tournament History

France's Arnaud Massy, who won the Open Championship in 1907, won the first two editions of this event in 1906 and 1907 and the Open de France is the oldest national open in Continental Europe.

The tournament wasn't played during the war years, and we lost two editions because of the pandemic so this is the 106th edition.

The Open de France has been a mainstay on the DP World Tour since its inception 50 years ago.


Venue

Le Golf National, Paris


Course Details

Par 71, 7,247 yards
Stroke index in 2023 - 71.69

Le Golf National only opened in 1990 but it's already establishing itself as a truly great venue that provides an extremely demanding test.

It's a fairly exposed track with a linksy feel and undulating fairways of average width. The greens are bentgrass, of an average size, and they usually run at around 12 on the stimpmeter. Water is in play on holes 1, 2, 13, 15, 16 and 18.

LE GOLF NATIONAL 7.jpgIt's a stadium style course designed by Hubert Chesneau and Robert Van Hagge and it underwent some significant changes prior to the 2016 edition, in preparation for the Ryder Cup in 2018.

In addition to being the venue for this event since 1991 (apart form 1999), Le Golf National also hosted the Olympics in August when Scottie Scheffler claimed gold having trailed by four with a round to go.


Weather Forecast


TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 on Thursday.


Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Ryo Hisatsune -14 110.0109/1
2022 - Guido Migliozzi -16 130.0129/1
2020 & '21 - Event cancelled
2019 - Nicolas Colsaerts -12 160.0159/1
2018 - Alex Noren -7 19.5
2017 - Tommy Fleetwood -12 25.024/1
2016 - Thongchai Jaidee -11 75.074/1
2015 - Bernd Wiesberger -13 38.037/1


What Will it Take to Win the Open de France?

Accuracy is far more important than distance off the tee at Le Golf National, as demonstrated perfectly by last year's winner, Ryo Hisatsune, who ranked 68th for Driving Distance and sixth for Driving Accuracy.

There weren't any DD stats produced for the Olympics but Jon Rahm, who really should have won gold, hit more fairways than anyone else and over the last 18 years at this event, the winners have had an average DD ranking of 34.9 and an average DA ranking of 12.8.

Hisatsune ranked sixth for Greens In Regulation last year and Guido Migliozzi only ranked 14th for GIR when he won in 2022, but ten of the last 17 winners would have ranked inside the top-three for GIR and the 2022 runner-up, Rasmus Hojgaard, as well as Jordan Smith, who finished toed second last year, both ranked second for that key metric.

Guido Migliozzi Open de France.jpg

Hisatsune ranked only 14th Scrambling but that's usually the key stat here. Migliozzi topped the Scrambling rankings two years ago, Thongchai Jaidee ranked second when he won here in 2016, the 2015 winner, Bernd Wiesberger, ranked third, when the top-five scramblers all finished inside the top-six places.

Jaidee also finished runner-up here ten years ago when he also ranked second for Scrambling, with Mathew Baldwin, who finished 5th, ranking first. In 2013, six of the first seven home ranked inside the top-eight for Scrambling and 12 years ago, four of the first six home ranked in the top-six for that stat.

GIR is a stat to concentrate on, but Scrambling looks the most important and the top scrambler for the week has finished in the places in 16 of the last 19 renewals.

As many as three of the top four ranked inside the top-seven for Putting Average last year but it's not unusual to see someone to rank poorly for putting and win.

Alex Noren only ranked 37th for Putting Average in 2018, Fleetwood's PA ranking in 2017 was only 53rd, Wiesberger ranked just 33rd in 2016 and the three winners between 2011 and 2013 had an average PA ranking of just 25.6.


Is There an Angle In?

Hisatsune was playing here for the first time when he won 12 months ago and the two tournament winners before him didn't have a strong set of course numbers but prior to 2019, course form was king at Le Golf National.

The 2018 winner, Alex Noren, took his time to get to grips with the track, he missed his first three cuts and his next four visits yielded form figures reading 78-37-14-MC, but he was trending in the right direction having finished eighth in 2016 and tenth in 2017.

Both Graeme McDowell and Jean-Francois Remesy have won the event back-to-back and there was enough evidence in the 2016 renewal alone to highlight how important course form is...

Jaidee had finished second and tenth in the two previous renewals, the runner-up to Jaidee, Francesco Molinari, was occupying that finishing position for the third time here, Rory McIlroy finished third, six years after he'd finished fourth on his previous visit, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, who finished fourth, had also placed in each of the two previous editions and former winner, Martin Kaymer, finished fifth.

It's old form now and only worth a brief mention but there's plenty pf evidence to suggest that there's a very strong correlation between the host venue Celtic Manor and Le Golf National, and Colsaerts boosted the link at the 2019 edition of this event.

Colsaerts was fourth in the 2014 edition of the Wales Open and the three winners of that event between 2010 and 2012 at Celtic Manor were Graeme McDowell, Noren and Jaidee, who have all won here.

When Joost Luiten claimed the Welsh title ahead of Colsaerts in 2014, the 2017 Open de France winner, Fleetwood finished second.

The man who finished second to Fleetwood here in 2017, Peter Uihlein, was the runner-up in Wales in 2013, and finally, South Africa's Richard Sterne has finished second at both venues. It's an old link now but it looks a great link.

The 2022 winner, Migliozzi, is an in-and-out performer and he often goes off at a triple-figure price, but he finished fourth and 14th in his first two appearances in the US Open.

Paris winners G-Mac, Martin Kaymer and Reteif Goosen have all won the US Open and two other winners here, Fleetwood and Colin Montgomerie have gone close in what's widely regarded as the toughest major.


Is There an Identikit Winner?

Between 2006 and 2013, six of the eight Open de France winners were matched at a triple-figure price before the off, so it was a reasonable event for longshots.

Things changed after that though and the next five winners were all plausible candidates, but it's swung the other way again now and following Hisatsune's victory last year, the last three winners have all going off at more than 100.099/1.


Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Ryo Hisatsune - solo fifth - trailing by four 32.031/1
2022 - Guido Migliozzi -T9 - trailing by five 90.089/1
2020 & '21 - Event cancelled
2019 - Nicolas Colsaerts led by three strokes 2.001/1
2018 - Alex Noren T7 - trailing by seven strokes 42.041/1
2017 - Tommy Fleetwood T3 - trailing by two 5.14/1
2016 - Thongchai Jaidee - led by two 3.953/1
2015 - Bernd Wiesberger - solo third - trailing by three 6.86/1


In-Play Tactics

Every winner here has been inside the top-ten places through 54 holes, and that includes Scheffler at the Olympics, who sat tied for sixth and four back, but Guido Migliozzi pushed that that stat to the max two years ago given he was tied ninth through three rounds.

We've seen winners come from two, three, four, five and seven adrift at Paris National and when McDowell defended the title a decade ago, he trailed by eight with a round to go!

Noren trailed by seven with a round to go in 2018 and he was one of five men to trade at odds-on in round four! Marcus Kinult, who had led after round three, was matched at a low of 1.8810/11, Jon Rahm hit 1.981/1, Julian Suri was matched at 1.9520/21 and the eventual second, Chris Wood, traded all the way down to 1.454/9 before bogeys at 15 and 17 did for his chances.

With water in play on ten holes and with such a tough finish, Le Golf National is a great place to take on odds-on shots. Rahm hot 1.182/11 at the Olympics before he lost his way on the back nine but that's almost the norm here!

Jordan Smith was matched at almost 1/101.10 in round four of this event last year when he led by six, Rasmus Hojgaard was matched at a low of 1.42/5 before finishing second two years ago and in the 2019 edition (no event in 2020 or 2021), J.B Hansen hit a low of 1.241/4 and George Coetzee hit 1.330/100 before the third round leader, Nicolas Colsaerts, who had led by three with a round to go, rallied to take the title. And Colsaerts is a bit of a rarity...

Since Pablo Larrazabal won his first DP World Tour event here in 2008, leading after every round, we've seen 19 players lead or co-lead here after three rounds and Colsaerts is one of only three to convert. And that includes Xander Schauffele at the Olympics.

As Ewen Ferguson demonstrated perfectly last year when he putted into the water on the very first hole, there's danger everywhere but it's a particularly tough finish.

Previously a par five, the 18th is very often the hardest hole on the course but after the par five 14th, it's a tough finish all round, so if your fancy is in front with four to play you might want to bank some profit and if you're planning to trade in running on Sunday, anyone already in the house will have a distinct advantage on anyone on the same score with holes to play.

That may seem obvious, but the market always favours those still on the course, with optimistic punters imagining birdies, but in reality, playing the last four holes in level-par is a great finish and very few play the 72nd hole as well as Migliozzi did two years ago.


Rasmus commands respect

The recent BMW PGA Championship winner, Billy Horschel, and the Irish Open winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, are vying for favouritism, despite both men missing the 54-hole cut at last week's Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

This is Horschel's second visit to Le Golf National and he'll be looking to build on last year's tied 20th on debut. Rasmus his playing here for the third time.

As highlighted above, the young Dane finished second two years ago, having traded at odds-on and he finished fourth last year so he's very hard to dismiss, even at odds of less than 16/117.00.

Thriston Lawrence and Matt Wallace are vying for third favouritism and I'm happy to swerve them both.

Lawrence has finished 20th and 35th in his first two visits here but he's only broken 70 once and Wallace, whose form has been regressive since he won the European Masters, has failed to make it to the weekend on the two occasions that he's played here.

Jordan Smith, who traded at long odds-on 12 months ago, is just too unreliable in-contention and Thorbjorn Olesen, who trades at a couple of ticks bigger, looks a better option.

The Dane won the pairs event at St Andrews last week and he finished 12th in the individual event. He arrives in fair form and he has some very decent form here, with course numbers reading 2-MC-MC-MC-W-3-MC-20-10-14.


Ferguson fancied at a big price

Ewen Ferguson showed his liking for the venue 12 months ago and he looks to have been slightly over-looked.

He has disappointing form figures reading MC-22-MC-MC-36-18-MC but he's playing better than those numbers suggest. After a week off following his missed cut at the Open de Espana, he'll be far fresher than those who contended last week's pro-am marathon in Scotland.

Ewen Ferguson BMW International.jpg

Ferguson's stats look far better than his results suggest and it's worth bearing in mind that he sat fourth at the halfway stage of the Irish Open last month, before a 77 on Saturday derailed his chances.

As a three-time DP World Tour winner, and with course form in the bank, I thought he was just big enough to side with modestly at 80.079/1.


Now read my Black Desert Championship preview here


*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


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