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Putting the key to success at Club de Campo
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Long-shots have a great record
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Read my Baycurrent Classic preview here
Tournament History
The Open de Espana dates all the way back to 1912 and apart from 2017, when it was missing from the schedule, and 2020, when it was lost to the pandemic, it's been a regular on the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972.
Venue
Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid
Course Details
Par 71, 7154 yards
The Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is a traditional inland course that sits 2,500 feet above sea level. It's a hilly course with sloping tree-lined fairways and well-bunkered, undulating greens.
Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has been the host course for the last five editions of this event and prior to that it was last seen on the DP World Tour back in 2008 when it hosted the first of four editions of the now defunct Madrid Masters, won by Charl Schwartzel.
It was also the venue for the now defunct Open de Madrid between 2001 and 2005 and it also hosted this event in 1996, as well as the final edition of another now defunct event, the Turespaña Masters in 2000.
It's a short track and in benign conditions, it can succumb to some very low scores. Ross McGowan opened the 2021 edition with a ten-under-par 61 and Marcel Siem signed off the 2023 edition with a 61. And Jon Rahm shot a nine-under-par 62 in round four when winning the event for a third time three years ago.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:00 on Thursday.
Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2023 - Angel Hidalgo -14 (playoff) 420.0419/1
2023 - Matthieu Pavon -23 120.0119/1
2022 - Jon Rahm -25 3.55/2
2021 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello -19 (playoff) 110.0109/1
2020 - Tournament Cancelled
2019 - Jon Rahm -22 4.03/1
2018 - Jon Rahm -20 5.04/1
2017 - No Tournament
What Will it Take to Win the Open de Espana?
Here's the last 13 course winners, together with their winning scores and whatever traditional stats I could obtain.
2023 Open de Espana
Angel Hidalgo -14 DD: 37, DA: 13, GIR: 8, SC: 15, PA: 1
2023 Open de Espana
Matthieu Pavon -25 DD: 20, DA: 20, GIR: 28, SC: 3, PA: 4
2022 Open de Espana
Jon Rahm -25 DD: 2, DA: 27, GIR: 12, SC: 7, PA: 2
2021 Open de Espana
Rafa Cabrera-Bello -19 DD: 52, DA: 20, GIR: 25, SC: 2, PA: 22
2019 Open de Espana
Jon Rahm -22 DD: 1, DA: 3, GIR: 12, SC: 3, PA: 1
2008 Madrid Masters
Charl Schwartzel -19 DD: 21, DA: 10, GIR: 2, SC: 6, PA: 20
2005 Open de Madrid
Raphael Jacquelin -23 DD: 10, DA: 23, GIR: 34, SC: 10, PA: 1
2004 Open de Madrid
Richard Sterne -18 DD: 2, DA: 61, GIR: 22, SC: 14, PA: 5
2003 Open de Madrid
Ricardo Gonzalez -14 DD: 4, DA: 66, GIR: 10, SC: n/a, PA: n/a
2002 Open de Madrid
Steen Tinning -19 DD: 60, DA: 1, GIR: 2, SC: n/a, PA: n/a
2001 Open de Madrid
Retief Goosen -20 DD: 26, DA: 55, GIR: 1, SC: n/a, PA: n/a
2000 Turespaña Masters
Padraig Harrington -17 DD: 13, DA: 94, GIR: 19, SC: n/a, PA: n/a
1996 Open de Espana
Padraig Harrington -16 No Stats
DD = Diving Distance
DA = Driving Accuracy
GIR = Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average
Accurate iron play is clearly important given 34th is the worst any of the last 12 winners has ranked for Greens In Regulation and Scrambling has often been a key stat too, but the data is limited.
We've had Strokes Gained stats for the last five editions here and the metric that stands out is SG: Tee-to-Green with the winners ranking first, third, first, 15th and fourth. Last year's runner-up, Jon Rahm, ranked first.
Rahm has finished first and second for Putting Average on the two occasions he's won here, he ranked 10th last year when beaten in extra time, and when he's finished down the field it's been the putter that's held him back.
Last year's winner, Angel Hidalgo, topped the PA rankings last year, and in the eight editions that we have flat-stick data, six winners have ranked inside the top five for PA so that's the key stat to concentrate on.
Course form key at Club de Campo
Having finished tied for 34th on debut in 2022, Hidalgo missed the cut a year later so he arrived with no course form to speak of but that's unusual and course form usually counts for plenty here.
Rahm has won here three times and Pavon had finished second in 2022, before winning in 2023, but the 2021 edition is as good a guide as any to highlight just how well course form stands up here. Cabrera-Bello beat Adri Arnaus in extra time, and the pair had finished second and fourth behind Rahm in the 2019 edition.
Like Rahm, Padraig Harrington has won here twice, and he was second behind Ricardo Gonzalez in 2003 before Gonzalez finished second to Charl Schwartzel in 2008. Rafael Jacquelin was fourth the year before he won here, Retief Goosen had course form figures reading 11-1-7, Brian Davis finished third in 2001 and second in 2002 and Paul Lawrie played here six times and finished inside the top six three times.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
In the 21 years that followed Seve's third and final Open de Espana victory back in 1995, only three Spaniards won the title.
Sergio Garcia won it in 2002, Alvaro Quiros in 2010, and Miguel Angel Jimenez's 21st and final DP World Tour title came in this tournament in 2014, but the home contingent is really enjoying the event of late.
Spaniard, David Puig, traded at as short as 1.331/3 when he led by three after seven holes in round four last year, before going on to finish tied for third, and five of the last six editions have gone the way of a Spaniard. And the odd man out, Mattieu Pavon, has Spanish roots.
The Frenchman's grandfather was from Madrid, but he moved to France after the Spanish Civil War.
An Englishman has won two of the last eight renewals and British and Irish players have a decent record in this event, but three South Africans have won at this venue and Zander Lombard has finished fourth and second in two of the last three renewals here.
Great Event for Longshots
Jon Rahm has won three of the last six editions but him apart, outsiders have flourished in this event lately.
James Morrison was a 500.0499/1 chance when winning a decade ago, Andrew Johnston went off at 140.0139/1 a year later, Cabrera-Bello was a 110.0109/1 shot four years ago, Pavon was generally a 120.0119/1 chance before the off two years ago and Hidalgo went off at a monstrous 420.0419/1 last year.
Having a saver on Rahm and picking out a few longshots appears the best way to play the event if recent history is anything to go by.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2024 - Angel Hidalgo - led by two 3.613/5
2023 - Matthieu Pavon - led by two 2.6413/8
2022 - Jon Rahm - led by a stroke 1.715/7
2021 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello - led by two 2.546/4
2020 - Tournament Cancelled
2019 - Jon Rahm - solo fourth, trailing by two 3.02/1
In-Play Tactics
The last two victors have won wire-to-wire and Jon Rahm was inside the top five places all week long when he won here in 2021. And he sat inside the top four places all week in 2019 when he won here for the first time.
The two course winners before Rahm were both within two of the lead after round one and in front after rounds two and three and Padraig Harrington was never headed after 36 holes in both 1996 and 2000, but a slow start can be overcome.
The 2021 playoff protagonists, Cabrera-Bello and Adri Arnaus, both trailed by six after round one, as did Ricardo Gonzalez (2003) and Richard Sterne (2004). And Gonzalez trailed by 11 at halfway and by six with a round to go!
The first three holes have averaged over-par in each of the last five editions so it's a slightly tricky start but it's not a tough track by any means and a fast finish is possible.
Grant Forrest flew home at the end in 2021, playing the last seven holes in seven-under-par to grab a share of third and he did something similar last year.
The Scotsman sat tied for 22nd and 10 back after 54 holes but a 64 on Sunday saw him finish tied for third again and Marcel Siem shot 61 in round four two years ago so it's the sort of venue at which a late run can be made.
Rahm backed for a fourth win
Given how much grief the LIV Tour gets from PGA Tour and DP World Tour fans and players, it's a bit bizarre to see the Open de Espana market dominated by LIV representatives.
The first and second on the LIV Tour's 2025 Individual Standings list, Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann, are first and second in the betting here, with the number 10 in the standings, David Puig, third best in the betting.
Other LIV rebels, Patrick Reed, Tom McKibbin, and Sergio Garcia are also in the top 12 in the list but it's the favourite, Rahm, that I simply can't ignore.
Rahm loves the venue and with course form figures reading 1-17-1-9-2, he's a very fair price at around 7/24.50.
Back Jon Rahm
The 30-year-old has gone more than a year without winning but he finished runner-up in his last two LIV Golf events, finished strongly in his last individual event, at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, where a 66 on Sunday saw him climb up into 13th place and he performed nicely at the Ryder Cup two weeks ago.
He traded at as short as 1.42/5 before getting beat in extra time last year and he's won three of the last six editions so odds of more than 3/14.00 look well worth taking.