Omega European Masters: MacIntyre fancied at 39/1

• Sensational scrambling skills required

• Will the Ryder Cup Bubble Boys contend?

• Will the cream rise to the top again at Crans

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Tournament History

Founded as the Swiss Open in 1923, the Omega European Masters has been staged at the stunning Crans-sur-Sierre course since 1939 and it's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972.

Venue

Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland.

Course Details

Par 70, 6824yards
Stroke index in 2022 - 69.04

With the spectacular Crans Montana mountain range constantly in view, Crans-sur-Sierre is very easy on the eye.

The course dates right back to 1908 but it's been tweaked quite a bit of late. Significant changes came in 1999, when Seve Ballesteros oversaw a redesign, and prior to the 2013 renewal, changes were made to four holes (10, 12, 13 and 17) with the biggest coming at the par three 13th, which now has a couple of lakes in front of the green and a seating area behind it.

Further changes were made to holes one, two, four, five, nine and 14 in 2014. The fairways and fairway bunkers were remodelled on holes one, two and four. The tee was moved back by 25 yards on the par four fifth, making the hole no longer drivable, and the ninth was completely remodelled with changes to the fairway and bunkering, as well as a completely new green and green complex.

The 14th hole, previously an easy par five, was reduced in length by just 38 yards and changed to a par four but it reverted back to a par five prior to the 2015 edition and it's been played as a par five ever since.

The opening hole used to be a very easy par five but that was changed to a par four eight years ago. It was the hardest hole on the course again last year and the start here is fairly challenging with the next three holes ranking fifth, third and second.

The fairways are slopey, mostly tree-lined, and of average width and the greens are small and shaped like upturned-saucers. Water is in-play on six holes - 10, 12, 13, 14, 17 and 18 - while holes six and seven are short drivable par fours. Hardly anyone takes on the very narrow sixth, but the vast majority will have a dig at the 7th. It was the second easiest hole on the course last year, averaging 3.58, and there were 15 eagle twos there during the week.

The par five 14^th was the easiest, averaging only 4.52, and there 30 eagles made there throughout the week.

Crans is at altitude, so it doesn't play anywhere near as long as it's already short yardage.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 UK time on Thursday.

Last Eight Winners with Exchange Prices

• 2022 - Thriston Lawrence -18 (playoff) 44.043/1
• 2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard -13 55.054/1
• 2020 - Event Cancelled
• 2019 - Sebastian Soderberg -14 (playoff) 540.0539/1
• 2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 (playoff) 13.012/1
• 2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -14 (playoff) 30.029/1
• 2016 - Alex Noren -17 (playoff) 19.018/1
• 2015 - Danny Willett -17 18.017/1
• 2014 - David Lipsky -18 (playoff) 260.0259/1

What Will it Take to Win?

The Driving stats are always a little misleading here and probably not that useful. The course is short and at altitude so there's absolutely no need to go bombing it off the tee.

The driver stays in the bag for most of the holes and neither the Driving Distance nor the Driving Accuracy stats are much use, as demonstrated perfectly by last year's victor, Thriston Lawrence, who ranked 59^th for DD and 70^th for DA!

Accuracy is slightly more important than power however and Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked first for Driving Accuracy in 2018 and 16^th when he won in 2017 and the 2021 winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, ranked second for D.A.

The 2019 winner, Sebastian Soderberg, only ranked 33^rd for Greens In Regulation but Lawrence ranked 11^th, Hojgaard ranked third two years ago, and the first and second in 2018, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Lucas Bjerregaard, ranked second and first for GIR. And that's the key stat.

Fitzpatrick only ranked 16^th for GIR in 2017 but the man who lost in the playoff for a second year running, Scot Hend, ranked number one and GIR and Scrambling are usually the key stats here.

Looking back, eight of the last 16 winners have ranked either first or second for GIR but had Hend won the two playoffs in 2016 and 2017, and Hojgaard ranked second instead of third, that would have read an incredible 11 from 16.

Year after year, finding these small greens with frequency is the key to victory but if you are going to miss the odd one, getting up-and down with regularity is vital.

The last two winners have ranked only 17^th and ninth for Scrambling but the two beaten playoff protagonists in each of the last two years, Matt Wallace and Bernd Wiesberger, both topped the Scrambling stats.

As many as five of the last nine winners have ranked first, second or third for Scrambling and that trend extends further back in time with ten of the last 16 winners having ranked no worse than sixth for Scrambling.

Strokes gained figures have only been produced for the last three editions and nothing stands out but here are the last three winners with their rankings for each of the main SG categories.

• Lawrence Tee 58 App 1 ATG 22 T2G 2 P 19
• Hojgaard Tee 2 App 5 ATG 66 T2G 8 P 12
• Soderberg Tee 8 App 35 ATG 7 T2G 9 P 17

Stats Key

• Tee = Strokes Gained off the Tee
• App = Strokes Gained on Approach
• ATG = Strokes Gained Around the Green
• T2G = Strokes Gained Tee to Green
• P = Strokes Gained Putting

Is There an Angle In?

Course form holds up exceptionally well at this quirky and beautiful venue.

Matthew Fitzpatrick has figures here reading MC-2-7-1-1-69 and he's one of 12 players to win at the venue at least twice.

The 2015 winner, Danny Willett, was playing Crans for a seventh time and he'd previously finished second and fifth. The 2013 winner, Thomas Bjorn, was winning the title for a second time in three years, the 2012 winner, Richie Ramsay, has twice finished inside the top-ten since and the 2010 victor, Miguel Angel Jimenez, has nine other top-tens to his name.

And Rory McIlroy and Scott Hend haven't won the title but they've both lost two playoffs.

Previous course experience is certainly not an essential prerequisite though and the last three winners were all playing here for the first time.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Soderberg was very much a surprise winner four years ago, but the four winners before him were fairly well-fancied and the last two winners were easy enough to fancy in very open heats. Only two players were trading at less than 30.029/1 before the off last year and it was 25/126.00 the field in 2021.

Crans-sur-Sierre has often produced a big-name winner and the Omega European Masters has an impressive list of winners with many true greats having won here.

Thomas Bjorn, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood have all won here in the modern era and the 2015 champ, Danny Willett, joins an illustrious list of major champions to have taken this title. Sir Nick Faldo, Seve, Jose Maria Olazabal, Ian Woosnam and Ernie Els have all won here.

The cream often rises to the top and concentrating hard on the market leaders usually makes sense, although we have another factor to consider this year...

Will the Ryder Cup Bubble Boys contend?

There will be plenty of Ryder Cup chat this week as players look to impress the European team's captain, Luke Donald, who will announce his team next Tuesday, but the likes of Nicolai Hojgaard and Ludvig Aberg might be worth swerving with so much on the line.

Hojgaard is doing all the right things and he's saying the right things too.

"The only thing you can do is focus on yourself, do your preparation, do your work, go out and do your best and hopefully we can be in Luke's mind when we get to after Switzerland. We are just trying to go out and do as good as we can, hopefully that'll be good enough."

That quote by Hojgaard was after he'd put himself into position to win at the halfway stage in Prague last week, but he eventually finished a well-beaten third and after a fast start, Aberg dropped away in round three before finishing a never-nearer tied fourth.

It's hard enough to win without the pressure of Ryder Cup qualification and I'd favour those that are already in the team or not in with any sort of chance of playing in Rome over those in-contention for a place.

Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

• 2022 - Thriston Lawrence led by three 1.9110/11
• 2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard tied 15^th - trailing by four 48.047/1
• 2020 - Event Cancelled
• 2019 - Sebastian Soderberg tied ninth - trailing by four 100.099/1
• 2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick led by two 1.738/11
• 2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick tied third - trailing by four 9.08/1
• 2016 - Alex Noren solo second - trailing by a stroke 2.6813/8
• 2015 - Danny Willett tied for the lead 2.285/4
• 2014 - David Lipsky solo fourth - trailing by three 16.015/1

In-Play Tactics

Ramus Hojgaard was matched at 150.0149/1 in-running in 2021 and Soderberg hit 1000.0999/1 in 2019. Both men trailed by four strokes with a round to go but most winners are bang up with the pace from halfway here.

Fitzpatrick sat tied for 15^th and just three off the lead after day one when he won here for the first time in 2017 but like Soderberg and Hojgaard, he was five adrift at halfway and that's unusually far back for winners here.

He was trailing by five after round one in 2018 and the man he beat in the playoff, Lucas Bjerregaard, was four off the lead but they both made up ground on Friday and they sat tied for second at halfway.

Noren hit a high of 40.039/1 after a slow start in 2016 had seen him sit tied for 40^th and five off the lead, after he'd opened up with a one-under-par 69, and other recent winners, David Lipsky, Richie Ramsay and Thomas Bjorn have also trailed by at least five strokes after round one so a slow start can be overcome but you usually need to get a shift on in round two...

A second round 63 saw Noren shoot up into a tie for fourth, just one off the lead, and Hojgaard, Soderberg, Fitzpatrick in 2017, and Ramsay, who trailed by four in 2012, are the only winners since 1997 to be any further than three off the lead at halfway.

You generally need a fast start and in the 23 editions since 1999, nine halfway leaders have gone on to win and two have been beaten in playoffs. A strike rate of 39% for 36-hole leaders is pretty impressive.

Bjorn and Ramsay both won easily by four strokes but we usually get a tight finish here and seven of the last nine renewals have gone to extra time - offering up a great chance to trade late on.

If you are going to get involved in-running, bear in mind that the two par fives on the back-nine, 14 and 15, are reachable in two and they offer up a great chance to score, but the par three 16^th is tough and any gains at 14 and/or 15 can soon be given back.

Lawrence, who had led by three after 54 holes (sat second at halfway), bogeyed the 16th hole last year but he eventually won with a regulation par at the first extra hole when Matt Wallace missed his par putt from about six feet.

Market Leaders

Having played here for six years in-a-row from 2014, producing form figures reading MC-2-7-1-1-69, Matthew Fitzpatrick returns to Crans for the first time in four years. After finishing second at the BMW Championship and tied ninth at the Tour Championship over the last two weeks, he arrives in fair form.

The world number eight is far and away the best player in the field and he's already won here twice before. It's impossible to make a case for taking him on and the Sportsbook's Odds Boost from 8/19.00 to 9/110.00 is a very fair offer.

The extremely promising young Swede, Ludvig Aberg, is looking to become the fourth course debutant winner in-a-row but he looks short enough at around 20/121.00.

He's still learning his trade at this level and it's not surprising to see that he keeps throwing in the odd mediocre round when he gets himself into contention. But it's only a matter of time before he strings four strong rounds together to pick up his first title.

Nicolai Hojgaard and Adrian Meronk are next up but both have the added pressure of trying to make the European Ryder Cup team (scenarios here) and that's enough to put me off both.

Selection

Matt Wallace did nothing wrong when finishing second last week in the Czech Republic and he came very close to taking this title 12 months ago. I was very tempted to back him but I've got three outsiders onside for the Find Me a 100 Winner column already, and I couldn't ignore Robert MacIntyre at 40.039/1m so I'm reluctantly leaving out Wallace from the start.

MacIntyre hasn't guaranteed his place on the European Ryder Cup team, but I'd be gobsmacked if he doesn't tee it up in Rome.

He's a winner at the venue, and he's done enough lately to make the team, whether he secures the final spot on the European Points List or not. I wouldn't be surprised if that had been communicated to him by the captain, Luke Donald.

MacIntyre has played here twice and he's yet to make the weekend, so that's a huge negative, but he ranked third for Scrambling when finishing second to Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open and first last week in the Czech Masters when finishing fourth.

With current form reading 4-2-71-MC-4, and with a place as good as assured on the European Ryder Cup team, MacIntyre is simply too big at 40.039/1.

He's almost twice the price of the rookie Aberg and that doesn't make any sense to me.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter