Omega European Masters: Wonderful Willett can go in again

Tournament History

Founded as the Swiss Open in 1923, the Omega European Masters has been staged at the stunning Crans-sur-Sierre course since 1939 and it's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972.

Venue

Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland

Course Details

Par 70, 6848 yards
Stroke index in 2021 - 70.24

With the spectacular Crans Montana mountain range constantly in view, Crans-sur-Sierre is very easy on the eye.

The course dates right back to 1908 but it's been tweaked quite a bit of late. Significant changes came in 1999, when Seve Ballesteros oversaw a redesign, and prior to the 2013 renewal, changes were made to four holes (10, 12, 13 and 17) with the biggest coming at the par three 13th, which now has a couple of lakes in front of the green and a seating area behind it.

Further changes were made to holes one, two, four, five, nine and 14 in 2014. The fairways and fairway bunkers were remodelled on holes one, two and four. The tee was moved back by 25 yards on the par four fifth, making the hole no longer drivable, and the ninth was completely remodelled with changes to the fairway and bunkering, as well as a completely new green and green complex. The 14th hole, previously an easy par five, was reduced in length by just 38 yards and changed to a par four but it reverted back to a par five prior to the 2015 edition and it's been played as a par five ever since.

The opening hole used to be a very easy par five but that was changed to a par four eight years ago. It was the hardest hole on the course again last year and the start here is fairly challenging with the next three holes ranking fifth, third and second.

The par 3 16th, which was a short par four before Seve's redesign, was the fourth toughest hole on the course last year for the second renewal in-a-row.

The fairways are slopey, mostly tree-lined, and of average width and the greens are small and shaped like upturned-saucers.

Water is in-play on six holes - 10, 12, 13, 14, 17 and 18, while holes six and seven are short drivable par fours. Hardly anyone takes on the very narrow sixth but the vast majority will have a dig at the 7th. It was the easiest hole on the course again last year, averaging 3.58, and there were 23 eagle twos there during the course of the week.

Crans is at altitude so it doesn't play anywhere near as long as it's already short yardage.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 UK time on Thursday

Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard -13 55.054/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg -14 540.0539/1
2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 (playoff) 13.012/1
2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -14 (playoff) 30.029/1
2016 - Alex Noren -17 (playoff) 19.018/1
2015 - Danny Willett -17 18.017/1

What Will it Take to Win the Omega European Masters?

The Driving stats are always a little misleading here and probably not that useful. The course is short and at altitude so there's absolutely no need to go bombing it off the tee. The driver stays in the bag for most of the holes and neither the Driving Distance nor the Driving Accuracy stats are much use.

Accuracy is slightly more important than power however and Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked first for Driving Accuracy in 2018 and 16th when he won in 2017 and last year's winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, ranked second for D.A.

The 2019 winner, Sebastian Soderberg, only ranked 31st for DA, the 2016 winner, Alex Noren, ranked 49th and the 2015 champ, Danny Willett, ranked 55th. And when Noren won here for the first time, in 2009, he ranked in the 50s for DA and so did Sergio Garcia in 2005 so although it is a tree-lined track, being arrow-straight off the tee hasn't been imperative.

Soderberg only ranked 33rd for Greens In Regulation three years ago but Hojgaard ranked third, and the first and second in 2018, Fitzpatrick and Lucas Bjerregaard, ranked second and first for GIR. And that's the key stat.

Fitzpatrick only ranked 16th for GIR in 2017 but the man who lost in the playoff for a second year running, Scot Hend, ranked number one and GIR and Scrambling are usually the key stats here.

Looking back, eight of the last 15 winners have ranked either first or second for GIR but had Hend won the two playoffs in 2016 and 2017, and Hojgaard ranked second instead of third, that would have read an incredible 11 from 15.

Year after year, finding these small greens with frequency is the key to victory but if you are going to miss the odd one, getting up-and down with regularity is vital. Hojgaard only ranked ninth but the runner-up, Bernd Wiesberger, who really should have took the title (matched at just 1.121/8 in-running), topped the Scrambling stats.

As many as five of the last eight winners have ranked first, second or third for Scrambling and that trend extends further back in time with ten of the last 15 winners having ranked no worse than sixth for Scrambling.

The last two winners have ranked only 11th and 13th for Par 4 Scoring two years but six of the last 12 winners have ranked number one on the par fours.

Is There an Angle In?

The last two event winners were playing here for the first time but course form holds up exceptionally well at this quirky and beautiful venue.

The US Open winner, Fitzpatrick, has figures here reading MC-2-7-1-1-69 and he's the 12th player to win at the venue at least twice.

The 2015 winner, Danny Willett, was playing Crans for a seventh time and he'd previously finished second and fifth. The 2013 winner, Thomas Bjorn, was winning the title for a second time in three years, the 2012 winner, Richie Ramsay, has twice finished inside the top-ten since and the 2010 victor, Miguel Angel Jimenez, has nine other top-tens to his name.

Rory McIlroy and Scott Hend haven't won the title but they've both lost two playoffs.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Soderberg, who was playing here for the first time, was very much a surprise winner three years ago, but the four winners before him were fairly well-fancied and the first and second 12 months ago weren't unconsidered outsiders. Hojgaard wasn't strongly fancied at 55.054/1 but Wiesberger was the 27.026/1 favourite in a very open market.

Fitzpatrick was a 30.029/1 chance before the off in 2017 but only because he was so badly out of form. He hadn't finished inside the top-40 in any event since June, he'd missed three of his previous seven cuts and his putting stats were abysmal, so his price was understandable, but he went off favourite five years ago and the 2015 and 2016 winners were both third favourites.

Looking at last year's result, Rasmus Hojgaard has surely not finished winning on the DP World Tour and Wiesberger went on to represent Europe in the Ryder Cup a few months after finishing second here.

Crans-sur-Sierre has often produced a big-name winner and the Omega European Masters has an impressive list of winners with many true greats having won here.

Thomas Bjorn, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood have all won here in the modern era and the 2015 champ, Willett, joins an illustrious list of major champions to have taken this title. Sir Nick Faldo, Seve, Jose Maria Olazabal, Ian Woosnam and Ernie Els have all won here. The cream really tends to rise to the top and concentrating hard on the market leaders usually makes sense.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard tied 15th - trailing by four 48.047/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg tied ninth - trailing by four 100.099/1
2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick led by two 1.738/11
2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick tied third trailing by four 9.08/1
2016 - Alex Noren solo second trailing by a stroke 2.6813/8
2015 - Danny Willett tied for the lead 2.285/4

In-Play Tactics

Hojgaard was matched at 150.0149/1 in-running last year and Soderberg hit 1000.0999/1 and he was still trading at a triple-figure price with a round to go three years ago. Both men trailed by four strokes with a round to go but most winners are bang up with the pace from halfway here.

Fitzpatrick sat tied for 15th and just three off the lead after day one when he won here for the first time in 2017 but like Soderberg and Hojgaard, he was five adrift at halfway and that's unusually far back for winners here.
He was trailing by five after round one in 2018 and the man he beat in the playoff, Lucas Bjerregaard, was four off the lead but they both made up ground on Friday and they sat tied for second at halfway.

Noren hit a high of 40.039/1 after a slow start in 2016 had seen him sit tied for 40th and five off the lead, after he'd opened up with a one-under-par 69, and other recent winners, David Lipsky, Richie Ramsay and Thomas Bjorn have also trailed by at least five strokes after round one so a slow start can be overcome but you usually need to get a shift on in round two...

A second round 63 saw Noren shoot up into a tie for fourth, just one off the lead, and Hojgaard, Soderberg, Fitzpatrick in 2017, and Ramsay, who trailed by four in 2012, are the only winners since 1997 to be any further than three off the lead at halfway.

You generally need a fast start and in the 22 editions since 1999, nine halfway leaders have gone on to win and two have been beaten in playoffs. A strike rate of 41% for 36-hole leaders is pretty impressive.

Bjorn and Ramsay both won easily by four strokes but we usually get a tight finish here and six of the last eight renewals have gone to extra time - offering up a great chance to trade late on.

If you are going to get involved in-running, bear in mind that the two par fives on the back-nine, 14 and 15, are reachable in two and they offer up a great chance to score, but the par three 16th is tough and any gains at 14 and/or 15 can soon be given back.

Market Leaders

As an indication of just how open an affair this is, nobody's trading at less than 20/1 and only two players are trading at less than 33/1 - Ryan Fox and Adrian Meronk.

Fox has regressive form here reading 9-30-MC and while he's had a tremendous summer, his current form hasn't been anything to write home about either.

Since finishing in the BMW international Open and second in the Irish Open, he's finished 47th in the Scottish Open, missed the cut in the Open and finished 22nd in the Hero Open. I'm happy to swerve him and I feel the same about Meronk.

The first Pole to win on the DP World Tour, Meronk wasn't winning out of turn when he edged out Fox in the Irish Open but we haven't seen him since he missed the cut in the Scottish and finished 42nd in the Open and he didn't strike me as one to follow here after his 27th on debut 12 months ago.

The defending champ, Rasmus Hojgaard, is next up but his 10th in the Scottish Open in his penultimate start is his best effort since March and he's easy to dismiss at the prices too.

Selections

I'll have a couple of outsiders for the Find Me a 100 Winner column tomorrow but for now I'm going with just two - the 2015 winner, Danny Willett, and the in-form Italian, Renato Paratore.

Willett's current form isn't great. Since finishing a decent seventh in the 3M Open in July he's finished down the field in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and missed the cut in the Wyndham Championship but that doesn't unduly bother me.

Since winning the US Masters in 2016, Willett's general form hasn't been great but in three of the last four years he's returned to the DP World Tour after a disappointing PGA Tour season and picked up a prize in either September, October, or November. Can he add another in August?

In 2108 he won the prestigious DP World Tour Championship, he won the Tour's flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship, in 2019, and then last year he popped up in Scotland to claim the Alfred Dunhill Championship with current form figures reading MC-MC-71-MC.

Paratore is a very obvious pick at a juicy 75.074/1 given he was in front here 12 months ago before finishing seventh (also seventh in 2016) and his current form figures read 3-4-13.

Selections:
Danny Willett @ 48.047/1
Renato Paratore @ 75.074/1

I'll be back in the morning with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter