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Short game magic needed at Muirfield
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Previous course form a big plus
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Good event for outsiders and first-time winners
Tournament History
First staged in 1976, the Memorial Tournament is an invitational event with only the top-75 on the previous PGA Tour season's money list guaranteed a place in the line-up.
The brainchild of 18-time major winner, Jack Nicklaus, the Memorial Tournament always attracts a stellar field of 120 players, and this will be the 48th edition.
Venue
Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin Ohio.
Course Details
Par 72, 7,533 yards
Stroke Index in 2022 - 73.06
Named after his favourite Open Championship venue and set in 240 rolling, wooded acres, Jack Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village himself and he very often tinkers with it.
He did so in 2020, before the course hosted back-to-back PGA Tour events, with the Workday Charity Open preceding this event, and again before the 2021 edition, when he claimed it would be the last time that he'd make any significant changes to the layout.
Muirfield was built in 1974 on land acquired eight years earlier and it's a strong but fair test. The fairways are fairly generous but the rough, consisting of a blend of Kentucky bluegrass, fescue and rye, is usually pretty penal and it always strikes me how lush the whole place looks.
In addition to the Memorial Tournament, Muirfield also hosted the 1987 Ryder Cup, the 1998 Solheim Cup, the Presidents Cup in 2013 and as already mentioned, the once-only staged, Workday Charity Open in 2020.
Water comes into play on 11 holes and the smaller than average bentgrass greens are undulating and used to be set at around 13 on the Stimpmeter but since being replaced, they've ran a fraction slower over the last two editions,.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 17:00 UK time.
Last Eight Winners with Exchange Prices
- 2022 - Billy Horschel -13 90.089/1
- 2021 - Patrick Cantlay -13 (playoff) 25.024/1
- 2020 - Jon Rahm -9 25.024/1
- 2019 - Patrick Cantlay -19 19.018/1
- 2018 - Bryson DeChambeau -15 (playoff) 48.047/1
- 2017 - Jason Dufner -13 90.089/1
- 2016 - William McGirt -15 (playoff) 360.0359/1
- 2015 - David Lingmerth -15 (playoff) 640.0639/1
What Will it Take to Win the Memorial?
Patrick Cantlay has ranked fourth and eighth for Driving Distance when winning here but length off the tee isn't as advantageous as it once was around Muirfield.
Last year's winner, Billy Horschel, only ranked 59th for DD, the four men behind Cantlay in 2021 ranked 44th, 15th, 33rd and 35th, and the highest any of the top-seven ranked for DD in this event in 2020 was 21st but three of the top-five ranked inside the top-five for Driving Accuracy.
Horschel ranked seventh for DA last year and I'd favour accuracy over distance off the tee nowadays but the best stat to look at is Strokes Gained Tee to Green. The last six Memorial winners have ranked first, first, first, second, 12th and first for STGT2G.
The last four course winners, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Cantlay and Horschel have ranked sixth, third, first and first for Greens In Regulation and the 2012 and 2013 winners, Tiger Woods and Matt Kuchar, also both ranked first for GIR, as did the 2017 winner, Jason Dufner.
Byeong Hun An also ranked first for GIR when beaten in extra time five years ago and Cantlay ranked 11th when he won the event for the first time in 2019 but Adam Scott, who finished second, ranked second for GIR. The 2016 winner, William McGirt, ranked seventh for GIR and the two players that ranked first and second for GIR eight years ago, Francesco Molinari and Jim Furyk, both finished inside the top-five. The average GIR ranking of the last 14 course winners is just 8.8.
Morikawa only ranked 31st for Scrambling when winning the Workday in 2020 but that's been a key stat. Justin Thomas, who was beaten by Morikawa in extra time, ranked second, Horschel topped the Scrambling stats 12 months ago, the top-five in this event in 2021 ranked sixth, second, 19th, third and first for Scrambling and the first three home in this event in 2020 ranked one, two and three for Scrambling.
After his 2020 success, Rahm highlighted just how good his short game had been.
"One of the best performances of my life, yesterday (Saturday) was probably one of the best rounds of my life and I finished today with some clutch up-and-downs. And as a Spaniard, I'm kind of glad it happened that way. Every shot counts, and I tried every shot and got those two last up-and-downs, as a true Spaniard would.
"My short game has been unbelievable all week. It's been so good, and I've gotten close to chipping in a couple times. You always hear about people saying champions make it happen, and at that point I made it happen."
In 2019, the first second and third ranked fifth, sixth and seventh for Scrambling and the two best scramblers, Jordan Spieth and Marc Leishman, finished seventh and fifth. And Bryson DeChambeau topped the Scrambling stats when he won here five years ago.
The two course winners in 2020 only ranked 11th and fourth for Par 4 Scoring but Horschel ranked third last year and 11 of the 16 Memorial winners before him ranked first or second for Par 4 Scoring. That wouldn't be unusual on a par 70 track, with only two par fives, but given Muirfield is a par 72 with four, it's a stat to consider closely this week.
Although four of the last nine Memorial winners have had a Putting Average ranking of seventh or better, this is one of those rare venues where putting isn't the most important stat to consider and players that aren't renowned for their flat-stick prowess have won or contended. Horschel only ranked 43rd last year, Cantlay ranked 20th in 2021 and the first three home in this event in 2020 had Putting Average rankings of 17th, 32nd and 43rd. DeChambeau only ranked 27th when he won here five years ago and McGirt managed to win with a ranking of 55th!
Is There an Angle In?
Horschel had three top-11 finishes at Muirfield before he won here 12 months ago and in 2021, three former course winners - Rahm, Cantlay and Morikawa - all contended strongly so course form is well worth considering and so too is old form at Firestone and Florida Swing form...
It's old form now as there hasn't been a PGA Tour event there since 2019 but a look back at the old leaderboards at Firestone Country Club should provide a few clues.
Tiger Woods thrived at both venues, Hideki Matsuyama has won at both tracks, Justin Rose has won here and finished runner-up at Firestone, the 2019 runner-up here, Adam Scott, has won at Firestone, and Kyle Stanley and Zach Johnson have both finished second at both venues. Justin Thomas is another Firestone winner to come close to winning here and several other players have played very well at both venues.
Firestone is also in Ohio but the form crosses over so well that it can't just be geographical - both venues clearly correlate nicely and one last angle in could be to look at form in Florida at the start of the year.
Will Florida Swing form come to the fore again?
Horschel had finished second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March before he won here, and he was far from the first Memorial Tournament winner to have played well on the Florida Swing a couple of months previous.
Bart Bryant (2005), Carl Pettersson (2006), David Lingmerth (2015), William McGirt (2016) and Jason Dufner (2017), who all went off at huge prices, had all shown up earlier in the year with some decent form before they won here.
All five had bits and pieces of form on the Florida Swing at events like the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Honda Classic and the even the Players Championship.
Most players weave in and out of form and it's not unusual to see someone win a couple of months after being in form so that's something else to consider.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Although three of the last four winners have been well-fancied, this has been a good event for outsiders and first-time winners over the years.
Horschel was matched at 110.0109/1 before the off last year, Bryant in 2005 and Pettersson in 2006 were very big outsiders and the five winners before Cantlay broke his duck here in 2019 ranged from fairly tough to find to almost impossible...
Bryson DeChambeau's pre-event odds ranged between 95.094/1 and 46.045/1, Dufner was matched at 100.099/1 before the off but like the 2014 winner, Hideki Matsuyama, he went off at between 70.069/1 and 80.079/1, but the two in between that pair were huge outsiders, matched at more than 700.0699/1 before the get-go.
Tom Watson, Hale Irwin, Greg Norman, Jack Nicklaus and Patrick Cantlay have all won the tournament twice, Kenny Perry has won it three times and Tiger has claimed the title five times. Justin Rose came within a whisker of winning it a second time seven years ago so past winners do well here.
Winner's 54-hole Position and Exchange Price
- 2022 - Billy Horschel - led by five 1.558/15
- 2021 - Patrick Cantlay - tied for the lead 2.588/5
- 2020 - Jon Rahm led by four 1.341/3
- 2019 - Patrick Cantlay trailing by four 7.613/2
- 2018 - Bryson DeChambeau led by one 3.55/2
- 2017 - Jason Dufner trailing by four 11.521/2
- 2016 - William McGirt one of three tied for the lead 12.523/2
- 2015 - David Lingmerth trailing by three 20.019/1
In-Play Tactics
Last year's finish can hardly be described as dramatic given Horschel won by four strokes having led by five with a round to go but it's very unusual not to see at least one player trade at long odds-on and get beat and this has been a great place to trade over the years.
Jon Rahm was trading at 1.141/7 with a six-shot lead after three rounds in 2021 before having to withdraw following a positive Covid test and that's far from the first time that there's been carnage in the market at Muirfield.
The Memorial Tournament has been a fantastic tournament to trade over the years and so too was the 2020 Workday Charity Open. We've had six playoffs in the last ten events here now and taking on short-priced contenders is a great way to profit.
Matched at a low of 1.031/33, the 2020 Workday runner-up, Thomas, was matched at less than 1.11/10 on two separate occasions and Morikawa traded at a low of 1.51/2 in round four of this event two years ago.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler's worst result in 12 starts this year was 12th at the Genesis Invitational and he's finished fifth, second and third in his last three starts.
The world number one's long game is insanely good and since that 12th at Riviera in February, he's ranked first or second for Strokes Gained Tee to Green in seven of eight of his stroke play events. The only occasion he wasn't ranked first or second was at the Heritage where he still ranked fifth.
He's gained more than 15 strokes against the field in each of his last two starts and only once this year (at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he ranked 25th) has he ranked outside the top-12 for Greens In Regulation.
Those figures are truly remarkable, but his putting must be driving him crazy. The flatstick hasn't been behaving for a while now but he hit a new low at Colonial last week where he ranked 49th for Putting Average and 70th for Strokes Gained Putting.
Scheffler has improving course form figures reading MC-22-3 but while he's putting like he is, I can't entertain backing him at around 7/18.00 in a field this deep.
At a point bigger, Jon Rahm is a more tempting proposition.
There's been a bit of a drop off since he won the US Masters, but that's understandable and he's very likely to improve markedly from his 50th place finish in the US PGA Championship two weeks ago given how well he plays Muirfield.
Rahm won the 2020 edition comfortably and he was six clear through 54 holes when forced to withdraw having contracted Covid when defending.
He finished only 10th 12 months ago but he wasn't playing at his best at the time and he looks highly likely to improve on that this time around.
The two-time Memorial winner, Patrick Cantlay, has been in fair form all year and with course form figures reading 35-4-1-7-32-1-3, he's impossible to ignore but he never really convinces in-contention.
Cantlay was ninth at the US PGA Championship last time out and that was a fair performance given he sat tied for 73rd after round one.
Xander Schauffele looks short enough at 16/117.00 given he's never finished insdide the top-ten here in six visits and I'm happy to swerve Rory McIlroy too.
Rory hasn't been at his best this year and in 11 visits to Muirfield Village, fourth is his highest finish.
Trust Tyrrell at 33/134.00
Although only 33rd in 2019 on his only previous visit to Muirfield Village, Tyrrell Hatton looks like an interesting contender this week.
He finished fourth at the Arnold Palmer and second at the Players, so he ticks the Florida Swing form box, and he ranks highly for all the right stats.
He's also a winner at Wentworth, like last year's victor, Billy Horschel, and I thought he was fairly priced at 34.033/1.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter