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Super scrambling skills required in Illinois
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Expect low scores again at Deere Run
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Concentrate on the mid-price Americans
Tournament History
Originally called the Quad Cities Open, the John Deere Classic was first staged as a satellite tournament on the PGA Tour way back in 1971. It became an official event 12 months later and this year's renewal is the 52nd.
Initially played at the Crow Valley Country Club in Davenport, Iowa, the tournament moved to Oakwood Country Club in Illinois in 1975 and since 2000 its permanent home has been here at Deere Run.
For all but three editions this century, the John Deere Classic has been staged in the week before the Open Championship but as next week's DP World Tour event - the Scottish Open - is now co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, for the second year in-a-row, this year's edition is being staged two weeks before the year's final major.
Venue
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
Course Details
Par 71 - 7,289 yards
Stroke Index in 2022 - 69.88
Designed by D.A Weibring and sitting on old Native American settlements, TPC Deere Run is a very easy track indeed, where low scores are very much the norm.
J.T Poston won wire-to wire 12 months ago after opening the event with a nine-under-par 62 and Chad Campbell fired a 62 in the third round eight years ago but that wasn't even the best round of the day! Scott Brown shot 61 and that was the same score that Jordan Spieth shot in round three - seven years ago. Paul Goydos shot 59 here in 2010 and the surprise 2018 winner, Michael Kim, amassed an incredible 27-under-par total with rounds of 63, 64, 64 and 66.
Water is in play on five holes and the average-sized bentgrass greens are usually set to run at 12 on the Stimpmeter.
The two nines end with two of the hardest holes on the course (both par fours) but they're far from impossible and last year they both averaged 4.21. The ninth was the hardest hole in 2020 and 2021 and the 18th was the toughest on the track in the three years before that.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting on Thursday
Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
- 2022 - J.T Poston -25 50.049/1
- 2021 - Lucas Glover -19 70.069/1
- 2020 - Event Cancelled
- 2019 - Dylan Frittelli -21 90.089/1
- 2018 - Michael Kim -27 800.0799/1
- 2017 - Bryson DeChambeau -18 55.054/1
- 2016 - Ryan Moore -22 32.031/1
What Will it Take to Win the JDC?
The last ten winners here have had an average Driving Distance ranking of 29.6 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 24.6 so what you do off the tee is largely unimportant.
Lucas Glover only ranked 15th for Greens In Regulation in 2021 but Poston ranked fourth 12 months ago and the two winners before Glover ranked second and seventh.
No winner in the last decade has ranked any worse than 34th for GIR (Jordan Spieth) and the average GIR ranking for the last ten winners is 14.7, so approach play is clearly important, but this event is nearly always won on or around the greens.
Poston only ranked 27th for Putting Average last year, which is surprisingly high given he's an excellent putter, but Glover topped the PA stats in 2021 and although Frittelli only ranked 22nd in 2019, he ranked second for Strokes Gained Putting, and he made all 53 putts he faced inside seven feet. He missed just two of 62 inside ten feet and Russell Henley, in second place, ranked first for PA.
The 2018 winner, Kim, ranked first for both PA and Strokes Gained Putting, the first two home in 2017 ranked second and first for SGP and the average Putting Average ranking of the last ten winners is 12.4.
A hot putter is usually essential but so too is a deft touch around the greens most years. Jordan Spieth only ranked 18th and 32nd for Scrambling when winning his two titles here but Poston ranked third last year, Glover ranked fifth in 2021, and three of the last six winners have ranked first. The average Scrambling ranking for the last ten winners is 12.1.
Is There an Angle In?
Form at Colonial Country Club, home of the Charles Schwab Challenge, is well worth scrutinising and the Valspar Championship at Copperhead is an event to look at closely too..
Since this event moved to Deere Run, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, and Jordan Spieth have won both this event and the Charles Schwab and Tim Clark has come close to winning both, finishing runner-up in each event.
Sean O'Hair, who won this tournament in 2005, finished tied for second at the 2017 Charles Schwab Challenge, alongside Deere Run specialist, Jordan Spieth and the 2014 JDC winner, Brian Harman, finished tied for seventh alongside Stricker. The 2019 Charles Schwab winner, Kevin Na, finished second here in 2021 and this year's Charles Schwab winner, Emiliano Grillo, finished second here on debut 12 months ago.
Behind Grillo in sixth in May (beaten by three) was the surprise 2018 JDC winner, Michael Kim, and that was only his third top-six finish on the PGA Tour since he won here five years ago.
The 2016 John Deere Classic winner, Ryan Moore, should have won the Valspar at Copperhead eight years ago and as many as four men have won that tournament as well as this one - the aforementioned Spieth, John Senden, Sean O'Hair and Vijay Singh. And the link between the three tournaments was boosted back in March...
The first and second at the Valspar, who were separated after a playoff, were 75.074/1 chance, Tyler Moore, and 150.0149/1 shot, Adam Schenk (who was also beaten by Grillo in extra time at Colonial in May), and both have form at Deere Run.
Prior to his playoff defeats at Copperhead and Colonial, Schenk had only four top-six finishes on the PGA Tour and two of them were here at Deere Run. He finished sixth in 2019 and fourth in 2021 so he ties the three tracks together neatly and although Tyler Moore only finished 24th on debut here 12 months ago, he sat seventh at halfway after rounds of 67 and 66.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Although they all went off at a double-figure price, none of the last three winners were well-fancied and the 2018 winner, Michael Kim, must go down as one of the strangest ever winners on the PGA Tour.
Matched at 800.0799/1 before the off, Kim came into the event with form figures reading MC-MC-18-MC-MC-MC and although he's been resurrecting his career over the last 12 months, he's been largely disappointing since he won here.
Brian Harman was another triple-figure priced winner in 2016 but you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the previous winner to go off at more than a double-digit price. Dave Gossett was around the 125/1 mark.
Bryson DeChambeau was a 50/151.00 chance six years ago and Spieth was 40/141.00 when he won his first PGA Tour title here ten years ago.
The last two winners have been American and prior to Frittelli's victory four years ago, an American had won the previous 12 renewals. The South African was only the eighth overseas winners in the event's 51 year history.
This is a great place for up-and-coming players and five of the last nine winners have been getting off the mark on the PGA Tour for the first time here. In addition to the top-class Scott Hoch, who really should have won the 1989 US Masters, major champions, David Toms, Payne Stewart, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau all won their first PGA Tour titles at the John Deere Classic.
Winner's Position & Exchange Price Pre-Round 4
- 2022 - J.T Poston led by three 2.111/10
- 2021 - Lucas Glover T12th - trailing by four 50.049/1
- 2020 - Event Cancelled
- 2019 - Dylan Frittelli T5th - trailing by two 16.015/1
- 2018 - Michael Kim - led by five 1.422/5
- 2017 - Bryson DeChambeau 2nd - trailing by two 9.417/2
- 2016 - Ryan Moore - led by two 2.166/5
In-Play Tactics
Poston won wire-to-wire last year, but Glover caused a bit of a shock in 2021 when he won from tied 12th with a round to go.
We have to go all the way back to 1981 to find the previous player to win this title from outside the top-ten after 54 holes but that doesn't mean we haven't witnessed plenty of drama over the years.
Spieth was six back with 18 to play in 2013 but he birdied five of the last six to claim his first title and he confounded the stats two years later. He sat tied for 101st and eight adrift after round one but he led by two after round three following a 64 in round two and a 61 in round three, proving a slow start can be overcome.
Spieth's dramatic finish wasn't the first exciting finale and it certainly won't be the last. In fact, the 2017 finish was quite something...
Zach Johnson was the first to trade low when he hit 2.526/4 with a three-foot putt to take the lead on the par four 14th but he missed that, bogeyed the 15th and was eventually beaten by three. Daniel Berger then hit a low of 2.6213/8 and Patrick Rodgers was matched at just 1.21/5 before he lost his way on the par five 17th. DeChambeau's finish wasn't too dissimilar to Spieth's in 2013 as he birdied seven of the last ten holes.
Market Leaders
In what is a wide-open betting heat, only one player is trading at less than 20.019/1 and only three men are trading at less than 30.029/1. And none of them make much appeal...
Russell Henley, who has respectable Deere Run form figures reading 27-2-11, signed off the Travelers Championship with a seven-under-par 63 to finish tied for 19th and to record his fourth top-20 on the PGA Tour in-a-row but he hasn't threatened to win since taking the World Wide Technology title in Mexico in November.
Denny McCarthy was sixth here 12 months ago, having finished 34th on debut in 2018 but he missed two cuts in-between and he's still in search of his first victory on the PGA Tour.
Having been beaten in a playoff at the Memorial Tournament, McCarthy finished tied for 20th at the US Open and he was leading at halfway alongside the eventual winner, Keegan Bradley, last time out at the Travelers before a disappointing weekend performance saw him finish seventh.
McCarthy has course form and he's playing nicely but he makes no appeal at around 20/121.00 here. He was one of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks at the Travelers, where he was backed at 110.0109/1 and matched at a low of just 2.942/1, so it's very hard to imagine he's a fair price at so much shorter.
Cameron Young is another high-class performer that's yet to get off the mark on the PGA Tour despite some fabulous performances at the very highest level.
Young won the Evans Scholars Invitational on the Korn Ferry Tour in Illinois so a return to the Prairie State should give him some positive vibes on his Deere Run debut but with current form figures reading MC-MC-57-32-60, he's hard to fancy.
Selections
Weak events like this are always difficult to assess. As highlighted above, I can't bring myself to back McCarthy at 20/121.00 when I backed him at five times that price last time out.
Players' prices drop considerably because they've dropped in class but it doesn't equate in the same way as other sports and even the weakest PGA Tour events are packed with talent that can rise to the occasion on any given week, but I am happy to go in again with Taylor Moore at half the price I took last week in Detroit.
I researched this event before the Rocket Mortgage Classic began last week and if the truth be told, Taylor was a just in case bet last week as this was the one I was waiting for given I wrote this after he'd won the Valspar.
"This was Moore's first victory on the PGA Tour but he might be worth following if he tees it up at Deere Run in July, especially given he turns 30 three weeks later."
After three missed cuts in-a-row, last week's fourth in Detroit was a hugely encouraging performance and all things considered, the 40.039/1 on offer is more than fair.
Having dug a little deeper, I've decided to add Adam Hadwin to the portfolio at 36.035/1.
The Canadian played nicely last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he lost in a playoff to Rickie Fowler, and with very solid form at the two tracks that correlate best with Deere Run - Copperhead and Colonial - and with course form figures reading 18-8-MC, on reflection, the 36.035/1 available is more than fair.
It's probably not a surprise that he's finding some form after seeing his good friend Nick Taylor win the Canadian Open.
The two finished runner-up at the Zurich Classic together in April and given the strength of the field this week, if he can hold his form, Hadwin will be picking up an individual title too.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter