What happened last week? Redemption for Fitzpatrick at the Valspar
Just a week after trading at as short as 1.3130/100 to win the Players Championship, pre-event 16.015/1 chance, Matt Fitzpatrick, has gained redemption with victory at the Valspar Championship.
Pre-event 170.0169/1 chance, Sungjae Im, was matched at as short as 1.758/11 during the third round but having led through rounds one, two, and three, and having led by two with a round to go, he played his first ten holes on Sunday in five-over-par to relinquish the lead tamely.
The runner-up, David Lipsky, was matched at just 2.26/5 in-running but playing in the group behind Fitzpatrick, he was unable to match the Englishman's birdie three at the 72nd hole so lost out by a stroke.
Over on the DP World Tour, pre-event 200.0199/1 chance, Jordan Gumberg, won the Hainan Classic wire-to-wire.
Having held a clear lead through the first two rounds, the 30-year-old Floridian was joined at the top of the leaderboard by Jorge Campillo with 18 to play and the Spaniard was matched in-running at as short as 1.558/15 but after back-to-back bogeys around the turn in round four, Campillo was unable to get to the American, eventually losing by a stroke after both men had parred the last six holes.
Houston Open Tournament History
George Bowden and Peter O'Hara tied a tournament called the Houston Professional Golf event way back in 1922 and there was a tournament of sorts sporadically held annually in the Houston area up until 1938.
Nothing happened during the war years but 1946 saw the first official staging of the Houston Open, and the tournament started with a bang, with Byron Nelson getting the better of Ben Hogan by two strokes.
There was no event in 1948 or 1969 and after a rejig to the PGA Schedule, the Houston Open dropped of the schedule in 2023, but it's been an ever-present on the PGA Tour otherwise.
Having been played in the autumn for four years, the Houston Open returned to it's traditional spring slot three years ago.
Venue
Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas
Course Details
Par 70, 7475
Stroke Average in 2025 - 68.86
Originally designed by John Bredemus, Memorial Park, a municipal parkland course, was completely reworked in 2019 by Tom Doak, who was assisted by Brooks Koepka.
On Koepka's advice, bunkers were reduced from 54 to 20 and many were replaced by steep slopes covered in short grass. Runoff or collection areas if you prefer. The idea behind the move was to allow handicap golfers to putt up on to the green, rather than play from the sand, and to test the pros a bit more. The majority of recreational golfers struggle playing out of bunkers but none of the pros do so it was a clever and logical move.
The large overseeded MiniVerde Bermuda greens have ran at 12 on the stimpmeter over the last couple of years and the rough was trimmed to just a 1 and ¼ inches, half the height they'd been in 2022.
This is the sixth time in-a-row that Memorial Park has hosted the event.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 on Thursday.
Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2025 - Min Woo Lee -20 40.039/1
2024 - Stephan Jaeger -12 70.069/1
2023 - No Tournament
2022 - Tony Finau -16 18.017/1
2021 - Jason Kokrak -10 55.054/1
2020 - Carlos Ortiz -13 200.0199/1
2019 - Lanto Griffin -14 65.064/1
2018 - Ian Poulter -19 150.0149/1
2017 - Russell Henley -20 60.059/1
2016 - Jim Herman -15 800.0799/1
What Will it Take to Win the Houston Open?
Distance off the tee had been more important than accuracy in four of the five editions here but Tony Finau ranked first for Driving Accuracy when he won in 2022.
The last two winners, Min Woo Lee and Stephan Jaeger, only ranked 27th and 24th for Greens In Regulation but the first three course winners all ranked highly for GIR. Carlos Ortiz ranked eighth in 2020, Jason Kokrak ranked third a year later and Finau topped the GIR Stats three years ago.
Holing putts is almost always the key to victory and that's certainly been the case here. Ortiz ranked fifth for Strokes Gained: Putting, Kokrak ranked third, Finau second, Jaeger third and Lee second.
Riviera form stands up well at Memorial Park
Lee was playing here for the first time but Scheffler has four top-ten finishes from five visits, with three second place finishes. The 2022 winner, Tony Finau, finished tied for second two years ago and the 2024 winner, Jaeger, who's far from prolific, has course form figures reading 35-9-1-11, so previous at the track is a big plus, and so too is form at Riviera...
The 2024 winner, Jaeger, has only ordinary form at Riviera reading MC-7-40 but form there looks worth considering.
Lee missed the cut at Riviera on debut in 2022 and he only finished 12th there in February on his second start but his chance was derailed with a sloppy 74 on Saturday.
Sam Burns led this event through rounds two and three before he imploded on Sunday in 2020 and he was five strokes clear at halfway in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in 2021.
Dustin Johnson, who tied second here in 2020, was a standing dish around Riviera before he switched to the Liv Golf circuit (won there twice), and the man that finished alongside him here, Hideki Matsuyama, won at Riviera last year.
The 2021 winner here, Jason Kokrak, traded at a low of 1.645/8 before he finished second at Riviera in 2016 and the 2022 champ, Finau, has twice finished second at Riviera.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Although Finau was well-fancied in 2022 (backed down from 26.025/1 to 18.017/1), this has been a reasonable tournament for outsiders over the years.
Last year's winner, Lee, who went off at 40/141.00, is the only other winner in the last 12 years to be priced at less than 55.054/1 on the Betfair Exchange before the off and Carlos Ortiz, D.A Points, Matt Jones, Ian Poulter and Jim Herman have all taken the title recently at a big price.
Course Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2025 - Min Woo Lee - led by four 1.584/7
2024 - Stephan Jaeger - tied for the lead with four others 9.08/1
2023 - No Event
2022 - Tony Finau - led by four strokes 1.162/13
2021 - Jason Kokrak - tied seventh, trailing by two 14.013/1
2020 - Carlos Ortiz - tied second, trailing by one 7.413/2
In-Play Tactics
Min Woo Lee trailed by a stroke after rounds one and two before moving four clear in round three and Finau won wire-to wire in 2022, but Memorial Park is somewhere where winning form off the pace is perfectly possible.
Jaeger was tied for the lead with 18 to play in 2024 but he trailed by five after round one and he was still four adrift at halfway.
Ortiz sat second after rounds one, two and three in 2020 but DJ trailed by seven after round one and by five after 36 holes, and four of the eventual top ten trailed by at least seven strokes at halfway. Brooks Koepka, who finished tied fifth, and Mackenzie Hughes, who finished tied ninth, both trailed the halfway leader, Burns, by nine strokes!
The 2021 winner, Kokrak, failed to finish his second round on Friday thanks to a weather delay on Thursday morning. He returned to the course early on Saturday trailing by two with still seven holes of round two to play and he was at the head of the market at 5.95/1 but he must have got out of the wrong side of the bed as he played the seven holes in seven-over-par!
Kokrak drifted right out to 400.0399/1 after that but he bounced back brilliantly, shooting the second best third round of the day to claw his way back to within two of the lead through 54 holes.
All five course winners have been on the premises with a round to go but Kokrak's shown us that you can come from off the pace to win here.
The opening hole is a long and tough par four (hardest on the course last year) but the back nine is around half a stroke harder than the front nine.
The par five 16th averaged 4.65 last year and is a chance to score but 14, 15, 17 and 18 are all tougher holes. The 17th played to its par exactly and the other three averaged fractionally over par last year.
Scheffler the sole selection
EDIT: Since Steve's preview went live Scottie Scheffler has withdrawn from the Houston Open. Check back on Saturday morning for Steve's in-play verdict and potential bets.
Scottie Scheffler has drifted out from a low of 3.8514/5 to 6.411/2 to win his third US Masters in two weeks' time and that's all down to his poor recent form.
When he kicked off the year with an impressive four-stroke victory in the American Express, the world number one had won 14 of his last 35 starts and with a 40% strike rate, he looked a fair price at around 7/24.50 to win his third Green Jacket but after uncharacteristically slow starts in the Phoenix Open, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational, and a couple of poor putting weeks at the Arnold Palmer and the Players Championship, he's now drawn a blank in each of his last five starts.
Regressive form figures reading 3-4-12-24-22 were unimaginable two months ago but with the year's first major now looming large, this looks like a great opportunity to get back on track.
Back Scottie Scheffler
Playing in what's a fairly weak field event in his home state, and with course form figures reading 32-2-9-2-2, I'm happy to play him at 4.94/1.
Scheffler has traded at odds-on to win this event as early as round two in each of the last two years, so the course clearly suits his eye and he's nicely priced to finally win a tournament that he's finished second in three times.