- Riviera form correlates well at Memorial Park
- Scheffler a worthy favourite
- Joel Dahmen fancied to contend again
Tournament History
George Bowden and Peter O'Hara tied a tournament called the Houston Professional Golf event way back in 1922 and there was a tournament of sorts sporadically held annually in the Houston area up until 1938.
Nothing happened during the war years but 1946 saw the first official staging of the Houston Open, and the tournament started with a bang, with Byron Nelson getting the better of Ben Hogan by two strokes.
There was no event in 1948 or 1969 but it's been an ever-present on the PGA Tour otherwise. Having been played in the week before the US Masters every year since 2007, with the exception of 2013, it was shuffled back in the schedule in 2019.
Venue
Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas
Course Details
Par 70, 7412
Stroke Average in 2021 70.8
Originally designed by John Bredemus, Memorial Park, a municipal parkland course, was completely reworked in 2019 by Tom Doak, who was assisted by Brooks Koepka.
On Koepka's advice, bunkers were reduced from 54 to 20 and many were replaced by steep slopes covered in short grass. Runoff or collection areas if you prefer. The idea behind the move was to allow handicap golfers to putt up on to the green, rather than play from sand, and to test the pros a bit more. The majority of recreational golfers struggle playing out of bunkers but none of the pros do so it was a clever and logical move.
The course is entirely Bermuda and the large MiniVerde Bermuda greens, which will be set at least 12 on the stimpmeter, have plenty of undulation, suggesting finding the correct sections from the fairway will be key.
This is the third year in-a-row that Memorial Park has hosted the event.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting on the Red Button at 12:30 on Thursday. Full coverage begins at 18:00
Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2021 - Jason Kokrak -10 55.054/1
2020 - Carlos Ortiz -13 200.0199/1
2019 - Lanto Griffin -14 65.064/1
2018 - Ian Poulter -19 150.0149/1
2017 - Russell Henley -20 60.059/1
2016 - Jim Herman -15 800.0799/1
2015 - J.B Holmes -16 38.037/1
What Will it Take to Win the Houston Open?
With only two renewals to look back on, how much credence we can give the stats is debatable.
Distance off the tee has been marginally more important than accuracy and both winners have ranked highly for Greens In Regulation - Carlos Ortiz ranked eighth and Jason Kokrak third.
Holing putts is almost always the key to victory so it's no surprise to see that Ortiz ranked fifth for Strokes Gained Putting and Kokrak third and as a demonstration of how the stats for just two editions could be a bit misleading, Ortiz topped the Scrambling stats when he won two years ago but the runner-up, Dustin Johnson, only ranked 62nd and so did last year's winner, Kokrak.
Is There an Angle In?
It's very hard to draw too many conclusions from just two renewals but it looks like we have a strong course correlation emerging and form at Riviera looks well worth considering.
Sam Burns led this event through rounds two and three before he imploded on Sunday in 2020 and he was five strokes clear at halfway in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera last year.
Dustin Johnson, who tied second in 2020, is a standing dish around Riviera (won there twice), and the man that finished alongside him here, Hideki Matsuyama, has four top-11 finishes from just eight starts.
Last year's winner here, Kokrak, traded at a low of 1.645/8 before he finished second at Riviera in 2016 and the link is boosted by the fact that the last three US Masters winners have all finished second here
Matsuyama and Johnson were alongside each-other here in a tie for second in 2020 and this year's Masters winner, Scottie Scheffler, finished runner-up here last year after trading at a low of 1.564/7.
As many as 12 Masters Champions have won 24 editions of the Genesis Open at Riviera so both Riviera and Augusta form should stand up here nicely.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
This has been a decent tournament for outsiders over the years and Ortiz was a 200.0199/1 chance two years ago.
In the last nine years alone, we've seen longshots, Ortiz, D.A Points, Matt Jones, Ian Poulter and Jim Herman all take the title but in addition to changing venues, the tournament has also been moved in the schedule so it's hard to know what to expect going forward.
With the likes of DJ, Matsuyama, Koepka, Tyrrell Hatton and Jason Day all inside the top-seven and ties here in 2020 and with Shane Lowry just a stroke outside the places, the cream really did rise to the top in 2020 and this year's US Masters champ, Scheffler, really should have taken the title 12 months ago.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2021 - Jason Kokrak - tied seventh, trailing by two 14.013/1
2020 - Carlos Ortiz - tied second, trailing by one 7.413/2
2019 - Lanto Griffin - led by one stroke 4.03/1
2018 - Ian Poulter - tied for the lead 4.77/2
2017 - Russell Henley - third and trailing by four 6.611/2
2016 - Jim Herman - tied for the lead 11.521/2
2015 - J.B Holmes tied 18th - trailing by six 160.0159/1
In-Play Tactics
Memorial Park is somewhere where winning form off the pace is perfectly possible.
Ortiz sat second after rounds one, two and three in 2020 but DJ trailed by seven after round one and by five after 36 holes, and four of the eventual top-ten trailed by at least seven strokes at halfway. Koepka, who finished tied fifth, and Mackenzie Hughes, who finished tied ninth, both trailed the halfway leader, Burns, by nine strokes!
Last year's winner, Kokrak, failed to finish his second round on Friday thanks to the weather delay on Thursday morning. He returned to the course early on Saturday trailing by two with still seven holes of round two to play and he was at the head of the market at 5.95/1 but he must have got out of the wrong side of the bed as he played the seven holes in seven-over-par!
Kokrak drifted right out to 400.0399/1 after that but he bounced back brilliantly, shooting the second best third round of the day to claw his way back to within two of the lead through 54 holes.
Both winners have been on the premises with a round to go but Kokrak's shown us that you can come from off the pace to win here.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler kicked off last week's World Wide Technology Championship with a six-under-par 65 - his lowest opening round score to par on the PGA Tour in 2022 - and after putting an old putter back in the bag at the halfway stage, he signed the event off with a sensational nine-under-par 62 to finish tied for third.
He's finished first or second in four of his last eight tournaments in his home state and he's a far more experienced player now than the one that traded at odds-on 12 months ago when he was still in search of his first win.
He's now a major champion and a four-time PGA Tour winner and he's the man to beat.
Like Scheffler, the second favourite, Sam Burns, who has finished seventh here in each of the last two years, is also based in Texas and he too has a decent record here.
Burns edged out Scheffler at the Charles Schwab Challenge on the last occasions he played in Texas and he was also second at the Byron Nelson Championship here last year so he enjoys the home comforts too.
He's not been at his best since winning the Charles Schwab in May but he was seventh at the CJ Cup last time out after a pedestrian start and if can start like he did here in 2020 and finish like he did last year, he'll win with ease.
Burns led the 2020 edition after 36 and 54 holes but was seven adrift in a tie for 17th at halfway last year.
With current form figures reading 15-6-64-6-15, Aaron Wise is in fair form, and he won the Byron Nelson in Texas back in 2018, but that's still his only PGA Tour win and given he's only finished 11th and 26th here, I'm surprised to see him trading at a shorter price than world number 15, Tony Finau.
Tony missed the cut last week in Mexico and after finishing 24th in 2020, he didn't make the weekend last year, but I can see him contending this week.
Last week's outing was the first in a while and he'll be sharper this week. And the fact that he's twice finished second at Riviera is a plus too.
Selection
Scheffler is a very worthy favourite, and I may yet have a saver on him before the off.
I'll also have one more selection at least in the Find Me 100 Winner Column tomorrow but for now my sole selection Joel Dahmen, who finished tied for third in Mexico last week when a selection at 90.089/1.
Given he has a fifth placed finish at Riviera, that he was fifth here on debut last year and he putted nicely last week, I'm quite surprised to see him trading at as big as 65.064/1.
Selection:
Joel Dahmen @ 65.064/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter