The Punter's De-Brief: Wire-to-wire Niemann backed for Masters success

Chile's Joaquin Niemann opened-up the Genesis Invitational with an eight-under-par 63 to lead by three strokes and he was never headed after that.

The pre-event 65.064/1 chance was matched at a high of 100.099/1 for a few pounds when the market first opened, but he was tipped up in a few places and his price soon contracted so he was a very popular winner. And his followers had very few worries all week long.

The 23-year-old opened his second round with an eagle at the first and a birdie at the second and he went on to shoot a second consecutive 63 to lead by two at halfway.

PGA Tour rookie Cameron Young fired a nine-under-par 62 in round two to get within two of Niemann at halfway but with three strokes back to Justin Thomas alone in third, and a further two back to the remainder, Niemann dominated the event and the market throughout.

Young, generally a 400.0399/1 chance, was matched at a high of 600.0599/1 before the off, but he made a mockery of his odds, sticking to Niemann' coattails all weekend.

The 24-year-old sat second, three behind Niemann and three in front of Viktor Hovland alone in third after 54 holes and he was matched at a low of 2.915/8 when he got to within a stroke after seven holes on Sunday.

Nieman had failed to birdie the very easy par five opening hole so when he dropped a shot on the seventh, after six straight pars, Young was within one. But that was as close as Niemann came to losing and the excitement didn't last long.

Niemann birdied the eighth as Young bogeyed the hole, after he'd bladed his approach from the fairway, and the gap was back to three. And when the Chilean did this for an eagle on the par five 11th, the tournament was as good as over.

It looked good all the way. @JoacoNiemann chips in on No. 11 for his third eagle of the week.

He leads by SIX. pic.twitter.com/W1ncxPIisq

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 20, 2022

Back-to-back bogeys by the leader at 14 and 15, a chip-in birdie by Young at 15, and a late rally by Collin Morikawa made the finish slightly more intriguing but Niemann was certainly value for his two-stroke win.

The result was never really in doubt and arguably the most entertaining moment of the final round came when Morikawa casually walked in front of Thomas on the 10th tee.

my bad @JustinThomas34 https://t.co/JPXsGSW5cX

? Collin Morikawa (@collin_morikawa) February 21, 2022

It was a remarkable victory as nobody had won wire-to-to wire at Riviera since Hal Sutton won the US PGA Championship there in 1983. The last wire-to-wire winner of the Genesis was Charlie Sifford in 1969.

Given that prior to this week, 12 different US Masters winners had won 22 of the 58 renewals of the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, it's no surprise to see that the Chilean has shortened up from a high of 440.0439/1 to around 55.054/1 for the year's first major, which is now only 44 days away.

World number one and reigning US open champ, Jon Rahm is still at the head of the US Masters market. After his tied second yesterday, Morikawa has shortened up to second favourite, while the big drifter is the 2020 winner Dustin Johnson who hasn't won on the PGA Tour since he won at Augusta in November 2020.

DJ won the Saudi International for a second time last February but, given he could only finish tied for eighth there this time around and that he missed the cut last week, it's hardly surprising to see that he's now a big drifter in Masters market.

Prior to this year, DJ had form figures in Saudi reading 1-2-1 and he has a fabulous record at Riviera, twice finishing second before winning there in 2017.

At 37, Johnson should be in his prime still but he's slid from first to ninth in the Official World Rankings and he's drifted from a low of 14.527/2 to 22.021/1 to win the US Masters.

Once again, we only have PGA Tour action to look forward to this week and after last week's stellar field at Riviera, where the world's top-11 were in attendance, the line-up for the Honda Classic is slightly underwhelming.

The 2020 winner, Sungjae Im, heads the market, closely followed by a couple of players who have finished second previously - Daniel Berger and Brooks Koepka - and last week's victor, Niemann.

I'll be back tomorrow with my preview.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter