Tournament History
In existence since 1926, and originally known as the Los Angeles Open, the Genesis Invitational often attracts a fantastic field and this year's renewal is another cracker with the top-11 players on the Official World Rankings all in attendance.
Venue
Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, California.
Course Details
Par 71, 7322 yards
Stroke index in 2021 - 71.27
Riviera has several interesting quirks. There's a bunker in the middle of the par three 6th green, the 10th is a drivable par four, and the fairways are blanketed in kikuyu - a tough strain of grass imported from Africa over 80 years ago.
Polo was a popular sport in LA back then and kikuyu was used on the polo grounds in the area, so it wasn't long before it invaded and took over Riviera. The kikuyu makes for perfect lies on the narrow fairways, perching the ball up high on its stiff leaves, but it's a different story if you find the rough. The grass grabs and buries the ball and control out of the thick stuff is often minimal.
Many of the holes are doglegs and the fairways are tough to find with regularity, as are the Poa annua greens that will run at around 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.
Traditionally, these are often some of the hardest greens to find on the PGA Tour all season and the scoring average has been over-par in each of the last 12 years. Last year it averaged 71.27. It's a classic, traditional, and tough course.
The par four 10th measures only 315 yards but there's been only one eagle made there in three of the last four years (four in 2020) and last year it averaged 3.885 so although short, it's far from simple.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 14:30 on Thursday.
Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2021 - Max Homa -12 80.079/1 (playoff)
2020 - Adam Scott -11 40.039/1
2019 - J.B Holmes -14 250.0249/1
2018 - Bubba Watson -12 85.084/1
2017 - Dustin Johnson -17 9.617/2
2016 - Bubba Watson -15 29.028/1
What Will it Take to Win the Genesis Invitational?
Last year's winner, Max Homa, ranked second for Strokes Gained Off the Tee but that was mainly down to his accuracy given he ranked 59th for Driving Distance and third for Driving Accuracy whereas the 2017 winner, Dustin Johnson, ranked first for SG Off the Tee because he hit it further than anyone else.
DJ only ranked 45th for DA and the three winners in-between Johnson and Homa ranked 27th, 59th and 63rd for DA. And those three ranked only 21st 41st and 15th DD and 17th, 38th and 17th for SG Off the Tee so how you drive the ball isn't critical.
Statistically, this is a similar test to last week's WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale and the two stats to consider are Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained Tee to Green.
The last five winners have ranked 1-7-2-1-5 for GIR and 2-2-11-3-3 for SGT2G.
And on the greens, the last five winners have ranked 16-13-6-15-1 for Putting Average and 3-21-1-27-7 for Strokes Gained Putting.
Is There an Angle In?
This is a fabulous venue and a tough examination so it's no surprise to see that major winners have a fantastic record. Riviera has hosted the event 58 times now and a major winner has won on 34 occasions. The US Masters winners have by far the best record though and following Adam Scott's win here two years ago, and Dustin Johnson's success at Augusta in November 2020, 12 different US Masters winners have won 22 of the 58 renewals of the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.
Four-time Riviera winner, Macdonald Smith, was 44 when he played in the inaugural US Masters in 1934 (his only appearance) but he still finished seventh and although he never won the Masters, the only other man to win this title four times, Lloyd Mangrum, had an incredibly good record at Augusta.
Mangrum finished second there on debut in 1940 and he finished inside the top-ten for ten years in-a-row between 1947 and 1956. The fact that the tournament didn't even exist for the bulk of his career is the reason why Smith didn't win the Masters and the Second World War was a huge hinderance to Mangrum.
When he won here for the third time four years ago, Bubba Watson became the fifth to win it at least three times, joining Smith and Mangrum and Ben Hogan and Arnold Palmer, who both also won it thrice. Bubba, Ben, and Arnie are also multiple winners of the US Masters.
Phil Mickelson, Sam Snead, & Tom Watson have also won this event and the US Masters at least twice so Augusta really is a great guide.
Previous course form is a big plus. James Hahn won here on his third Riviera start seven years ago but he's the only winner in the last 16 years to have played here less than four times previously.
Although Riviera and the PGA National Golf Club in Florida - home of the Honda Classic - aren't in the least bit alike, form at the two venues correlates nicely but Quail Hollow is the most interesting correlating course.
Following wins for Homa last year, J.B Holmes three years ago and James Hahn in 2015, three of the last six Genesis winners have also won the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. And all three were matched at a triple-figure price before the off!
Homa was matched at a high of 120.0119/1, Holmes touched 400.0399/1 and Hahn was an unconsidered 600.0599/1 chance.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Major winners may have won on many occasions but there's no getting away from the fact that outsiders can and do prosper here regularly.
Prior to Homa last year, who was generally an 80.079/1 chance before the off, the 2019 winner, Holmes, was generally a 250.0249/1 chance, having been matched at a high of 400.0399/1 before the off, despite having very respectable course form figures reading 51-7-6-3-12-8-MC-52-22-11-24-60 and despite having won two of the previous four renewals, Bubba Watson was actually an 80.079/1 chance four years ago.
Scott Brown finished joint second five years ago, having been matched at 910.0909/1 before the off, and he was matched at 1000.0999/1 when finishing second again in 2020. Prior to Holmes' win, three of the previous eight winners were very difficult to spot, and it could very easily have been four from eight...
Hahn was an unconsidered 600.0599/1 shot seven years ago. John Merrick was matched at 800.0799/1 before the off when he beat 1000.0999/1 shot, Charlie Beljan, in a playoff in 2013, very few will have picked out triple-figure priced Aaron Baddeley in 2011 and Jason Kokrak, who was matched at 510.0509/1 before the off six years ago, led by two with four to play before losing out by a stroke to Bubba.
Given the event's recent history, I wouldn't put anyone off throwing a few pounds at a couple of outsiders and I'll be back later with three in the Find Me a 100 Winner column.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2021 - Max Homa T2nd - trailing by two 9.28/1
2020 - Adam Scott tied for lead with two others 4.94/1
2019 - J.B Holmes T2nd - trailing by four 17.016/1
2018 - Bubba Watson led by a stroke 4.03/1
2017 - Dustin Johnson led by a stroke 2.265/4
2016 - Bubba Watson led by a stroke 4.131/10
In-Play Tactics
This is tricky event to assess for in-running trading. The three winners before Scott were all up with the pace throughout but DJ in 2017 is the only 36-hole leader or co-leader to win since Phil Mickelson back in 2008. Scott trailed by eight in a tie for 65th after round one in 2020 and he's far from the first to win here after a sluggish start.
Bubba Watson was so far back at halfway in 2014 (tied 40th) that he needed back-to-back rounds of 64 to win by two. He was eight back at halfway and still four behind after three rounds!
Off the pace or hard on it, it's hard to gauge and recent results suggests the course conditions have a bearing but we can usually expect some final round shenanigans. Three players traded at odds-on before the playoff last year...
Sam Burns, who had led by five at halfway, was matched at a low of 1.4840/85, Tony Finau was matched at 1.351/3 when he led by one with one to play and the eventual winner, Homa, was matched at just 1.031/33 as he stood over a three-foot birdie putt to take the title on the 72nd hole, having birdied the 17th to tie Finau but he missed it and we were into extra time.
And after an iffy drive on the par four 10th by Homa in the playoff, Finau was matched at a low of 1.091/11 but both players made par there and Homa went on to win at the par three 14th with a par.
Rory McIlroy hit odds-on in round four in 2020 before fading to finish fifth and the 2019 runner-up, Justin Thomas, entered the final round with a four-stroke lead before he twice traded at very long odds-on.
Having been matched at a low of 1.182/11, his price drifted back out to odds-against before plummeting back down to 1.21/5 but long odds-on players were left licking their wounds when he double-bogeyed 13 and bogeyed 14 to allow Holmes to par his way in for victory.
There are always trading opportunities here and many an odds-on shot gets turned over.
We've witnessed all sorts of drama and in 2015 we saw three men trade at odds-on and lose. Sergio Garcia was matched at a low of 1.42/5, Dustin Johnson hit 1.384/11, and Paul Casey hit a low of 1.855/6 but it was James Hahn that eventually won in extra time.
Market Leaders
With current form figures reading 2-14-3-10 and course form figures reading 9-17-5, world number one, Jon Rahm, heads the market but I'm happy to swerve him.
By his own high standards, his tenth-place finish at TPC Scottsdale last week was a disappointing effort and he's yet to look anywhere near close to winning at Riviera in his first three starts here. He was fifth 12 months ago but that was from off te pace and others are preferred.
Patrick Cantlay has been in-contention in each of his first four starts in 2022 and he's twice traded at odds-on without winning. He'll be kicking himself after his playoff defeat to Scottie Scheffler on Sunday and he's another I'm happy to leave out.
Cantlay was fourth on debut at Riviera in 2018 but he's finished 15th, 17th and 15th in his three subsequent starts.
Course specialist, Dustin Johnson, commands the utmost respect but he was disappointing at another course that's perfect for him - Royal Greens - last time out when he could only finish eighth, having finished first, second and first there in his first three starts.
DJ hasn't won anywhere since winning at Royal Greens in early 2021 and although I'd have played him at 20.019/1 plus, at a few ticks shorter I'm reluctantly leaving him out.
Justin Thomas is the only other player trading at less than 20.019/1 but after throwing the event away three years ago he's missed the cut on each of two subsequent visits.
Selections
With the best 11 players in the world in attendance, this is ridiculously competitive and I didn't want to get too involved before the off but three of the world's top-ten look over-priced - the world number four, Viktor Hovland, the number five, Rory McIlroy, and the reigning US Masters champ and world number 10, Hideki Matsuyama.
I really was quite surprised to see Rory trading at in excess of 25.024/1 given he has form at all three correlating courses (won three times at Quail Hollow), he's played well here a couple of times, and the last time was saw him in action he traded at odds-on in the Dubai Desert Classic.
He's led after the opening round in two of his last six starts and as many as 30 times in total so he's a fair price at 28/1 in the first-round leader market too.
Hideki Matsuyama is looking to become the latest US Masters champion to win at Riviera and he arrives in fine form after his eighth-place finish on Sunday in the WM Phoenix Open.
Matsuyama has form figures here reading 23-4-11-MC-9-5-MC, he traded at odds-on at Quail Hollow in the 2017 US PGA Championship and he's won two of his last three starts.
Often let down with the flatstick, these tricky Poa annua greens are great leveller but he made 62 of 62 putts inside seven feet last week anyway and he's simply too big at 29.028/1.
And finally, although he missed the cut last week, for the second year in-a-row at TPC Scottsdale, Viktor Hovland has won three of his last six starts and he was fifth here on debut 12 months ago. He was also third in his only visit to Quail Hollow so I thought he was worth a small saver.
Just one previous visit isn't usually enough here so that's a negative and he's the weakest of the three.
Selections:
Rory McIlroy @ 26.025/1
Rory McIlroy - First Round Leader 28/1 (each-way with the Sportsbook)
Hideki Matsuyama 29.028/1
Viktor Hovland @ 30.029/1
I'll be back later today or tomorrow with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter