Steve Rawlings makes three long odds selections for the Wells Fargo Championship including a recent winner, a legend of the game and a wager at over 700/1...
I was very surprised to be able to back him at a bigger price than he was when winning the Honda - and he’s a fairly confident selection.
I've searched in vain for a selection at the Canary Islands Championship. I was tempted to put up last week's column pick, Alejandro Del Rey, but although the track looked ideal, he was very disappointing, and he never really looked like even making the cut.
That wouldn't have unduly put me off. As highlighted in the preview, the two playoff protagonists at the Kenya Savannah Classic in March had missed the cut the week before in the Kenya Open on the same course but I'd have wanted a bigger price. Del Rey was a selection to finish inside the top-20 at 6/1 last week and this week he's 4/1. That looks quite a strange market reaction to a missed cut.
South Africans have won four of the last five regular European Tour events - the two events in Kenya and the first two of the Canary Islands Swing - so I was tempted to back Justin Walters, the close friend of last week's winner, Dean Burmester, at a juicy 130.00129/1.
Walters ranked second for Putting Average so that's a plus but the rest of his game must be in disarray given he only finished tied for 48th. After some deliberation, I've decided to leave him alone and move on to the Wells Fargo Championship where Matt Jones is a confident pick.
Matt's the man at Quail Hollow
Recent Honda Classic winner Matt Jones came to mind immediately when I started looking at the Wells Fargo Championship for several reasons.
As highlighted in the preview, the two courses that correlate best with Quail Hollow appear to be the Golf Club of Huston, home of the Houston Open up until 2019, and Riviera, home of the Genesis Invitational.
Prior to his impressive five-stroke demolition of the field at the Honda, 41-year-old Jones' only previous win had been at the Houston Open in 2014, and he finished eighth at Riviera back in February.
He's not the most prolific, with only two PGA Tour wins to date, but he's undergone long periods of poor form which goes a long way to explain why his seventh in this event in 2010 is his best effort here to date.
Jones has been lightly raced this year and since his victory in Florida, we've seen him only once, finishing a respectable 26th in the US Masters in only his second appearance at Augusta following a missed cut in 2014.
It's always hard to gauge a player's wellbeing after a break but the course should suit and he was in fine fettle before his month off. I was very surprised to be able to back him at a bigger price than he was when winning the Honda (110.0109/1) and he's a fairly confident selection.
Look to Lefty to shine in Charlotte
Phil Mickelson has been showing a bit of form of late and, as he demonstrated last month at Augusta, when he finished 21st after a slow start to the US Masters, at a course that suits him, he's still capable of contending.
He missed the cut at the Valspar last week but he only missed out by a stroke after a two-under-par second round in which he bogeyed two of the last three ultra-tough holes.
Lefty has won both the aforementioned Houston Open and Genesis Invitational (three times) so it's no surprise to see that he loves Quail Hollow too.
Although yet to win here, he's come close to several times, even trading at odds-on, and he has as many as 12 top-12 finishes, including nine top-fives!
He's worth chancing modestly in the outright market and 6/1 to finish inside the top-20 looks more than fair.
Beau's too big after Sunday's charge
As highlighted in the preview, I've had a tiny bet on Bill Haas at 1000.00 and I wouldn't put anyone off chancing players at such a price given three of the last seven winners of this event have gone off at the maximum price but for my final pick, I've gone with someone fractionally shorter - Beau Hossler at 710.0709/1.
Hossler's done very little of late but he finished the Valspar Championship with a stunning bogey-free 66 on Sunday so he's clearly found something from somewhere and the closest he's ever come to winning on the PGA Tour was at the Houston Open in 2018 when he was an unlucky playoff loser to Ian Poulter.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
STEVE'S 2021 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L
Staked: 90.5 units Returned: 22.5 units P/L: -68 units