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Scrambling the key stat in Switzerland
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Course specialists common at Crans
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Great venue for Sunday trading
What happened last week? Fleetwood and Noren claim the spoils
Tommy Fleetwood has finally rewarded his loyal band of followers with an impressive three-stroke victory over Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley at the Tour Championship to claim the FedEx Cup.
The Englishman was seeking to win on the PGA Tour for the first time but having finished third at the FedEx St Jude Championship and fourth in the BMW Championship in the first two playoff events, Fleetwood was a well backed 14/115.00 chance. Other than the pre-event favourite, Scottie Scheffler, who was matched in-running at a low of 1.981/1, Fleetwood was the only man in the field to go odds-on.
Fleetwood dominated in Georgia on Sunday, but it was a very different story at the Belfry where pre-event 32.031/1 chance, Alex Noren, who was matched at 55.054/1 when he trailed by five at halfway, eventually got the better of Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard, in round four of the British Masters.
The veteran Swede, who won the event for the first time back in 2016, trailed the 54-hole leaderboard, Matt Fitzpatrick, by a stroke in solo second with 18 to play but he set the tone with back-to-back birdies at two and three on Sunday. Fitzpatrick, who was matched at a low of 2.021/1, was never at the races.
Fitzpatrick shot a disappointing two-over par 74 to finish tied for sixth and it was Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard who looked the most likely winner after he'd played his first 10 holes in four-under-par.
Hojgaard was matched at a low of 1.42/5 before Noren put the event to bed with three birdies in-a-row from the 15th and, after his bogey five at the tough finishing hole, he claimed the title by a stroke.
Tournament History
Founded as the Swiss Open in 1923, the Omega European Masters has been staged at the stunning Crans-sur-Sierre course since 1939 and it's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972.
Venue
Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland.
Course Details
Par 70, 6,823 yards
Stroke index in 2024 - 70.42
With the spectacular Crans Montana mountain range constantly in view, Crans-sur-Sierre is very easy on the eye.
The course dates right back to 1908 but it's been tweaked quite a bit of late. Significant changes came in 1999, when Seve Ballesteros oversaw a redesign, and prior to the 2013 renewal, changes were made to four holes (10, 12, 13 and 17) with the biggest coming at the par three 13th, which now has a couple of lakes in front of the green and a seating area behind it.
Further changes were made to holes one, two, four, five, nine and 14 in 2014. The fairways and fairway bunkers were remodelled on holes one, two and four. The tee was moved back by 25 yards on the par four fifth, making the hole no longer drivable, and the ninth was completely remodelled with changes to the fairway and bunkering, as well as a completely new green and green complex. The 14th hole, previously an easy par five, was reduced in length by just 38 yards and changed to a par four but it reverted back to a par five 10 years ago and it's been played as a par five ever since.
As part of a long-term project, the greens on the first, fourth and fifth holes were renovated in June 2023, to provide further pin placements, and plans are afoot for further work to be carried out in the coming years.
The opening hole used to be a very easy par five but that was changed to a par four 10 years ago. It was the hardest hole on the course again last year and the start here is fairly challenging with the next four holes ranking as the fourth, 13th, second and seventh hardest.
The fairways are sloped, mostly tree-lined, and of average width and the greens are small and shaped like upturned-saucers. Water is in-play on six holes - 10, 12, 13, 14, 17 and 18 - while holes six and seven are short drivable par fours. Hardly anyone takes on the very narrow sixth, but the vast majority will have a go at driving the 7th. It was the second easiest hole on the course last year, averaging 3.69, and there were 14 eagle twos there during the week.
Crans is at altitude, so it doesn't play anywhere near as long as it's already short yardage.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 on Thursday.
Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2024 - Matt Wallace -11 (playoff) 18.017/1
2023 - Ludvig Aberg -19 22.021/1
2022 - Thriston Lawrence -18 (playoff) 44.043/1
2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard -13 55.054/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg -14 (playoff0 540.0539/1
2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 (playoff) 13.012/1
2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -14 (playoff) 30.029/1
2016 - Alex Noren -17 (playoff) 19.018/1
2015 - Danny Willett -17 18.017/1
What Will it Take to Win the European Masters?
The Driving stats are always a little misleading here and probably not that useful. The course is short and at altitude so there's absolutely no need to go bombing it off the tee. The driver stays in the bag for most of the holes and neither the Driving Distance nor the Driving Accuracy stats are much use, as demonstrated perfectly by the 2022 winner, Thriston Lawrence, who ranked 59th for DD and 70th for DA!
Last year's winner, Matt Wallace, ranked 13th for DD and fourth for DA and Accuracy appears slightly more important than power.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked first for Driving Accuracy when he defended the title in 2018 and 16th when he won in 2017, and the 2021 winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, ranked second for D.A.
Wallace only ranked 34th for Greens In Regulation 12 months ago but three winners before him ranked third, 11th and third and the first and second in 2018, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Lucas Bjerregaard, ranked second and first for GIR, so that's a key stat.
Fitzpatrick only ranked 16th for GIR in 2017 but the man who lost in the playoff for a second year running, Scot Hend, ranked number one.
Looking back, eight of the last 18 winners have ranked either first or second for GIR but had Hend won the two playoffs in 2016 and 2017, and Hojgaard and Aberg ranked second instead of third, that would have read 12 from 18.
Year after year, finding these small greens with frequency is the key to victory but if you are going to miss the odd one, getting up-and down with regularity is vital.
Wallace ranked seventh for Scrambling last year but five of the last 11 winners have ranked first, second or third for Scrambling and that trend extends further back in time with 10 of the last 18 winners having ranked no worse than sixth for Scrambling.
Strokes gained figures have only been produced for the last five editions and nothing really stands out, although all five winners have ranked inside the top nine for SG: Tee-to-Green. Here are the last five winners with their rankings for each of the main SG categories.
2024 - Matt Wallace - Tee 9 App 54 ATG 2 T2G 4 P 3
2023 - Ludvig Aberg - Tee 2 App 2 ATG 31 T2G 1 P 41
2022 - Thriston Lawrence - Tee 58 App 1 ATG 22 T2G 2 P 19
2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard - Tee 2 App 5 ATG 66 T2G 8 P 12
2020 - No Event
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg - Tee 8 App 35 ATG 7 T2G 9 P 17
Stats Key
Tee = Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
App = Strokes Gained: On Approach
ATG = Strokes Gained: Around the Green
T2G = Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
P = Strokes Gained: Putting
Is There an Angle In?
Course form holds up exceptionally well at this quirky and beautiful venue.
Last year's winner, Wallace, was beaten by Thriston Lawrence in a playoff two years before he won and he's far from the first to perform well here repeatedly.
Matthew Fitzpatrick has figures here reading MC-2-7-1-1-69-3-27 and he really should have won the event for a third time in 2023 (hit a low of [1.08) but he's still one of 12 players to win at the venue at least twice.
The 2015 winner, Danny Willett, was playing Crans for a seventh time and he'd previously finished second and fifth. The 2013 winner, Thomas Bjorn, was winning the title for a second time in three years, the 2012 winner, Richie Ramsay, has twice finished inside the top ten here since, and the 2010 victor, Miguel Angel Jimenez, has nine other top tens to his name.
Rory McIlroy and Scott Hend haven't won the title but they've both been beaten in two playoffs so anyone that's fared well here previously needs to be considered but if recent history is anything to go by, plumping for a course debutant may well be a decent tactic too given the four winners before Wallace were all playing here for the first time.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
David Lipsky went off at 240.0239/1 when he won here 11 years ago and Sebastian Soderberg was very much a surprise winner six years ago, but the four winners before him were fairly well-fancied and the last four winners were easy enough to fancy in very open heats.
Crans-sur-Sierre has often produced a big-name winner, and the Omega European Masters has an impressive list of winners with many true greats having won here.
Thomas Bjorn, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood have all won here in the modern era and the 2015 champ, Danny Willett, joins an illustrious list of major champions to have taken this title. Sir Nick Faldo, Seve, Jose Maria Olazabal, Ian Woosnam and Ernie Els have all won here. The cream often rises to the top and concentrating hard on the market leaders usually makes sense.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2024 - Matt Wallace - led by four 1.422/5
2023 - Ludvig Aberg tied second - trailing by two 7.413/2
2022 - Thriston Lawrence led by three 1.9110/11
2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard tied 15th - trailing by four 48.047/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg tied ninth - trailing by four 100.099/1
2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick led by two 1.738/11
2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick tied third - trailing by four 9.08/1
2016 - Alex Noren solo second - trailing by a stroke 2.6813/8
2015 - Danny Willett tied for the lead 2.285/4
In-Play Tactics
We very often get a tight finish here and there's been a playoff in eight of the last 11 renewals.
Having led by four with 18 to play, Wallace traded at as short as 1.111/9 in regulation play before Spanish long shot, Alfredo Garcia-Heredia , who was 1000.0999/1 chance before the off, birdied the last to take the event into extra time and although Ludvig Aberg won easily in the end two years ago, Fitzpatrick was matched at just 1.081/12 in-running before the wheels fell off deep into the back nine and we've seen someone trade at odds-on and get beat in three of the last four renewals.
Wallace hit a low of 1.84/5 in 2022 and Bernd Wiesberger was matched at just 1.121/8 in 2021 so it's a place to take on odds-on shots in-running on a Sunday.
The 2021 winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, was matched at 150.0149/1 in-running and the 2019 champ, Sebastian Soderberg hit 1000.0999/1, and he was still trading at a triple-figure price with a round to go. Both men had trailed by four strokes with through 54 holes and Aberg was two adrift on Sunday morning in 2023, but most winners are bang up with the pace from halfway here.
Fitzpatrick sat tied for 15th and just three off the lead after day one when he won here for the first time in 2017 but like Soderberg and Hojgaard, he was five adrift at halfway and that's unusually far back for winners here.
He was trailing by five after round one in 2018 and the man he beat in the playoff, Lucas Bjerregaard, was four off the lead but they both made up ground on Friday and they sat tied for second at halfway. Aberg was three off the lead and tied fifth at halfway two years ago, but you generally need a rapid start here.
Wallace led by four after 36 holes 12 months ago and in the 24 editions since 1999, 10 halfway leaders have gone on to win and two have been beaten in playoffs. A strike rate of 42% for 36-hole leaders is pretty impressive.
If you are going to get involved in-running, bear in mind that the two par fives on the back-nine, 14 and 15, are reachable in two and they offer up a great chance to score, but the par three 16th is tough and any gains at 14 and/or 15 can soon be given back.
Course debutants chanced at Crans
As highlighted above, although course form holds up really well here, the four winners before Wallace were all playing at the venue for the first time so I'm more than happy to chance a pair of debutants.
The 2023 US Open winner, Wyndham Clark, looks very generously priced given how well he's been playing over the last month or so.
He finished down the field at the FedEx St Jude Championship, after a poor weekend last time out, but prior to that he'd finished 11th in the Scottish Open, fourth in the Open and 12th at the 3M Open and the world number 27 looks nicely priced at 28/129.00.
Back Wyndham Clark
Last year's impressive Indian Open winner, Keita Nakajima, caught the eye at the Belfry last week where he ranked 17th for Greens In Regulation, second for Scrambling and first for Driving Accuracy when finishing fourth behind Noren in the British Masters.
The 25-year-old Japanese finished second in back-to-back events at the end of March so he could well back up last week's performance here. He too looks nicely priced on his Crans debut at 50.049/1.
Regularly held back on the greens, Nakajima ranked a respectable 46th for Putting Average and sixth for Strokes Gained: Putting in England. If he can build on that he'll contend again.
Back Keita Nakajima