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Links exponents set to shine
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Frontrunners likely to prosper
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Read my Sony Open preview here
Tournament History
After a break of three weeks, the DP World Tour resumes with the inaugural edition of the Dubai Invitational, staged at the Dubai Creek Resort.
This brand-new event is to be staged biannually with a field consisting of 60 professional DP World Tour players, and 60 amateur golfers.
Starting on Thursday, the Dubai invitational is a traditional 72-hole strokeplay tournament that will be played concurrently with a three-day Pro-Am team event, with Sunday featuring the professionals only.
The inaugural staging has been well received and we have a strong line up with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Ryan Fox, Adrian Meronk and the Hojgaard twins all in attendance.
Venue
The Championship Course, Dubai Creek Resort, Dubai, UAE
Course Details
Par 71, 7009 yards
Known for its distinctive sail-shaped clubhouse, the Championship Course at the Dubai Creek Golf Club first opened as long ago as 1993.
The club staged two editions of next week's DP World Tour event - the Dubai Desert Classic - at the turn of the century with England's David Howell wining by four in 13-under-par in 1999, before Argentina's Jose Coceres won 12 months later by two in -14.
It also staged two editions of a tournament called the Dubai Creek Open on the Asian Tour back in 1996 and 1997.
The fairways are described as undulating and water is a constant feature, whether via manmade lakes or the Creek itself, which comes in to play on at least four holes.
There is a hole-by hole guide of the course on the venue's website here and the flyover below gives a feel for the track, which looks to have a tough finish.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all for days, starting at 7:30 UK time
What Will it Take to Win the Dubai Invitational?
There's very little wind in the forecast so I strongly suspect we're going to witness a bit of a birdie-fest.
It's quite likely to develop into a bit of a putting contest so think carefully about backing anyone that struggles on the dancefloors.
Is There an Angle In?
Desert form very often crosses over so look to form at the Dubai Desert Classic, the Abu Dhabi Championship, the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, the Qatar Masters, and the DP World Tour Championship. And links form is also well worth considering.
Events staged at desert tracks are played in very different conditions than experienced at your typical links event like the Scottish Open, the Open Championship or the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, but the courses are similar and form between the two course types translates well.
Links and desert courses are typically flat and wind exposed and many a fine links exponent enjoys desert golf.
In-Play Tactics
As highlighted above, desert tracks play similarly to links layouts, and frontrunners are very often favoured at both links and desert courses.
As the wind dries out the exposed courses, they become harder to score on and the early pacesetters often hold their advantages all the way to the finishing line.
In the four events staged here so far, all four winners were inside the top-six places after round one, three winners were leading at halfway and three were leading after round three.
All four winners have sat first or second at halfway and in the two editions of the Dubai Desert Classic, David Howell was never headed after sitting sixth and two back after round one and Jose Coceres won wire-to-wire.
With very little wind forecasted, we need to be concentrating on the leaders from very early on.
Market Leaders
World number two, Rory McIlroy, is the understandably short favourite.
He's a fine links exponent with a great record in this part of the world but I'm happy to swerve him at just 3/14.00.
He tends to play well in his first start of the year but last year's victory in the Dubai Desert Classic was the only occasion that he's got off to a winning start.
Since finishing 11th at the Abu Dhabi Championship in 2008, his first start of the year form figures read 5-3-2-2-MC-2-2-3-2-3-4-3-3-12-1.
That's an impressive set of numbers so we should probably expect him to contend again but we're guessing really given we haven't seen him since he finished only 22nd in the Dubai World Championship in November.
The second favourite, Tommy Fleetwood, won the Abu Dhabi Championship back-to-back in 2017 and 2018 on his annual debut but this isn't his first event of 2024.
The likable Englishman travels all the way home to Dubai from Hawaai after a disappointing performance saw him finish down the field in 47th in The Sentry, where he posted three rounds of 70 and a 69 on Saturday.
Given the Plantation Course averaged just 68.36 throughout the week, last week's effort was underwhelming, and Tommy makes little appeal at less than 10/111.00.
The third favourite, Nicolai Hojgaard, lines up for the first time since winning the DP World Tour Championship in November.
Having also won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship (in 2022), Nicolai clearly enjoys desert golf and his career is most definitely on the rise but his first starts of the year have so far yielded form figures reading MC-MC-10.
That's not much of a sample size but I suspect his victory at Jumeirah was celebrated appropriately over the festive period and at less than 14/115.00, he's another I'm happy to swerve.
Selection:
I'll be looking at the state of play closely after round one and I'll be concentrating hard on the early leaders, so I wasn't in a rush to side with anyone before the off but the prolific Dubai-based Pole, Adrian Meronk, has drifted to a backable price at 20/121.00 on the exchange.
Although yet to win in the region, Meronk has a decent bank of desert golf form, and he was beaten in a playoff at the Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge on the Challenge Tour back in 2017.
The 30-year-old won twice on the DP World Tour in 2022 and twice again last year so he's at the peak of his powers and he's a fair price to kick 2024 off in style.