-
Scrambling the key stat at the Belfry
-
Belfry winners profile changing
-
Read my Tour Championship preview here
What happened last week? Odds-on shots fail at both events.
Although he'd led by five at halfway and by four with 18 to play, with Scottie Scheffler breathing down his neck, Robert Macintyre traded no shorter than 1.574/7 to win the BMW Championship on the PGA Tour last week and the writing was on the wall when he began round four with back-to-back bogeys.
Macintyre wasn't at the races on Sunday, and he was trailing the world number one after just seven holes.
To his credit, Macintyre hung on to the pre-event 4.57/2 favourite's coattails on the back nine and he closed the gap to just one with a birdie at the par five 16th but Scheffler doubled his advantage in dramatic fashion at the penultimate hole and that was effectively that.
Over on the DP World Tour, the third-round leader, Rasmus Hojgaard, was matched at as low 1.182/11 when he led the Danish Golf Championship by four on the front nine on Sunday, but he dropped four strokes in four holes around the turn and the pre-event 20/121.00 chance, Marco Penge, pounced.
The Englishman looked in total control on the back nine but after a three-putt bogey on the 16th momentarily opened the door for Hojgaard but with Penge finishing with back-to-back birdies, the Danes eagle at the par five 18th was too little late.
Tournament History
The British Masters was first staged in 1946, when originally known as the Dunlop Masters.
There was no edition in 1984 and the event was lost from the schedule altogether after Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano won at this week's venue, the Belfry, in 2008 but with the help of Sky Sports, it made a successful and very welcome return to the schedule ten years ago when Ian Poulter hosted the event at Woburn.
Luke Donald, Lee Westwood (twice), Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, and Danny Willett (twice) have all hosted the event since then and Sir Nick Faldo hosts the event again this year for the third year in-a-row.
Venue
The Belfry, Wishaw, Warwickshire, England
Course Details
Par 72 - 7, 336 yards
Stroke Index in 2024 - 72.89
The Belfry hosted this event for three years in-a-row between 2006 and 2008 and it also hosted the last four editions of the now defunct Benson & Hedges International between 2000 and 2003, as well as four editions of the Ryder Cup.
After a break of 12 years, having last hosted this event in 2008, the Belfry made a welcome return to the DP World Tour in 2020 when it hosted the one-off UK Championship - won in extra-time by Rasmus Hojgaard- and it's been the venue for the last four editions of this event.
The Belfry is a relatively flat, mostly tree-lined course, with some narrow fairways. Water is in play on seven holes - most noticeably at the short drivable par four 10th.
The majority of the Poa Annua greens are fairly small and the bigger ones have tiers and undulations, placing a premium on long putting and scrambling.
Winners at the Belfry this Century
2000 B&H International - Jose Maria Olazabal -13
2001 B&H International - Henrik Stenson -13
2002 B&H International - Angel Cabrera -10
2003 B&H International - Paul Casey -11
2006 British Masters - Johan Edfors -11
2007 British Masters - Lee Westwood -15
2008 British Masters - Gonzalo Fernandez Castano -12 (playoff)
2020 UK Championship - Rasmus Hojgaard -14 (playoff)
2021 British Masters - Richard Bland -13 (playoff)
2022 British Masters - Thorbjorn Olesen -10
2023 British Masters - Daniel Hillier -10
2024 British Masters - Niklas Norgaard -16
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 on Thursday
Last Eight Event Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2024 - Niklas Norgaard -16 70.069/1
2023 - Daniel Hillier -10 180.0179/1
2022 - Thorbjorn Olesen -10 95.094/1
2021 - Richard Bland -13 220.0219/1
2020 - Renato Paratore -18 70.069/1
2019 - Marcus Kinhult -16 370.0369/1
2018 - Eddie Pepperell -9 42.041/1
2017 - Paul Dunne -20 70.069/1
What Will it Take to Win the British Masters?
I couldn't find any stats for the 2001 and 2002 editions of the Benson & Hedges International but there are enough clues from the other ten events staged here this century to suggest accuracy is important on approach.
The first four home last year ranked fourth, second, 10th and fifth for Greens In Regulation and Matteo Manassero, who topped the GIR stats for the week finished tied for sixth.
The 2023 winner, Daniel Hillier, only ranked 20th for GIR, but Oliver Wilson, who finished tied second topped the rankings.
The 2022 winner, Thorbjorn Olesen, won courtesy of a red-hot putter and he only ranked 60th for GIR but four of the placed players ranked inside the top-six for GIR and Richard Bland ranked number one for Driving Accuracy and second for GIR when he won here four years ago.
The two playoff protagonists at the UK Championship in 2020, Rasmus Hojgaard and Justin Walters, ranked tied sixth for GIR and in behind them, Martin Kaymer, who finished tied third, ranked second for GIR, with Craig Howie (T5) and Calum Hill (T9), ranking fourth and fifth for that stat. The two players tied for third in 2021, Miko Korhonen and Dave Coupland, ranked third and fifth for GIR.
Last year's winner, Niklas Norgaard, drove the ball magnificently, ranking first for Driving Distance and fourth for Driving Accuracy and the 2023 winner, Hillier, ranked fourth for DD and 20th for DA but Olesen ranked only 67th for DA three years ago and Bland ranked only 52nd for DD in 2021 so I wouldn't get too hung up on the driving metrics.
Like Olesen three years ago, who holed some ridiculous putts late on, Hojgaard putted particularly well here in 2020, ranking first for Putting Average, but last year's winner, Norgaard, only ranked 25th for PA, Hillier, only ranked 31st in 2023 and Bland ranked 48th four years ago.
Norgaard only ranked 25th for Scrambling and that's perhaps not surprising when you see how he played the 15th in round four but prior to last year, that's been the key stat to concentrate.
Hillier ranked fifth in 2023, the first two home ranked fourth and ninth in 2022 and Richie Ramsay, who finished tied for third, ranked first. The first three home in 2021 ranked first, second and fourth for Scrambling and Lee Westwood and Gonzalo Fernandez Castano won here ranking first and fourth for that stat.
Look to Belgium for Belfry clues
Guido Migliozzi, who lost a playoff here four years ago, has won at the Soudal Open venue, Rinkven, the 2022 winner, Olesen, was third there in 2023 and last year's winner, Norgaard, finished tied for second there before winning here.
Ewen Ferguson, who was fourth here in 2023, should have won this year's Soudal Open and the man that finished runner-up to Norgaard here 12 months ago, Thriston Lawrence, finished fourth in Belgium in May.
Both are tree-lined layouts so it's not entirely surprising that the two tracks correlate nicely.
Will we witness another Danish victory?
As many as seven different Englishmen have won this title this century but in the last five years we've seen two Danes, a Kiwi, an Italian and a Swede take the title and since England's Peter Baker won at Woburn 31 years ago, we've seen winners from all over the world. And the event wasn't played at all between 2008 and 2015.
In addition to the winners from the aforementioned New Zealand, Denmark, Italy and Sweden, there have been victories for players from Australia, the USA, France, Spain, Ireland, Wales and Scotland.
In addition to the English faring well, we've seen three Swedes win the title in the last 12 years, but a Dane has won three of the last five events staged at the Belfry.
The Danes are likely to be feeling nicely refreshed after taking in their homeland last week and a fourth Danish victory in six years at the Belfry could be on the cards.
Profile of Belfry winners changing
The three B&H winners here have all won major championships and both Lee Westwood and Paul Casey were once considered players that really should have won one.
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and the 2022 winner, Olesen, have won seven and eight times respectively on the DP World Tour and Johan Edfors was very much the man to beat back in 2006. He only won three DP World Tour events but all three were between March and July in 2006, so he was in great form when he won here but this is becoming a tough tournament to predict given four of the last six winners have been matched at a triple-figure price before the off.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2024 - Niklas Norgaard - led by four 1.511/2
2023 - Daniel Hillier - tied 11th, trailing by three 90.089/1
2022 - Thorbjorn Olesen - led by three 2.447/5
2021 - Richard Bland - tied 12th, trailing by three 110.0109/1
2020 - Rasmus Hojgaard - tied fourth, trailing by five 18.017/1
In-Play Tactics
Despite his hiccup on 15, Nogaard won comfortably enough by two strokes last year but we've witnessed all sorts of drama in running here and it's a great place to trade on Sunday.
The 2023 winner, Hillier, was matched at a high of 500.0499/1 in round four before finishing eagle-birdie-eagle-par to win by two and he was the fourth course winner in-a-row to have been matched at a big price on Sunday.
Having led by three through 54 holes, Olesen struggled badly in round four and having been matched at a low of 1.75/7, the Dane drifted all the way out to 44.043/1 before he finished strongly to win in 2022 and a year earlier, Richard Bland was matched at 110.0109/1 before the final round started.
Having gone off at around 22.021/1, Rasmus Hojgaard was matched at a high of 200.0199/1 in-running in 2020, after an opening 73 had seen him trail by nine, and he was still seven back at halfway and five adrift through 54 holes.
With so many players trading at huge odds before winning, it stands to reason that we've seen plenty of players trade at odds-on before losing.
Last year's winner, Norgaard hit a low of 1.584/7 in 2023 before finishing seventh, Rickie Ramsay was matched at a low of 1.42/5 before he double bogeyed the 72nd hole and Sebastian Soderberg was matched at just 1.061/18 as he sat in the clubhouse three years ago.
Guido Migliozzi traded at a low of 1.251/4 in regulation play before losing in a playoff in 2021, and Martin Kaymer hit a low of 1.341/3 before also losing in extra time in 2020.
Despite last year's result, this is clearly a great track for Sunday trading and taking on the leaders.
Reitan ready to double up
It's taken until the middle of August for someone to claim a second DP World Tour victory this season.
Up until last week, all 26 regular events (not including majors) had been won by someone different and had Rasmus Hojgaard kicked on in round four on Sunday in Denmark that would still be the case but after Marco Penge has doubled up, winning the Hainan Classic in April and the Danish Golf Championship last week, I fancy this year's Soudal Open winner, Kristoffer Reitan, can emulate him.
As highlighted above, the Soudal Open venue appears to correlate brilliantly with the Belfry and with form figures since April reading 1-2-13-46-4-13-30-3-6, the in-form Norwegian looks worth chancing. He's a tasty 25/126.00 with the Sportsbook and he's fractionally bigger on the Exchange.
Reitan played very nicely for much of last week's tournament and had he not made a quadruple bogey eight at the par four seventh on Thursday he may well have been involved in the shake up.
Back Kristoffer Reitan