Arnold Palmer Invitational: Fitzpatrick fancied at 39/1

• Scottish Open form well worth considering

• Greens In Refulation the key stat

• Read my Johnson Workwear Open preview here

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Tournament History

Originally called the Florida Citrus Open and first staged back in 1966, the tournament was won by Arnold Palmer in 1971. Palmer then took over the event in 1979 and moved it to Bay Hill Country Club.

It's been called the Bay Hill Invitational in the past, but it's now well established as the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and this will be the 46^th renewal at Bay Hill.

Venue

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida.

Course Details

Par 72, 7,466 yards
Stroke average in 2023 - 73.9

Originally designed in 1960 by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee, Arnold Palmer bought Bay Hill in 1976 and he spent the rest of his life tinkering with it. It played as a par 70 in-between 2007-09 but after a major renovation it reverted back to a par 72 in 2010.

There are 84 bunkers and water is in-play on half the holes. All the greens were changed to Emerald Bermuda before the 2010 edition but they came in for much criticism in 2015 as they weren't in good conditions at all with a couple of players anonymously commentating on them before the off. "Speed may be a bit of an issue," said one competitor, "It looks like a comb-over!" said another. Arnie took the hint and after the event they were all changed again - this time to TifEagle Bermudagras.

The bigger than average greens can be set at a fast 13.5 on the Stimpmeter and the rough is usually set at a minimum of 3 ½ inches high. Even if the wind doesn't get up, the course is still a proper test and since 1988, only three men have shot four rounds in the 60s - the runner-up, Kevin Chappell, eight years ago, the winner, Matt Every, in 2015, and the runner-up in 2008, Bart Bryant.

The par five sixth is a fascinating U-shaped par five where we witnessed all sorts of fun in 2021 with the eventual winner, Bryson DeChambeau, attempting what had previously been considered as the impossible.

Drive: 377 yards.
Distance to the pin: 88 yards.@B_DeChambeau does it again at No. 6.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/HYSyDvQCMm

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 7, 2021

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:30 on Thursday.

Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Prices

• 2023 - Kurt Kitayama -9 420.0419/1
• 2022 - Scottie Scheffler -5 25.024/1
• 2021 - Bryson DeChambeau -11 15.014/1
• 2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -4 70.069/1
• 2019 - Francesco Molinari -12 70.069/1
• 2018 - Rory McIlroy -18 20.019/1
• 2017 - Marc Leishman -11 160.0159/1
• 2016 - Jason Day -17 18.017/1

What Will it Take to Win the Arnold Palmer?

Unsurprisingly, nobody hit it further off the tee than Bryson in 2021 and Rory McIlroy also ranked number one for Driving Distance when he won here six years ago.

The 2016 champ, Jason Day, ranked sixth and Martin Laird ranked fifth for DD in 2011 but although a long track, length hasn't been imperative. Kitayama ranked 31^st last year and the other eight winners over the last 13 years have ranked 13^th, 45^th, 36^th, 11th, 49th, 48th, 34^th, and 26^th.

Kitayama and Harris English, who finished alongside McIlroy in a tie for second last year, both tied first for Driving Accuracy and the 2019 winner, Francesco Molinari, ranked third for DA but that's unusual.

The three winners before Kitayama ranked 55^th, 25^th and 33^rd for DA and the six winners before Molinari ranked 71st, 51st, 32nd, 44th, 17th and 48^th.

Although he only ranked 14^th for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Kitayama ranked second for Greens In Regulation and they're the two most important stats to concentrate on.

The first and second in 2021, DeChambeau and Lee Westwood, ranked second and first for both GIR and SG: T2G and they're the two key stats to concentrate on.

Bay Hill's greens aren't easy to hit and six of the last seven winners have ranked inside the top-ten for GIR. And the last eight winners have ranked 14^th eighth, second, fifth, 13^th, seventh, 13^th and fourth for Strokes Gained: T2G.

Is There an Angle In?

Course form is usually vital at Bay Hill and Kitayama was the first debutant to win the title since Robert Gamez, way back in 1990.

Scheffler had finished 15^th on his only previous outing here when he won here two years ago but in four previous visits to Bay Hill, the 2021 winner, DeChambeau, had finished second and fourth and the four winners before him had all finished inside the top-five here before they won.

Matt Every was the seventh man to win the event more than once in 2015 and Tiger Woods has won the tournament a staggering eight times, so course form stands up really well and previous winners have a great record.

Links Lovers Enjoy Bay Hill

Links form has come to fore here over the years and more recently, for at the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club has been represented very strongly...

DeChambeau is yet to contend in an Open Championship but the man that ran him close three years ago, Westwood, is a renowned links exponent and that's been a common theme at Bay Hill.

The 2020 winner, Tyrrell Hatton, who was second in 2022, has won two Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, the two winners before him, Francesco Molinari and McIlroy, have both won the Open Championship and the two winners before that, Marc Leishman and Jason Day, very nearly have.

Leishman was beaten in a playoff in 2015 and Day finished one stroke behind the three playoff protagonists that year - Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, and the winner, Zach Johnson. And Oosty and Zach both have top-tens at Bay Hill on their CVs.

The 2010 winner, Els is a two-time Open champ and Tiger Woods can play links tracks quite well too, but the Scottish Open is the one event to really concentrate on.

Last year's surprise winner, Kitayama, finished runner-up to Xander Schauffele at the Renaissance Club in 2022 and Schauffele was sitting third here at halfway last year. And there were three Bay Hill winners inside the top-six in the Scottish Open last year - McIlroy, Scheffler and Hatton.

Is There an Identikit Winner

Although the last three winners have been Americans, overseas players have a great record here.

Norway's Viktor Hovland was alongside Hatton and Billy Horschel in second in 2022, the second and third in 2021 and the first three home in 2020 were all from overseas and, having won the Cognizant Classic the week before, Keith Mitchell, who finished tied sixth, was the only American inside the top-nine places six years.

The five winners before Bryson were all overseas players and that 2019 edition was the first event since the 2010 Open Championship that no Americans were in the top-five in a PGA Tour event. And it was the first time in at least 15 years that no American had finished inside the top-five in a PGA Tour event on American soil.

Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

• 2023 - Kurt Kitayama led by a stroke 7.87/1
• 2022 - Scottie Scheffler solo third - trailing by two 7.06/1
• 2021 - Bryson DeChambeau T2 - trailing by one 3.412/5
• 2020 - Tyrrell Hatton led by two strokes 3.8514/5
• 2019 - Francesco Molinari T17 - trailing by five 130.0129/1
• 2018 - Rory McIlroy solo 3rd - trailing by two 4.94/1
• 2017 - Marc Leishman T3 - trailing by three 16.015/1
• 2016 - Jason Day led by two strokes 1.9210/11

In-Play Tactics

Tiger's record here is incredible, and he was in front at halfway for four of his eight Bay Hill wins but if you disregard the GOAT, we're left with a mixed bag of results here.

In the last 14 years, Kitayama, Hatton, Woods, Ernie Els and Martin Laird have all gone on to win having led through 36 holes and Jason Day won wire-to-wire in 2016, but we've seen a couple of off the pace winners of late too.

Scottie Scheffler was matched at a high of 420.0419/1 when he trailed by eight at halfway two years ago, Francesco Molinari was matched at 180.0179/1 before round four - five years ago, having tumbled from third to 17th with a three-over-par 73 on Saturday, and Rory McIlroy sat 13th and 11th, trailing by five and six strokes after rounds one and two in 2018.

All three of those winners are major champions so they're capable of making the extraordinary look conventional and winning from off the pace isn't easy but the stats tell us that being in front hasn't been ideal of late, with seven of the last ten third round leaders having failed to convert.

And it's also worth highlighting that as many as 21 players have held a clear lead at halfway in the last 28 years and only seven of them went on to win.

Bay Hill's a tough venue, getting to the winning line is difficult, it's been a great place to take on odds-on shots in-running.

Rory McIlroy was matched at a low of 1.9420/21 in-running last year and when he hit a low of 1.855/6 in 2019, before finishing sixth, he was the sixth player in seven years to trade at odds-on and get beat and two players went odds-on in 2022 before getting beat.

The halfway leader, Viktor Hovland, hit a low of 1.695/7 and Gary Woodland was matched at just 1.75/7 when he hit the front with an eagle at the par five 16^th on Sunday before he double bogeyed the tough par three 17^th.

If you plan to trade in-running, bear in mind how difficult the finish is here. The par five 16th is the easiest on the course, averaging just 4.56 last year but with four of the final five holes averaging over-par year after year, that's the only respite coming in.

One final strange thing of note, despite some thrilling close finishes, there hasn't been a playoff here this century.

Market Leaders

It's now almost a whole year since Scottie Scheffler last won (the Players Championship) and it's obvious why.

The world number one continues to play imperious golf from tee-to-green, but the putter still isn't behaving.

He actually ranked sixth and fourth for Putting Average when finishing third in the Phoenix Open and 10th at the Genesis Invitational in his last two starts. But that's a bit misleading.

Time and time again he missed chances from short range, and he ranked only 44^th and 51^st for Strokes Gained: Putting.

Scheffler has course form figures reading 15-1-4 and he won't mind the windy weather forecast for the weekend but whether he holes enough putts to win the title again is debatable.

Rory McIlroy is playing Bay Hill for the 10th time, and he too is looking to win the event for a second time.

With course form figures reading 11-27-4-1-6-5-10-13-2, McIlroy clearly loves the venue but like the favourite, Scheffler, Rory hasn't been at his best on the greens of late.

Since winning the Dubai Desert Classic in January, he's finished 66^th, 24^th and 21^st on the PGA Tour. He's ranked only 43^rd, 50^th and 44^th for Putting Average and 64^th, 27^th and 64^th for SG: Putting.

With course form figures reading 40-42-49-2-10, Viktor Hovland is clearly getting to grips with Bay Hill but, in his three starts in 2024, the Norwegian has finished 22^nd, 58^th and 19^th , so he's yet to get going and I'm happy to swerve him at 20.019/1.

Selection

I've always thought this was the perfect course for Tommy Fleetwood and, if he's ever to get off the mark on the PGA Tour, it could well be here. But at a bigger price his fellow Englsihman, Matt Fitzpatrick, is the value play.

Like McIlroy, Fitzpatrick is playing here for the 10th time, and he has course form figures reading MC-27-13-MC-2-9-10-9-14, so it took a little while for him to get to grips with the track.

Fitzpatrick hasn't set the world alight yet in 2024 but he broke par every day last week when finishing tied for 21^st at the Cognizant Classic and I thought 40.039/1 was more than fair.

The 29-year-old won in the States last April at the RBC Heritage around Harbour Town Links and he won the Alfred Dunhill Links in impressive fashion as recently as October.

Fitzpatrick was an unlucky playoff loser at the aforementioned Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in 2021 and he won't care how hard the wind blows over the weekend.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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