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What happened last week? Long odds-on Lowry caught out by the Bear Trap
For the second week in-a-row on the DP World Tour, Casey Jarvis was the only player to trade at odds-on.
A week after winning his first DP World Tour title at the Kenya Open by three strokes, when a 36.035/1 chance before the off, the 22-year-old has won the South African Open by the same margin.
Jarvis was a 30.029/1 chance before the off and he was still trading at as big as 28.027/1 when he trailed the halfway leader, Francesco Laporta, by five but he was a 2.89/5 chance when he led by one with 18 to play.
He started round four nicely, birdying three of the first five holes, and victory never really looked in doubt.
Jarvis is the second South African this season to get off the mark on the DP World Tour before doubling up the following week.
Jayden Schaper won the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritius Open back-to-back in December.
Over on the PGA Tour, course specialist, Shane Lowry, was tied for the lead with Austin Smotherman with a round to go at the Cognizant Classic and he was trading at around 6/42.50 but it was pre-event 65.064/1 chance, Nico Echavarria, that started round four the best.
Having trailed by a stroke and having been a 5/16.00 chance with 18 to play, the Colombian, who I'd backed at halfway at 10.519/2, hit as low as 2.226/5 before Lowry bounced back around the turn.
After a brilliant par save at the eighth, Lowry chipped in for birdie at 10, eagled the 11th, and added two more birdies at 12 and 13.
The Irishman stretched his lead to three and he was matched at as low as 1.031/33 but the finish to PGA National is notoriously tricky, with holes 15, 16 and 17 nicknamed the Bear Trap, and after he'd double-bogeyed the 16th after finding water off the tee, he hit this awful shot off the tee at the par three 17th.
Having birdied the 17th minutes before Lowry's demise at the hole, Echavarria was able to coast to his third PGA Tour title with a par at the last.
Lowry was understandably shaken by the shocking finish, as no doubt were his long odds-on backers!
Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament History
Originally called the Florida Citrus Open and first staged back in 1966, the tournament was won by Arnold Palmer in 1971. Palmer then took over the event in 1979 and moved it to Bay Hill Country Club.
It's been called the Bay Hill Invitational in the past, but it's now well established as the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and this will be the 48th renewal at Bay Hill.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the third Signature Event of the year.
Venue
Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida
Course Details
Par 72, 7,466 yards
Stroke average in 2025 - 72.58
Originally designed in 1960 by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee, Arnold Palmer bought Bay Hill in 1976 and he spent the rest of his life tinkering with it. It played as a par 70 in-between 2007-09 but after a major renovation it reverted back to a par 72 in 2010.
There are 84 bunkers and water is in-play on half the holes. All the greens were changed to Emerald Bermuda before the 2010 edition but they came in for much criticism in 2015 as they weren't in good conditions at all with a couple of players anonymously commentating on them before the off. "Speed may be a bit of an issue," said one competitor, "It looks like a comb-over!" said another. Arnie took the hint and after the event they were all changed again - this time to TifEagle Bermudagras.
The bigger than average greens can be set at a fast 13.5 on the Stimpmeter and the rough is usually set at a minimum of 3 ½ inches high. Even if the wind doesn't get up, the course is still a proper test and since 1988, only three men have shot four rounds in the 60s - the runner-up, Kevin Chappell, 10 years ago, the winner, Matt Every, in 2015, and the runner-up in 2008, Bart Bryant.
Bay Hill has averaged over-par for the week at each of the last nine editions.
The par five sixth is a fascinating U-shaped par five where we witnessed all sorts of fun in 2021 with the eventual winner, Bryson DeChambeau, attempting what had previously been considered as the impossible.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 16:00 on Thursday.
Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Prices
2025 - Russell Henley -11 50.049/1
2024 - Scottie Scheffler -15 8.88/1
2023 - Kurt Kitayama -9 420.0419/1
2022 - Scottie Scheffler -5 25.024/1
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau -11 15.014/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -4 70.069/1
2019 - Francesco Molinari -12 70.069/1
2018 - Rory McIlroy -18 20.019/1
2017 - Marc Leishman -11 160.0159/1
2016 - Jason Day -17 18.017/1
What Will it Take to Win the Arnold Palmer?
Unsurprisingly, nobody hit it further off the tee than Bryson in 2021 and Rory McIlroy also ranked number one for Driving Distance when he won here eight years ago.
The 2016 champ, Jason Day, ranked sixth and Martin Laird ranked fifth for DD in 2011 but although a long track, length hasn't been imperative.
Russell Henley ranked only 50th for DD last year and the other 10 winners over the last 15 years have ranked 13th, 45th, 36th, 11th, 49th, 48th, 34th, 26th, 31st and 37th.
Kurt Kitayama ranked tied first for Driving Accuracy three years ago and the 2019 winner, Francesco Molinari, ranked third for DA but that's unusual.
The last two winners have ranked 34th and 38th and the three winners before Kitayama ranked 55th, 25th and 33rd for DA. And the six winners before Molinari ranked 71st, 51st, 32nd, 44th, 17th and 48th.
A year after Scheffler had ranked second for Greens In Regulation and first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green when lifting the trophy for a second time, Henley ranked second and third for those two metrics and they're the two most important stats to concentrate on.
Although they're big, Bay Hill's greens aren't easy to hit, and they rank inside the top-10 hardest to hit in regulation almost every year on the PGA Tour.
As many as eight of the last nine winners have ranked inside the top ten for GIR and the last nine winners have ranked third, first, 14th eighth, second, fifth, 13th, seventh, 13th and fourth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Henley ranked eighth for both Putting Average and Scrambling but we've seen plenty of winners here with ordinary putting and scrambling numbers.
Is There an Angle In?
Course form is usually vital at Bay Hill and Kitayama was the first debutant to win the title since Robert Gamez, way back in 1990.
Henley had finished fourth in 2024 and Scheffler had finished 15th on his only previous outing here when he won here for the first time four years ago but in four previous visits to Bay Hill, the 2021 winner, DeChambeau, had finished second and fourth and the four winners before him had all finished inside the top-five here before they won.
Scheffler was the eighth man to win the event more than once and Tiger Woods has won the tournament a staggering eight times, so course form stands up really well and previous winners have a great record.
Links Lovers Enjoy Bay Hill?
Links form has come to the fore here over the years and more recently, form at the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club has been represented very strongly...
Henley has never played in the Scottish Open, but he's finished fifth and 10th in the last two Open Championships and Collin Morikawa, was finished second here last year after trading at as short as 1.11/10 when he led by three with just five holes to play, won the Open in 2021 and he finished fourth at the Renaissance Club in 2024.
Although he's finished eighth and 10th previously, DeChambeau is yet to really contend in an Open Championship but the man that ran him close here five years ago, Lee Westwood, is a renowned links exponent and that's been a common theme at Bay Hill.
The 2020 winner, Tyrrell Hatton, who was second in 2022, has won three Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, the two winners before him, Francesco Molinari and Rory McIlroy, have both won the Open Championship and the two winners before that, Marc Leishman and Jason Day, very nearly have.
Leishman was beaten in a playoff in 2015 and Day finished one stroke behind the three playoff protagonists that year - Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, and the winner, Zach Johnson. And Oosty and Zach both have top-tens at Bay Hill on their CVs.
The 2010 winner, Els is a two-time Open champ and Tiger Woods could play links tracks quite well too, but the Scottish Open is the one event to really concentrate on.
The 2023 surprise winner, Kitayama, finished runner-up to Xander Schauffele at the Renaissance Club in 2022 and Schauffele was sitting third here at halfway in 2023.
Adam Scott, who led the Arnold Palmer Invitational by seven at halfway in 2014, finished second in Scotland in 2024 and there were three Bay Hill winners inside the top six in the Scottish Open in 2023 - McIlroy, Scheffler and Hatton.
Is There an Identikit Winner
Although the last five winners have been Americans, overseas players have a great record here.
Norway's Viktor Hovland was alongside Hatton and Billy Horschel in second in 2022, the second and third in 2021 and the first three home in 2020 were all from overseas and, having won the Cognizant Classic the week before, Keith Mitchell, who finished tied sixth, was the only American inside the top nine places eight years ago.
The five winners before Bryson were all overseas players and that 2019 edition was the first event since the 2010 Open Championship that no Americans were in the top five in a PGA Tour event. And it was the first time in at least 15 years that no American had finished inside the top five in a PGA Tour event on American soil.
Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four
2025 - Russell Hanley second, trailing by one 4.131/10
2024 - Scottie Scheffler tied for the lead 2.89/5
2023 - Kurt Kitayama led by a stroke 7.87/1
2022 - Scottie Scheffler solo third - trailing by two 7.06/1
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau T2 - trailing by one 3.412/5
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton led by two strokes 3.8514/5
2019 - Francesco Molinari T17 - trailing by five 130.0129/1
2018 - Rory McIlroy solo 3rd - trailing by two 4.94/1
2017 - Marc Leishman T3 - trailing by three 16.015/1
2016 - Jason Day led by two strokes 1.9210/11
In-Play Tactics
Tiger's record here is incredible, and he was in front at halfway for four of his eight Bay Hill wins but if you disregard the GOAT, we're left with a mixed bag of results here.
In the last 16 years, Scheffler, Kitayama, Hatton, Woods, Ernie Els and Martin Laird have all gone on to win having led through 36 holes and Jason Day won wire-to-wire in 2016, but we've seen a couple of off the pace winners of late too.
Scottie Scheffler was matched at a high of 420.0419/1 when he trailed by eight at halfway when he won the event for the first time four years ago, Francesco Molinari was matched at 180.0179/1 before round four - seven years ago, having tumbled from third to 17th with a three-over-par 73 on Saturday, and Rory McIlroy sat 13th and 11th, trailing by five and six strokes after rounds one and two in 2018.
All three of those winners are major champions so they're capable of making the extraordinary look conventional and winning from off the pace isn't easy but the stats tell us that being in front hasn't been ideal of late, with eight of the last 12 third round leaders having failed to convert.
Removing Tiger from the equation, who converted all three of his 36-hole leads at Bay Hill, 16 different players have held a clear lead at halfway in the last 30 years and only four of them went on to win.
Bay Hill's a tough venue, getting to the winning line is difficult, and it's been a great place to take on odds-on shots in-running.
As already mentioned, Morikawa was matched at 1/101.10 12 months ago, McIlroy was matched at a low of 1.9420/21 in-running three years ago and when he hit a low of 1.855/6 in 2019, before finishing sixth, he was the sixth player in seven years to trade at odds-on and get beat. And two players went odds-on in 2022 before getting beat.
The halfway leader, Viktor Hovland, hit a low of 1.695/7 and Gary Woodland was matched at just 1.75/7 when he hit the front with an eagle at the par five 16th on Sunday before he double bogeyed the tough par three 17th.
If you plan to trade in-running, bear in mind how difficult the finish is here. The par five 16th is the easiest on the course, averaging just 4.34 last year but with four of the final five holes averaging over-par year after year, that's the only respite coming in.
Holes 14, 15, 17 and 18 ranked as four of the hardest five on the course (hole two ranked fourth) and combined they averaged 0.9 of a stroke over-par.
One final strange thing of note, despite some thrilling close finishes, there still hasn't been a playoff here this century.
Scheffler fancied to rack up the hat-trick
Since coasting to a four-stroke victory in The American Express in January, Scottie Scheffler has started his next three events uncharacteristically poorly.
A 73 on day one of the Phoenix Open saw him trailing by 10 and he was 10 adrift at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the following week, where he opened the week with a 72.
It was bizarre to see the world number one start so slowly but he still managed to finish third in Phoenix, beaten by one, and fourth at Pebble, beaten by two, but after another tardy start two weeks ago, where he sat tied for 63rd after a 74 at Riviera, he could only finish 12th behind Jacob Bridgeman.
I like his chances again here. He's looking to win the event for a third time in five years but my pre-event bet is tiny after his last three starts.
It's almost inconceivable that he can do it a fourth time in-a-row, but it doesn't make sense to lump on before the off.
Back Scottie Scheffler
I've had a very small bet at 4.77/2 now but I'll be around on Thursday so I'll look to trade him heavily in-running to get him on side, should he finally start a bit better.