Tournament History
After Jon Rahm's third win in the Open de España last week, the DP World Tour takes in the second of three straight events in Spain - the Andalucía Masters.
The tournament made a welcome return to the DP World Tour schedule five years ago, seven years after it had last been staged. The tournament had only twice previously been played with Graeme McDowell winning the inaugural event in 2010 before Sergio Garcia claimed the second edition 12 months later.
Venue
Real Club Valderrama, Sotogrande, Spain
Course Details
Par 71, 7,028 yards
Stroke Index in 2021 - 73.08
Designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr, and opened in 1985, Valderrama is a delightful but tough, short, tree-lined course with Bermuda fairways and Bentgrass greens.
In addition to this tournament, Valderrama was also used on the DP World Tour in April 2016 when it hosted the Open de España, won by Andrew Johnston, and prior to the inception of the Race to Dubai it was the home of the now defunct season ending, money list deciding, Volvo Masters, between 1988 and 1996, and again between 2002 and 2008.
Valderrama was also the host venue for the 1997 Ryder Cup and for the WGC-American Express Championship in 1999 and 2000.
It's a demanding but beautiful course with narrow slopping fairways, framed by cork trees. The greens are smaller than average, undulating and they usually run at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Water is in play on holes four, ten and 17.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:00 on Thursday
First Seven Tournament Winners with Pre-event Exchange
2010 - Graeme McDowell -2 16.531/2
2011 - Sergio Garcia -6 7.413/2
2012-2016 - No Event
2017 - Sergio Garcia -12 7.06/1
2018 - Sergio Garcia -12 (54 holes) 5.59/2
2019 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -10 120.0119/1
2020 - John Catlin +2 240.0239/1
2021 - Matt Fitzpatrick -6 20.019/1
What Will it Take to Win the Andalucía Masters?
Valderrama is a tight track off the tee and the greens are small so accuracy is the key to success. When winning the Open de España six years ago, Andrew Johnston ranked first for both Driving Accuracy and Greens In Regulation and they're often the key stats.
I've looked back at the last three Volvo Masters tournaments to be staged here, as well as the seven results of this event, and at Johnson's win five years ago, and the stats are pretty similar. See below.
2021 Matt Fitzpatrick -6 (DD: 26, DA: 44, GIR: 32, Sc: 1, PA: 35)
2020 John Catlin +2 (DD: 42, DA: 4, GIR: 28, Sc: 5, PA: 33)
2019 Christiaan Bezuidenhout -10 (DD: 53, DA: 18, GIR: 66, Sc: 1, PA: 1)
2018 Sergio Garcia -12 (DD: 16, DA: 10, GIR: 4, Sc: 6, PA: 7)
2017 Sergio Garcia -12 (DD: 8, DA: 12, GIR: 9, Sc: 27, PA: 9)
2016 Andrew Johnston - (DD: 35, DA: 1, GIR: 1, Sc: 20, PA: 25)
2011 Sergio Garcia -6 (DD: 24, DA: 10, GIR: 10, Sc: 4, PA: 8)
2010 Graeme McDowell -3 (DD: 47, DA: 6, GIR: 1, Sc: 18, PA: 4)
2008 Soren Kjeldsen -8 (DD: 41, DA: 29, GIR: 22, Sc: 4, PA: 12)
2007 Justin Rose -1 (DD: 4, DA: 26, GIR: 8, Sc: 7, PA: 3)
2006 Jeev Milkha Singh -2 (DD: 52, DA: 52, GIR: 17, Sc: 16, PA: 15)
DD= Driving Distance
DA= Driving Accuracy
GIR=Greens In Regulation
Sc=Scrambling
PA=Putting Average
The last three winners' rankings of 32nd, 28th and 66th for Greens In Regulation have very much gone against the grain as the previous eight course winners had an average GIR ranking of just 9.0.
Hitting the tiny greens is important and getting up-and-down when they're inevitably missed is also key.
Fitzpatrick and the 2019 winner, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, both topped the Scrambling stats and the first and second in 2020 ranked fifth and second, with Justin Harding, in tied third, ranking fourth.
Although not right on the coastline, Valderrama often experiences windy conditions and that's another reason for the often higher than average scoring.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
The cream tends to rise to the top at Valderrama so having two outsiders win in 2019 (Christiaan Bezuidenhout) and 2020 (John Catlin) was unusual, although both have gone on to win multiple DP World Tour events since they won here.
Last year's victor, Fitzpatrick, has since won the US Open and major winners Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Graeme McDowell, Tiger Woods, Mike Weir and Bernhard Langer have all won here. And Ian Poulter, Colin Montgomerie, Paul McGinley, Mark McNulty and Soren Kjeldsen are all multiple winning, top-class pros that have tasted success at the venue.
Last Six Tournament Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Final Round
2021 - Matt Fitzpatrick solo second, trailing by three 4.3100/30
2020 - John Catlin - led by two 3.052/1
2019 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout led by five strokes 1.564/7
2018 - Sergio Garcia led by four strokes 1.152/13
2017 - Sergio Garcia led by one stroke 1.75/7
2011 - Sergio Garcia led by two strokes 1.674/6
2010 - Graeme McDowell tied for the lead 1.768/11
In-Play Tactics
Fitzpatrick sat tied for 11th and four of the lead after round one last year but he sat second after rounds two and three and John Catlin led after every round in 2020.
Having sat second and one back after the opening round, Bezuidenhout dominated the event thereafter in 2019. He was leading by four at halfway, by five through 54 holes and he went on to win by six!
The event was reduced to three rounds in 2018 but the result was never really in doubt then either. Garcia sat third and two off the lead after round one but a sensational 64 saw him scoot four clear after round two and he went on to maintain the margin at the finishing line.
Having been tied for the lead after round one, Garcia and Luiten dominated the event five years ago, never falling outside the first three places at any stage, and in what transpired to be another example of the class-acts dominating at Valderrama, the two finished the week separated by a solitary stroke but four clear of the remainder. Yet another example of how important a fast start is.
Johnston sat second after rounds one, two and three when winning the Open de España here six years ago before pouncing to win.
The nine course winners before Fitzpatrick were all inside the front five places all week long and the four event winners before Fitzpatrick and the five course winners before Johnston were all in front with a round to go.
Every course winner and beaten playoff protagonist since 1996 (as far as I've gone back) has been inside the top-five places with a round to go, and all bar two have sat inside the front three, but it is possible to make up a deficit of strokes...
Simon Dyson and Soren Kjeldsen sat second and fourth, trailing by four and seven strokes respectively, with a round to go in 2007 but both made it to a playoff before getting beat by third round leader Justin Rose and Paul McGinley trailed by four after 54 holes when he won here in 2005. Poulter won from three back after three rounds in 2004 and Langer trailed by four in fifth place after 54 holes in 2002.
If you're planning to bet in-running, the finish is tough. The par five 17th is a birdie chance but it's risky to go for the green in two with water in play and holes 15, 16 and 18 ranked as the second, 11th and third hardest last year.
Market Leaders
Matt Fitzpatrick is a strong and worthy favourite to defend the title.
The US Open winner has already won two DP World Tour titles twice - the European Masters and the DP World Tour Championship - and he arrives in far better form than last year, having lost a playoff to Robert MacIntyre at the Italian Open last month before finishing 22nd at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
He was in poor form when he took the title 12 months and with just one missed cut to his name, he lacked course form, although a tricky, intricate track like Valderrama was always going to suit him.
Fitzpatrick is the man to beat for sure but it's hard to pick holes in the next four in the market, who all have impressive recent form.
Min Woo Lee did little wrong last week, being matched at a low of just 3.1511/5 during round four, after a slow start to the Open de España, Ryan Fox won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last time out two weeks ago, Rasmus Hojgaard was caught by Guido Migliozzi in Paris having dominated the Open de France and as already mentioned, Robert MacIntyre won the Italian Open last month.
Lee is looking to bounce back after last week's third and he's also looked for redemption having finished runner-up to Fitzpatrick last year.
Fox was fourth 12 months ago but of all the fancied runners, he's the one I like the least. His Greens In Regulation and Scrambling stats haven't been great of late and winning back-to-back tournaments is tough.
Hojgaard's 17th at the Alfred Dunhill was a fair effort following his defeat in Paris and his approach figures are very good but he could only finish 31st on debut here two years ago - shooting rounds of 71, 79, 75 and 70.
MacIntyre has ticked over nicely since winning in Italy, finishing eighth in the Open de France and 20th in the ADLC but in two previous visits to Valderrama he's finished only 24th and 53rd.
Selections
I've had a saver on Matt Fitzpatrick but the one I like here is Antoine Rozner, who looks a perfect fit.
The 29-year-old Frenchmen, who won the Golf In Dubai Championship in 2020 and the Qatar Masters in 2021, has been in great form of late with current figures reading 13-4-50-16-11-4 and he looks to be trending towards a third title.
Rozner, who was third here on debut in 2020 (missed the cut last year), currently ranks fourth for Greens In Regulation on the DP World Tour and his short game was on point last time out when he ranked sixth for Scrambling at the ADLC.
Given his stats, his current form, and his third here on his first look, Rozner looks highly likely to contend again and I thought 36.035/1 was more than fair.
Selections:
Matt Fitzpatrick @ 7.87/1
Antoine Rozner @ 36.035/1
I'll be back tomorrow with my ZOZO Championship preview.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter