The Punter's De-Brief: Hot Hodges goes wire-to-wire to deliver 99/1 winning bet

• Impressive winner ticked plenty of boxes

• Poston has no regrets after correct decision on 18

• Read my Wyndham Championship preview here

The 2022 3M Open champ Tony Finau began his title defence by playing his first four holes on Thursday morning in five-under-par. Finau, who was a pre-event 20/121.00 chance, was matched at a low of just 4.3100/30 when he was six-under after six, but he cooled off considerably after that.

Hideki Matsuyama missed numerous birdie putts, but he still shot seven-under-par and ended the first day trading at around 11/26.50 - a price I didn't think was too short.

Matsuyama's tee-to-green game had been immaculate on Thursday, and I felt he was fairly priced, but his putting woes continued in round two and his game unravelled. There are only so many short putts a player of his ability can miss before frustration sets in and affects the rest of his game.

As impressive as Matsuyama's first round was, one of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks, Lee Hodges, lead the field after an impressive bogey-free eight-under-par 63. On Friday afternoon, he kicked on nicely with another error-free round of 64.

Hodges lead the event by four at halfway and he was trading at around 15/82.88. That looked a fair price, given four-stroke 36-hole leaders had a 42% strike-rate on the PGA Tour since 1996, and anyone who jumped on board at that price had very little to worry about.

Hodges played his front nine on Saturday in level-par, with two birdies balancing out two bogeys. He put the event to bed after that with a quite brilliant five-under-par back-nine that saw him head into Sunday's fourth and final round leading by five.

Trading at 1.374/11, he again looked a reasonable price and after a birdie at two, the event was as good as over when he made this stunning eagle three at the par five sixth to lead by seven.

No regrets for ambitious Poston

To his credit, J.T Poston, who had begun the day trailing by five in solo second, kept plugging on and he got to within three of Hodges when they stood on the 18^th tee. After his tee-shot finished up inside the penalty area but dry, however, he had a decision to make.

Hodges had missed the fairway for the first time all week so he was forced to lay up in the fairway. Poston decided to take on what can only be described as an extremely ambitious second shot across the pond from a tricky lie below his feet.

Given he trailed by three but was three in front of Martin Laird and Kevin Streelman in tied third, taking the shot on made sense and you can see below how close he came to pulling it off.

Poston took his penalty drop and hit his fourth shot down the fairway. Second place still looked assured but he made a mess of it after that and eventually posted an eight which saw him finishing tied for second.

Going for the green had cost him $260,000 but to his credit again, he didn't regret it at all.

He's gone up in my estimation after that and he's 100% correct to have done what he did. It was highly unlikely but if he had given himself an eagle opportunity, who knows how Hodges would have reacted.

Hodges ticked all the boxes

We've only had five editions of the 3M Open but some strong trends are emerging.

Hodges is the fourth triple-figure-priced winner in five years, and he was a selection for me because of his position on the FedEx Cup rankings (74^th) his excellent approach figures, and his form at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Sitting at 74 in the rankings, Hodges needed a good week to get into the FedEx St Jude next week (the first of the three playoff events) and, as highlighted in the preview, that's an angle in again this week at the Wyndham Championship.

Strokes Gained Approach and Greens In Regulation had been the key stats in the first four editions of the 3M Open and Hodges went into the final round topping both those categories.

He slipped to tied ninth for GIR but still topped the SGA list at the end of round four. Given he had sat third at halfway on the first occasion, he played in the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2022, that remains an event that clearly correlates strongly.

Hodges is also the 18^th first time winner on the PGA Tour this season and he's the first wire-to-wire winner of the 3M Open.

There's no DP World Tour action again this week but the Wyndham Championship, which I've previewed here, is always a dramatic and enjoyable event to look forward to.

It's also a decent tournament for outsiders so after picking out Wyndham Clark to win the US Open at 120.0119/1 last month, and Hodges last week at 100.099/1, I'll be back tomorrow to see if I can unearth another longshot winner for the third month in-a-row.

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