3M Open 2025: Jump on Jake at 40/1

• Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach the key stats

• Look to Detroit for clues

• Fantastic event for longshots

Tournament History

We're back to more ordinary fare this week following last week's 153^rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush - as the PGA Tour pitches up in Minnesota for the 3M Open. 

The 3M Open is a relatively new event and this will be just the seventh edition.

Venue

TPC Three Cities, Blaine, Minnesota.

Course Details

Par 71, 7, 431 yards
Stroke Index in 2024 - 70.4

The Arnold Palmer designed TPC Three Cities opened in 2000 and in addition to the first six renewals of this event, it was also the host course for the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour between 2001 and 2018.

Prior to the inaugural edition of this event in 2019, it was said of the course that "the former sod farm had been transformed into a rolling landscape featuring 27 bodies of water, restoring several natural wetlands while framing holes with stands of mature oak and spruce trees."

Kenny Perry won three of the last five editions of the 3M Championship, winning the final edition after shooting 60 in round two. David Frost won the 2010 edition by seven strokes with a 25-under-par total and three of the last five winners amassed a winning score of at least 20-under-par. And Champions Tour events are staged over just three rounds!

Following Perry's final win here, and prior to the inaugural staging of this event, the course was altered somewhat and Minnesota native, Tom Lehman, who also helped with the initial design, was brought in to oversee a toughening up of the track. Mature trees were planted, fairways were narrowed slightly, new tees were constructed, and the course was lengthened by 354 yards in total. It certainly made a bit of difference although the eventual winner, Matthew Wolff, still got to 21-under-par.

Further changes were made prior to the 2020 edition. Fairways were narrowed on five holes, including the par five 18th, and bunkers on 10 holes were reworked but it made very little difference to the scoring.

The slightly bigger than average Bentgrass greens have been set at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter for each of the first six renewals.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 19:00 UK time.

First Six Winners with Exchange Prices

2019 - Matthew Wolff -21 220.0219/1
2020 - Michael Thompson -19 230.0229/1
2021 - Cameron Champ -15 120.0119/1
2022 - Tony Finau -17 13.012/1
2023 - Lee Hodges -24 100.099/1
2024 - Jhonnatan Vegas -17 130.0129/1

What Will it Take to Win the 3M Open?

We've only had six renewals so we probably shouldn't get too hung up on the stats, but it certainly looks like accurate approach play is the key to playing well here.

Looking at the traditional stats, the first five winners have ranked 36^th, 46^th, eighth, 16^th and seventh for Driving Distance and they've ranked 31^st, 22^nd, 49^th, sixth, 14^th and 12^th for Driving Accuracy. And they've ranked 21^st, 51^st, 40^th, third, 29^th and ninth for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

Both the 2022 winner, Tony Finau, and last year's victor, Jhonnatan Vegas, drove the ball nicely but neither length of accuracy off the tee looks essential.

Neither the inaugural winner, Matthew Wolff, or Finau putted sensationally, but the other four winners have all putted nicely.

Wolff ranked only 39^th for Strokes Gained: Putting and sixth for Putting Average and Finau ranked 42^nd and 37^th but the 2020 winner, Michael Thompson, ranked first for SGP and 20^th for PA, the 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, topped the rankings for both of those stats, Lee Hodges ranked second and fourth in 2023 and Vegas ranked eighth for SG: Putting and first for PA 12 months ago.

It's been a mixed bag for the stats around the green. The three winners between 2020 and 2022 ranked second, sixth and first for Scrambling and Finau also ranked second for Strokes Gained Around the Green, but Wolff ranked 18^th for SG: ATG, Thompson and Champ only ranked 53^rd and 48^th.

Scrambling was a key stat in 2023 with the first six home all ranking inside the top 10 but Vegas won last year ranking only 69^th for Scrambling and 53^rd for SG: Around the Green.

A good week with the putter has been important in four of the first six editions but overall, it looks like the two key stats to concentrate on are Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach.

Finau ranked third for both GIR and SG: Approach, Wolff ranked sixth and second and Thompson ranked third and fourth for those two stats.

Champ only ranked 22^nd for GIR and 19^th for SG: Approach but Louis Oosthuizen, who finished tied for second, ranked first and second for those two stats, Hodges ranked 14^th for GIR and first for SG: Approach two years ago and Vegas ranked seventh and eighth last year.

Is There an Angle In?

The Rocket Classic appears to correlate very nicely.

A year after winning the inaugural edition of this event, beating Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by a stroke, Wolff finished runner-up to DeChambeau in the second edition of the Rocket Classic, and Morikawa, who hasn't played in this event since he finished tied second in 2019, was beaten in a three-man playoff in his first appearance in the Rocket Classic in 2023.

Rickie Fowler, who shot 64 here to lead after round one four years ago when not playing well (finished T32), beat Morikawa in extra time two years ago and the third man in the playoff was Adam Hadwin, who has form figures in this event reading 4-6-38-MC-MC. He was also fourth in the Rocket Classic in 2020.

Max Homa, Cameron Tringale and Richy Werenski have contended strongly at both events, Brian Harman has finished inside the top ten at both venues, the 2022 runner-up here, Sungjae Im, and both Troy Merritt and Wyndham Clark, have top-eight finishes at both courses, Lucas Glover and Danny Willett have finished inside the top-seven at both tracks, and lesser lights Brian Stuard and Ryan Armour have finished inside the top-six at both venues.

Alex Noren, who has Rocket Classic form figures reading MC-4-9-MC, finished third here in his sole appearance in 2020, and although he has missed a couple of cuts at the Rocket Classic, the 2023 winner, Hodges, sat third at halfway on his debut in the event and eighth at halfway this year.

Finau won both events back-to-back in 2022 and last year's runner-up to Vegas, Max Greyserman, was beaten in a playoff in Detroit by Aldrich Potgieter three weeks ago so it looks like a very strong correlation.

Swerve the Open contenders and get with the Bubble Boys

Now that the majors are all done and dusted, the FedEx Cup Series is looming large and everyone's jockeying for position ahead of the opening event - the FedEx St Jude Championship - in less than a month's time.

Only the top-70 on the Fed-Ex Cup standings make it to the event so anyone in and around that mark may well play better than they have for some time.

The 2024 winner, Hodges, sat 74^th in the FedEx Cup Standings, last year's champ, Vegas, moved up from 149^th place to 67^th and Greyserman's second place finish sees him jump up from 88^th to 64^th in the Standings.

Conversely, those that contended in last week's Open Championship at Portrush could well be jaded and they might struggle to lift themselves for what's just a run of the mill event. Especially if they've already secured enough Fed-Ex Cup points to guarantee a place in the playoffs.

Finau won the 2022 edition after playing in the Open, but he was never in-contention - finished 28^th after making the cut on the number - and he'd had three weeks off before then, so he was nice and fresh.

For the fourth week in-a-row, if we disregard the Open and the Scottish Open, the PGA Tour is taking in a low scoring tournament on bentgrass greens so form at the aforementioned Rocket Classic and/or any of the last three events - the John Deere Classic, the ISCO Championship and the Barracuda Championship - is well worth consideration and I'd favour an outsider that's been creeping into form in the States over the last few weeks over one of the bigger names that's played in both the Scottish and the Open.

Finau went off favourite when winning three years ago but Champ won at a big price in 2021 having finished 11^th in the John Deere Classic in his penultimate start and Vegas had finished 25^th in the Rocket Classic and 20^th in the JDC in his two previous starts so that's the sort of form lines to be looking for.

Fantastic event for longshots

Hodges was a pick for the Find Me a 100 Column in 2023, the first three winners all went off at a triple-figure price and Vegas was a 130.0129/1 shot last year.

In addition to Vegas taking the title, three of the first four home were trading at a three-figure price before the off last year too so despite the 2022 result, it's been a fabulous event for outsiders so far.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2019 - Matthew Wolff - tied for the lead 8.88/1
2020- Michael Thompson - tied for the lead 4.84/1
2021 - Cameron Champ - tied 4^th, trailing by two 17.016/1
2022 - Tony Finau - tied third, trailing by five 6.86/1
2023 - Lee Hodges - led by five 1.374/11
2024 - Jhonattan Vegas - led by one 2.588/5

In-Play Tactics

We witnessed all sorts of shenanigans at TPC Three Cities in 2019, with three players trading at odds-on, and its testimony to Michael Thompson's ice-cool finish in 2020 that we didn't see far more drama in the second renewal.

At one stage there were 22 players within four of the lead and the eventual second, pre-event 1000.0999/1 shot, Adam Long, managed to tie for the lead when posting 17-under-par, having made the cut on the number, and having sat tied for 51st at halfway.

It was a similar story in 2019 when Wolff was able to win from off the pace. He trailed by seven in a tie for 49th after round one and he was eight adrift in a tie for 35th at halfway so we know it's possible to win from off the pace. Wolff went on to win by one after firing 62-65 over the weekend.

Champ was matched in-running at 700.0699/1 on Thursday in 2021 and he ended the first round five off the lead in a tie for 38^th. He was still four adrift at halfway (T19) and two off the lead with a round to go but he was the only man to trade at odds-on and he won comfortably by two.

Scott Piercy looked in control three years ago when he led by four with a round to go and he was matched at as low as 1.162/13 before he played the last six holes in five-over par to lose by four.

In contrast, Finau, who had trailed by five through 54 holes, birdied 14, 15 and 16 to put the tournament to bed before he bogeyed the par five finishing hole.

Hodges was a very impressive wire-to wire winner two years ago, leading by a stroke after round one, by four at halfway, and by five through 54 holes.

Vegas, who was five adrift after round one and four back at halfway, was the only player to trade at odds-on last year too but Matt Kuchar, who hit the front after two holes on Sunday, hit a low of 2.6613/8, Maverick McNealy, who finished alongside Kuchar in a tie for third, hit a low of 2.56/4 and Greyserman, who had been a 1000.0999/1 chance when trailing by eight with 18 to play, hit a low of 2.727/4 before Vegas held his nerve to win by a stroke.

Although Vegas and the first two winners were leading with a round to go, and Hodges obliterated the field from start to finish two years ago, as Greyserman demonstrated last year, it's clearly somewhere you can come with a late rattle, and it's already proved to be a great course for late drama so it's a fantastic event for trading on a Sunday.

Jump on Jake at 40/1

Sam Burns heads the market and with course form figures reading 7-32-12, Scottie Scheffler's best mate on Tour commands plenty of respect but he's not for me at less than 20/121.00 in an event that's been largely dominated by longshots.

Since trading at odds-on to win both the Canadian Open and the US Open in June, he's finished 17^th in the Travelers Championship, 47^th in the Scottish Open and 45^th last week in the Open, so it's been a tough month since his disappointing finish at Oakmont.

The next three in the betting, and the only other three players trading at less than 33/134.00 - Maverick McNealy, Chris Gotterup and Wyndham Clark - all line up after terrific finishes in Portrush at the weekend.

McNealy shot 69-66 over the weekend to climb from 51^st to 23^rd and he has course form figures reading 16-59-3.

As highlighted in the De-brief on Monday, Gotterup and Clark both look like potential future Open champs and they both arrive back in their homelands in remarkable form but as highlighted above, a great performance in the Open rarely results in a fabulous week at TPC Three Cities.

Clark has course form figures reading 5-MC-MC-38 and Gotterup has finished 31^st on debut in 2022 and 59^th last year, although he sat 106^th after a 75 on day one three years ago.

I thought I'd be swerving everyone towards the head of the market given the history of the event, but I couldn't resist a small play on Jake Knapp at 40/141.00 in the Sportsbook's Winner market.

Sitting tied for third and just two off the lead with a round to go at the Scottish Open, Knapp was an odds-on chance to qualify for his first Open Championship but having played his first five holes in two-under-par in round four, he lost the plot at the Renaissance Club and eventually finished tied for 22^nd after a four-over-par 74 on Sunday.

The winner, Gotterup, and the fast-finishing Dane, Nicolai Hojgaard, who finished tied for fourth, claimed the two remaining places in the field at Portrush as Knapp returned home to lick his wounds.

Knapp was forced to withdraw on debut here 12 months ago with a neck injury, but it looks just the sort of venue where he can make the most of his skillset.

With a benign weather forecast, TPC Three Cities looks set to play easy and Knapp is more than capable of going super low in any conditions, as he demonstrated when winning the Mexico Open last year in 19-under-par.

He shot a quite remarkable 59 in the Cognizant Classic around PGA National back in March and he was fourth at the Rocket Classic at the end of last month so he's clearly in form.

Missing out on last week's Open Championship may inspire him here and 40/141.00 looks more than fair.

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