3M Open: Davis can go in again at 47/1

• Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach the key stats

• Great event for outsiders

• Read my Open Championship De-brief here

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Tournament History

We're back to more ordinary fare this week following Xander Schauffele's brilliant win in the 152^nd Open Championship at Royal Troon - as the PGA Tour pitches up in Minnesota for the 3M Open.

The 3M Open is a relatively new event and this will be just the sixth edition.

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Venue

TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota

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Course Details

Par 71 - 7,431 yards

Stroke Index in 2023 - 69.71

The Arnold Palmer designed TPC Twin Cities opened in 2000 and in addition to the first five renewals of this event, it was also the host course for the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour between 2001 and 2018.

Prior to the inaugural edition of this event in 2019, it was said of the course that "the former sod farm had been transformed into a rolling landscape featuring 27 bodies of water, restoring several natural wetlands while framing holes with stands of mature oak and spruce trees."

Kenny Perry won three of the last five editions of the 3M Championship, winning the final edition after shooting 60 in round two. David Frost won the 2010 edition by seven strokes with a 25-under-par total and three of the last five winners amassed a winning score of at least 20-under-par. And Champions Tour events are staged over just three rounds!

Following Perry's final win here, and prior to the inaugural staging of this event, the course was altered somewhat and Minnesota native, Tom Lehman, who also helped with the initial design, was brought in to oversee a toughening up of the track. Mature trees were planted, fairways were narrowed slightly, new tees were constructed, and the course was lengthened by 354 yards in total. It certainly made a bit of difference although the eventual winner, Matthew Wolff, still got to 21-under-par.

Further changes were made prior to the 2020 edition. Fairways were narrowed on five holes, including the par five 18th, and bunkers on 10 holes were reworked but it made very little difference to the scoring.

The average sized Bentgrass greens have been set at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter for each of the first five renewals.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 19:00 UK time.

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First Five Winners with Exchange Prices

2019 - Matthew Wolff -21 220.0219/1
2020 - Michael Thompson -19 230.0229/1
2021 - Cameron Champ -15 120.0119/1
2022 - Tony Finau -17 13.012/1
2023 - Lee Hodges -24 100.099/1

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What Will it Take to Win the 3M Open?

We've only had five renewals so we probably shouldn't get too hung up on the stats, but it certainly looks like accurate approach play is the key to playing well here.

Looking at the traditional stats, the first five winners have ranked 36^th, 46^th, eighth and 16^th for Driving Distance and they've ranked 31^st, 22^nd, 49^th, sixth and 14^th Driving Accuracy. And they've ranked 21^st, 51^st, 40^th, third and 29^th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee so the 2022 winner, Tony Finau, is the only one of the five with a noteworthy tee game.

Neither the inaugural winner, Matthew Wolff, or Finau putted sensationally, but the two winners in-between did those two did and so too did Hodges 12 months ago.

Wolff ranked only 39^th for Strokes Gained Putting and sixth for Putting Average and Finau ranked 42^nd and 37^th but Michael Thompson ranked first for SGP and 20^th for PA, the 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, topped the rankings for both of those stats and Hodges ranked second and fourth.

It had been a similarly mixed bag for the stats around the green prior to last year's renewal. The three winners between 2020 and 2022 ranked second, sixth and first for Scrambling and Finau also ranked second for Strokes Gained Around the Green, but Wolff ranked 18^th for SG: ATG and Thompson and Champ only ranked 53^rd and 48^th.

Scrambling was a key stat again last year with the first six home all ranking inside the top-10 but the two key stats are Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach.

Finau ranked third for both Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained Approach, Wolff ranked sixth and second and Thompson ranked third and fourth for those two stats.

Champ only ranked 22^nd for GIR and 19^th SGA but Louis Oosthuizen, who finished tied for second, ranked first and second for those two stats, and Hodges ranked 14^th for GIR and first for SG: Approach.

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Is There an Angle In?

The Rocket Mortgage Classic appears to correlate very nicely.

A year after winning the inaugural edition of this event, beating Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by a stroke, Wolff finished runner-up to DeChambeau in the second edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and Morikawa, who hasn't played in this event since he finished tied second in 2019, was beaten in a three-man playoff in his first appearance in the Rocket Mortgage last year.

Rickie Fowler, who shot 64 here to lead after round one three years ago when not playing well (finished T32), beat Morikawa in extra time and the third man in the playoff was Adam Hadwin, who has form figures in this event reading 4-6-38-MC. He was also fourth in the RMC in 2020.

Max Homa, Cameron Tringale and Richy Werenski have contended strongly at both events, Brian Harman has finished inside the top ten at both venues, the 2022 runner-up here, Sungjae Im, and both Troy Merritt and Wyndham Clark, have top-eight finishes at both courses, Lucas Glover and Danny Willett have finished inside the top-seven at both tracks, and lesser lights Brian Stuard and Ryan Armour have finished inside the top-six at both venues.

Alex Noren, who has RMC form figures reading MC-4-9, finished third here in his sole appearance in 2020, and although he has missed his last two cuts at the RMC, last year's winner, Hodges, sat third at halfway on his debut in the event but Finau trumps them all, given he won both events back-to-back in 2022.

It looks a very strong correlation.

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Swerve the Open contenders and get with the Bubble Boys

Now that the majors are all done and dusted, the FedEx Cup Series is looming large and everyone's jockeying for position ahead of the opening event - the FedEx St Jude Championship - in less than a month's time. Only the top-70 on the Fed-Ex Cup standings make it to the event so anyone in and around that mark may well play better than they have for some time. Last year's winner, Hodges, sat 74^th in the Standings

Conversely, those that contended in last week's Open Championship at Troon could well be jaded and they might struggle to lift themselves for what's just a run of the mill event. Especially if they've already secured enough Fed-Ex Cup points to guarantee a place in the playoffs.

Justin Rose and Billy Horschel, who finished tied for second behind Schauffele, are both still in the field at the time of writing but whether they make the line-up must be debatable.

Finau won the 2022 edition after playing in the Open, but he was never in-contention - finished 28^th after making the cut on the number - and he'd had three weeks off before then, so he was nice and fresh.

For the fourth week in-a-row, if we disregard the Open and the Scottish Open, the PGA Tour is taking in a low scoring tournament on bentgrass greens so form at the aforementioned Rocket Mortgage and/or any of the last three events - the John Deere Classic, the ISCO Championship and the Barracuda Championship - is well worth consideration and I'd favour an outsider that's been creeping into form in the States over the last few weeks over one of the bigger names that's played in both the Scottish and the Open.

Finau went off favourite two years ago but Champ won at a big price in 2021 having finished 11^th in the John Deere Classic in his penultimate start and that's the sort of thing to be looking for.

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Great event for longshots

Hodges was a pick for the Find Me a 100 Column last year and the first three winners all went off at a triple-figure price so despite the 2022 result, overall it's been a good fabulous event for outsiders so far.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2019 - Matthew Wolff - tied for the lead 8.88/1
2020- Michael Thompson - tied for the lead 4.84/1
2021 - Cameron Champ - tied 4^th, trailing by two 17.016/1
2022 - Tony Finau - tied third, trailing by five 6.86/1
2023 - Lee Hodges - led by five 1.374/11

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In-Play Tactics

We witnessed all sorts of shenanigans at TPC Twin Cities in 2019, with three players trading at odds-on, and its testimony to Michael Thompson's ice-cool finish in 2020 that we didn't see far more drama in the second renewal.

At one stage there were 22 players within four of the lead and the eventual second, pre-event 1000.0999/1 shot, Adam Long, managed to tie for the lead when posting 17-under-par, having made the cut on the number, and having sat tied for 51st at halfway.

It was a similar story in 2019 when Wolff was able to win from off the pace. He trailed by seven in a tie for 49th after round one and he was eight adrift in a tie for 35th at halfway so we know it's possible to win from off the pace. Wolff went on to win by one after firing 62-65 over the weekend.

Champ was matched in-running at 700.0699/1 on Thursday in 2021 and he ended the first round five off the lead in a tie for 38^th. He was still four adrift at halfway (T19) and two off the lead with a round to go but he was the only man to trade at odds-on and he won comfortably by two.

Scott Piercy looked in control two years ago when he led by four with a round to go and he was matched at as low as 1.162/13 before he played the last six holes in five-over par to lose by four.

In contrast, Finau, who had trailed by five through 54 holes, birdied 14, 15 and 16 to put the tournament to bed before he bogeyed the par five finishing hole.

Hodges was a very impressive wire-to wire winner 12 months ago, leading by a stroke after round one, by four at halfway, and by five through 54 holes.

Although the first two winners were leading with a round to go, and Hodges obliterated the field from start to finish, it's clearly somewhere you can come with a late rattle, and it's already proved to be a great course for late drama and a fantastic event for trading on a Sunday.

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Finau the worthy favourite

With current form figures reading 18-17-8-3-5, the 2022 3M Open winner, Tony Finau, arrived at Troon as a lively candidate to win the Open Championship last week but a second round of 81 in the worst of the weather of Friday afternoon saw him miss the cut and he looks a great price here as a result.

After a level par 71 on Thursday morning, he parred his first four holes on Friday but after bogeys at the two par three on the front nine (five and eight), he lost a ball off the tee on nine and that was the end of that.

A triple-bogey seven went down on the card at the ninth and the only positive on a dismal day was his birdie at the 18^th.

I'm more than happy to dismiss last week and a much-improved performance here is expected.

With course form figures reading 23-3-28-1-7, Finau clearly loves the venue and although he only finished seventh last year, he traded at as short as 4.3100/30 when he started his defence by playing his first six holes in six-under-par.

His approach figures have been typically strong this year, but he's also been putting quite nicely too and he's a very worthy favourite.

Sam Burns sat tied for second with a round to go at Troon on Sunday but a dreadful 80 in round four saw him slump to a tie for 31^st and he makes no appeal this week.

This is Burns' first visit to TPC Twin Cities since he finished 32^nd in 2020, 12 months after finishing seventh on debut so he has a bit of course form but his approach figures have been poor this year and I'm more than happy to swerve him.

Having missed the cut at Troon, Akshay Bhatia makes more appeal than Burns but he has to overcome his recent defeat at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he traded at as low as 1.330/100 before missing his first putt inside six feet all week long on the 72^nd hole.

That second place in Detroit would suggest he'll take to this track on debut, but he looks short enough after last week. He was the right side of the draw in Scotland so his weekend off is less excusable than Finau's.

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Davis can go in again

In addition to backing Finau, I've also backed the man that pipped Bhatia at the post in Detroit - Cam Davis.

Despite ranking as high as 38^th in the Official World Rankings after his victory at the end of June, Davis was the first alternative last week at Troon but didn't get in.

He'd followed his victory in Detroit with a very respectable tied 26^th in the Scottish Open and he was desperately disappointed not to get in but this is the perfect place for him to gain compensation.

The two-time Rocket Mortgage Classic winner has course form figures here reading MC-12-28-16-10 and I was very surprised to see him drift all the way out to 50.049/1.

I'll be back later today with at least two selections for the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

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Now read my Open Championship De-Brief here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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