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66/167.00 Tony Finau has current and Open FRL form
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66/167.00 Late entrant Alex Noren can hit the ground running
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66/167.00 Wyndham Clark can strike early on the easy holes
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Golf Only Bettor - The Open Championship Preview
Weather forecast for Thursday
Welcome to the British summer. Typical of what we seem to have had so far, Thursday features constant light rain and temperatures starting in the mid-50s and peaking in the mid-60s from 1pm onwards.
As for those all-important wind speeds, they're projected between 8-12mph but gusts up to as much as 30mph could be possible at times.
Any sun? Don't be ridiculous.
First-round leader history
Eventual runner-up Phil Mickelson set the pace in the last Open at Troon in 2016, opening up with a 63 to end round one three clear of Martin Kaymer and Patrick Reed.
Six more Americans were in the eight-way tie for fourth: Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker and Justin Thomas.
Contrast that to 2004 when there were precisely zero Americans in the top 10 after 18 holes. Paul Casey and Thomas Levet shared the lead that year after 66s.
Looking at the last five Opens, five of the seven players with a piece of the lead teed off early and, overall, when looking further down the day one leaderboards, the majority set out in the morning.
Tony Finau looks to have a good starting slot at 9.25am and he has the ideal profile to make a big early impression.
First up, he's had a string of fast starts in recent months, finishing in the top six after the opening lap four times in his last five events.
That includes the two Majors. A 65 put him second after day one of the US PGA Championship while he was sixth after the first round of the US Open.
Also second after 18 holes at Colonial and sixth on the closing Thursday leaderboard at the Travelers, Finau boasts some strong FRL history in this event too.
Here at Troon on his Open debut in 2016 a 67 put him in fourth spot while he was second after day one at Carnoustie in 2018 and third through the first 18 holes at Royal Portrush in 2019.
He's thrown in rounds of 66 (day two at Royal St George's and day four at St Andrews) in two of the last three Opens so he's used to going low on the links.
Finau, who ranks 13th in Early R1 Scoring Average on the PGA Tour this season, looks a great bet at 66/167.00 (1/5 Odds, 6 Places) from his morning tee-time.
Someone who could make the early headlines is Alex Noren, who heads out in the second group at 6.46am.
Noren has three first-round leads in his last 45 worldwide starts. They came at the 2024 American Express, the 2023 Bermuda Championship (by the sea) and the 2022 Houston Open.
He also set the pace at another coastal course via a 64 at Torrey Pines in 2021.
If some of that seems a little old, more recently he was 12th after round one of the US PGA while last week he opened with a 65 for eighth place on the R1 leaderboard at the Scottish Open.
Even more importantly, he added a 65 in round four, that late burst at The Renaissance Club securing him a place in the Open field.
In Decemeber, I put up Noren at 150/1 ante-post so it was a case of 'phew' that he made it in.
But after a little wobble in form, his 10th place in Scotland suggests he's back to the mid-season levels of excellence that saw him reel off eight straight top 25s.
That run included ninth in the Cognizant Classic at PGA National where past Troon winners Justin Leonard, Todd Hamilton, Mark Calcavecchia and Tom Weiskopf have all won.
Noren has a solid body of work in Opens with five top 20s.
And as for quick starts, he's opened with 68s in three of his last five. That gave him first-round positions of 7th (Hoylake), 3rd (Royal Portrush) and 12th (Royal Birkdale).
The Swede, who is 8th in Early R1 Scoring Average this season, is also a good bet at 66s.
With Open weather prone to change, it's not the best idea to put all eggs in one basket so I'll have an afternoon starter too.
And here's the logic.
The first six holes at Royal Troon are where scores are made so, with everyone teeing off at the 1st (as is always the case in an Open), how about checking the PGA Tour's Front 9 Scoring Average charts.
Sat at No.2 behind Scottie Scheffler is Wyndham Clark so let's back last year's US Open winner to make hay on those early holes - something he's clear good at - from his 2.26pm tee-time.
Earlier this season, Clark shot a sensational 60 at Pebble Beach, the American Ryder Cup star going to the turn in just 28 swishes after two eagles and four birdies.
He kept it going on the back nine too and hopefully he can follow suit here: shoot the lights out at the start and then not be afraid to build his score further.
Ranked 2nd in Par Breakers this season, Clark was seventh after round one of last year's Open at Hoylake which is encouraging to find and he threw in another super-low round in last week's Scottish Open, closing with a 62 to make the top 10.
A first-round leader in elite company at The Players Championship earlier this season and third after round one in his 2023 US Open win, the clues are there for Clark to go low in the afternoon.
Back Wyndham Clark each-way
Read all our Open Championship tips and previews here.