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Sam Burns can rekindle his WGC winning form
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Tyrrell Hatton prefers this test to last week's
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JT Poston has great vibes for the tournament and test
We don't often associate the Pete Dye/Jack Nicklaus co-designed Harbour Town Golf Links with elevation.
The course, the long-time host of the RBC Heritage, is almost completely flat and at sea level (we know as much because the 18th hole plays right alongside it).
This year, however, it has become one of the PGA Tour's designated events which means it has metaphorically been elevated.
So, get this, last week the Masters Tournament prize pot was bumped up from $15 million (in 2022) to $18 million and yet this week they play for $20 million.
As a consequence, the entry list this week looks very different to a normal RBC Heritage.
It has always been popular with players keen on its Masters after show party vibe, but you'd really only get the odd elite-level performers and a few just below that quality.
That truth is revealed in the list of winners in the 21st century: six major winners are in there but only one (Jordan Spieth last year) is a multiple major winner.
In general, the winners here have been fellows whose skill set is suited by the course's need for caution from the tee, patience with small, grainy greens, and wiles in blustery conditions.
The big boys tend to be irked by such challenges, like super car drivers frustrated by winding, single-lane country roads.
Those big boys have either not shown up or have been picked off by the plotters - and punters have tended to enjoy being in on it as well.
Indeed, Dave Tindall - who I am filling-in for this week - picked the 2021 winner Stewart Cink for this very column at 125/1.
But now we might have an extra dimension to factor in: those big boys are out in force and, while a few might prefer to coast, most will have eyes on the prize (and the prize fund).
Can they adapt now they need to? Are the good times over for the specialists - the likes of Cink, Jim Furyk, Boo Weekley, Davis Love III, Matt Kuchar and Brian Gay? Guys who won here and who also always thrived at other tight tests by the sea with Bermuda greens.
Main Bet: Sam Burns 1pt each-way @ 40/1
Sam Burns was 40/1 last week at the Masters and I'm more than happy to get him at the same price seven days later.
He was knocked off track by the poor weather but before then he had put together his best effort yet in a major, sitting tied sixth after the first two rounds.
He was never really in contention beyond the first nine holes of his second round so I'll take him to be encouraged and also a bit (positively) irked rather than tired (physically or mentally) by the experience.
Moreover, this is a spot which he has hinted at liking in the past and which his best results suggest offers the chance of him contending at some point.
The hint came when he was ninth on debut in 2019, spending all week within four blows of the lead.
Meanwhile, he's a two-time Innisbrook winner, has made a play-off at TPC Southwind and landed top 10s at PGA National, Memorial Park, Congaree and Scottsdale - all of them feature either blustery wind, Bermuda grass, tight fairways or a combination of these factors.
He's also gone low at PGA West (featuring Dye and Nicklaus layouts), ditto at TPC Louisiana in the pairs event and he won the WGC Dell Match Play at Dye's Austin Country Club last month.
On the fringes of the elite, this is a fine opportunity for another step in that direction.
Next Best: Tyrrell Hatton 1pt each-way @ 40/1
Tyrrell Hatton is no fan of Augusta National.
While the golfing world coos and sighs over it, like parents taking their kids to the Louvre or the Sistine Chapel on a European vacation, Hatton is more like the stroppy teenager who just does not want to be wasting his time looking at stupid pictures.
His T34th last week was actually his second-best effort in seven visits and relatively drama-free. He turned up, did what he had to, and didn't get sent to his hotel bedroom.
This week is much more his thing.
He's made four of five cuts at Harbour Town, was five shots back with 18 holes to play on debut, the co-leader after 54-holes in 2020, carded two 66s in 2021 and two 67s last year.
He was also second at Dye's TPC Sawgrass last month and has recently been sixth at Scottsdale, second and T13th at Congaree and eighth at Sedgefield, all decent pointers for this week's test.
Final Bet: JT Poston 1pt each-way @ 80/1
I can't overlook the case of JT Poston because pretty much every way I look at him I'm thrilled he can be backed at this price.
Course form? He plays Harbour Town wonderfully, finishing sixth on debut in 2019 and eighth a year later.
True, he missed the cut in 2021 but after opening with a 74 he did nearly retrieve the situation with a round two 68.
Last year he right the ship with a share of third.
Form? He was T10th at the Valspar Championship, made the last 16 in the WGC Dell Match Play and recorded T34th last week at Augusta, his best finish in a major.
Pete Dye form? In addition to his fine course form has second at TPC River Highlands last summer, sixth in the Amex at year's beginning and the Match Play effort was at Austin.
Then there is the Sedgefield Connection, which sounds like an avant garde 1970s rock band, but relates to the Wyndham Championship played at Sedgefield.
Four golfers have won there and at Harbour Town - and Poston is among the number who has won at one (in his case Sedgefield) and thrived at the other.
He can maintain his form and even contend to become double winner number five.
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