The PGA Tour stays heads to California this week and Dave Tindall is back with three each-way selections all available at chunky prices on the Betfair Sportsbook...
"With a second (Pebble) and a third (Safeway Open) in two of his last three starts in California, he'll be relishing another trip to the west coast."
Main Bet: Kevin Streelman each-way @ 100/1
Tiger Woods caused something of a surprise when scoring a wire-to-wire victory in last year's ZOZO Championship.
He'd been out of action for a while and clicking straight into gear on a new course in Japan didn't seem one of the obvious storylines that week.
By contrast, in terms of course history, it would be no surprise to see Tiger contest this year.
The COVID-19 pandemic means the tournament switches back to Woods' native California. And, not only that, it takes place at Sherwood Country Club where he won his own Hero World Challenge no less than five times between 2001 and 2011.
Yes, that was a small 16-man field but it was an elite one. Tiger had other duties too and yet was able to show his best on the Jack Nicklaus design.
Others who lifted the trophy during the tournament's time there (2000-2013) included Davis Love (twice), Graeme McDowell (twice), Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson and Vijay Singh.
There's a surprising number of short hitters in that bunch but it makes sense. This course - where the Dukes of Hazzard used to be filmed before Nicklaus got to work - is just 7,098 yards long.
As a collective, those above names conjure up other winner's rollcalls.
To start with, let's try another California course - Pebble Beach.
Tiger and G-Mac won US Opens there, Love won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am twice, Singh won it once and was runner-up three times while Furyk had plenty of good finishes and has just won a Champions Tour event there.
Love's name also takes us to Harbour Town where he won five times. Poor old Donald was runner-up five times. Furyk and McDowell both won there while Zach Johnson has a second.
The link? Shot shaping. This is what Rory McIlroy said of Sherwood CC on Monday when asked to explain Woods' repeated success there: "I think if I've learned anything over the years from Tiger, it's how visual he is and how he likes to shape shots. I think Sherwood, all the holes are framed so nicely and you can see shots there so easily. I can see how Tiger's done so well there."
And because Sherwood CC is a Nicklaus design, Muirfield Village is another place to search. Tiger has five wins there while Furyk and Singh have also tasted victory. Zach J is a past runner-up.
Some of the obvious names will pop up when doing some cross-checking but there's also a 100/1 shot - Kevin Streelman.
Streelman has three top eights and a further three top 20s in his last seven starts at Muirfield Village while these are his five finishes at Pebble since 2016: 17-14-6-7-2.
Hilton Head? Yep. Third in 2013 and top sevens in both 2018 and 2019.
With a second (Pebble) and a third (Safeway Open) in two of his last three starts in California, he'll be relishing another trip to the west coast.
He played both Vegas events, somehow missing the cut despite 69-67 in the Shriners but improving to tied 21st at last week's CJ Cup.
That's kept him under the radar and hopefully he can have a big week here at a generous 100/1.
Next Best: Cameron Champ each-way @ 100/1
You won't find all those lovely course correlations when spinning through Cameron Champ's record but he does score well in other areas.
Nicklaus is famous for designing second-shot courses and that helps explain the list of past winners at Sherwood.
So how about a player with some strong recent Strokes Gained: Approach figures who can excel between the California trees.
Champ showed just that when winning the 2019 Safeway Open at Silverado Country Club.
The monster-hitting 25-year-old is a Californian native and again showed his liking for a home game with tied 10th in the recent US PGA Championship at Harding Park where he made a genuine title title challenge.
He's had a dip since but I liked his SG: Approach numbers at last week's CJ Cup; he ranked fifth (5.482) so that was a big turnaround.
While T42 at Shadow Creek last week wasn't anything special, he did close with a 68 and that could easily have been in the mid-60s but for a 6-3-5 finish. He'd played the same three holes in four strokes fewer the day before.
There's no more rocket science beyond pointing out that 100/1 is a big price for a huge talent with a strong record in his home state. And remember that Champ has to take on just 77 rivals.
Final Bet: Paul Casey each-way @ 66/1
There aren't too many in the field with course form given that it's been seven years since the last of Tiger's events at Sherwood.
But Paul Casey has some and it's notable too; on his last two visits (2010 and 2011) he finished in third. That adds to a fifth on debut.
I may be throwing good money after bad given how poor he was in Vegas last week.
Then again, making triple at his very first hole suggested the cards were stacked against him from the start and, after a third-round 67, he was also set to shoot under par in Sunday's closer before a 5-6-5-6 finish (5-over).
In other words, it was made to look an even bigger mess.
Casey did gain 5.644 strokes Tee-To-Green and 2.678 on Approach in round three so there was some good stuff in there and, at 66s, I'll give him another chance.
Looking at other plus points, Casey was a runner-up at Pebble Beach last year while he also took second place on his latest start in California when putting in a superb performance and going close to a first major in the US PGA at Harding Park.
On that form and his tied 17th in the US Open, he looks a bet at these odds and hopefully the good memories of Sherwood CC will come flooding back when he tees it up there again.
The man who beat him at the US PGA, Collin Morikawa, would be my best bet at the front of the market.
A tied 12th at the CJ Cup last week was a nice return to form (3rd SG: Approach).
As for Tiger Woods, a 28/1 chance, his five starts since golf returned are an underwhelming quintet of 40-37-58-51-MC.
When he won this tournament in Japan last year, it was only seven starts on from his Masters win so his game was in better shape.
And finally, mention has to be made of 28/1 Matthew Wolff, who grew up seven miles away. "I've played that course 1,000 times," he said when recalling going to watch the event in 2013.
He's similar to Casey in that he produced a bizarre performance last week (80-73-69-77). Overlook that and he'd been in great form but I'll go for the bigger-priced option.
Dave's 2020/2021 P/L
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89