Find Me a 100 Winner: Hot Herbert value to emulate Todd

Golfer Stephan Jaeger
Stephan Jaegar in action in Bermuda

Outsiders have a very solid record in both this week's events - the Portugal Masters and the World Wide Technology Championship - so our man has suggestions for both at juicy odds here...

"I’m amazed Lucas Herbert was allowed to drift all the way out to 180.0179/1. That’s more than 100 points bigger than he went off at last week!"

I liked a trio of Spaniards in the Portugal Masters but the one I liked best has been backed into double figures. Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez was 125/1 with the Sportsbook on Monday and the 100/1 didn't last long either.

Garcia Rodriguez was fifth last time out at the Mallorca Golf Open, sixth on debut in this event last year and he sits 121st on the Race to Dubai so he needs a good week to secure his playing privileges for next season. With current and course form and a huge incentive to perform well, I'm not in the least bit surprised to see he's shortened up.

The 2008 winner, Alvaro Quiros, is trading at around 100.099/1 and he's been catching the eye of late but the only one I'm putting up in this event is fellow Spaniard, Pep Angles, who like Garcia Rodriguez, needs a solid week to save his card.

Hot-putting Pep can shine in Portugal

Angles did little wrong in the Mallorca Golf Open, where he finished second, thanks to a great week with the putter, and he was 12th here on his last visit in 2018 (missed the cut in 2017).

As highlighted in the preview, links form and form at Doha crosses over well at Dom Pedro so although he's badly out of form, at odds in excess of 500.0499/1, England's Chris Wood is an interesting runner. He's an excellent links player, he won the first of his three European Tour events at Doha (Qatar Masters), and he was second here back in 2015.

Back 1.5 u Pep Angles @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Hot Herbert value to emulate Todd

As highlighted in the preview, last week's event, the Bermuda Championship correlates very strongly with the World Wide Technology Championship.

Brendon Todd won this event in 2019, two weeks after winning in Bermuda (had the week off in-between), and it wouldn't be a huge shock if Sunday's winner, Lucas Herbert, emulated him.

The 25-year-old Aussie has now won three of his last 32 starts so he's fairly prolific and it was impossible not to be impressed by the way he closed out in Bermuda.

Herbert finished only 27th in his next start after he'd won the Dubai Desert Classic last year but he has a habit of stringing two, three or four high finishes together and he finished fourth at the Scottish Open in July, a week after winning the Irish Open.

Lucas Herbert wins in Bermuda.jpg

Winning back-to-back events is fairly uncommon but given how well the two courses correlate and that Herbert has a history of remaining hot, I'm amazed he was allowed to drift all the way out to 180.0179/1. That's more than a 100 points bigger than he went off at last week!

Back 2 u Lucas Herbert @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

In-form Jaeger can top off stellar year with PGA Tour win

Although I didn't mention it in the preview, the now defunct Korn Ferry Tour event, the Ellie Mae Classic, has been a decent guide to this event.

The first and second at the Ellie Mae Classic in 2016, Martin Piller and Brandon Harkins, both contended here four years ago when huge outsiders, as did the 2015 EMC winner, Si Woo Kim, and given there are very strong and established links between this event and both the Sony and the Puerto Rico Opens, the 2014 result, which saw Tony Finau beat Fabián Gómez, sticks out like a sore thumb too.

El Camaleón specialist, Russel Knox, who's a popular pick again this time around, was runner-up at the Ellie Mae Classic ten years ago, four years before he finished second here.

In-form German, Stephan Jaeger, won the Ellie Mae Classic in 2016 by a whopping seven strokes in an event record 30-under-par total, after firing a 12-under-par 58 in the opening round.

On his two previous visits to El Camaleón, Jaeger missed the cut on debut in 2017 after a disastrous first round but he finished 16th a year later after sitting tied for fourth and just one off the lead after round one. Since winning the Ellie Mae Classic, Jaeger has won a further five times on the Korn Ferry Tour and he's been red-hot there this year, finishing runner-up three times since winning the Emerald Coast Classic in April.

All told, he's had eight top-five finishes since March and his top-20 finish in Bermuda last week looks like a perfect warm-up.

Back 1.5 u Stephan Jaeger @ 190.0189/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Last week's wagers worth another chance

I'm not going to put any of them up as official bets as I wouldn't know which one to plump for and six selections is overkill but I've thrown a few pounds at all three of last week's selections - Graeme McDowell, JJ Spaun and Brian Gay.

Of the three, Spaun, who finished tied for seventh in Bermuda, despite being drawn on the wrong side of the draw, is the only one not to have previously won this event but he was third three years ago and if last week's stats are anything to go by (sixth for Greens In Regulation and first for Scrambling) he could go close again.

G-Mac fell away a bit after putting himself in-contention after ten holes in round three (matched at a low of 14.5) last week but he still finished 12th and I've no idea why I've been able to back Gay at in excess of 400.0399/1.

The 2008 winner of this event put up a quite brilliant defence last week in Bermuda, where he ranked second for Putting Average. Like Spaun, he too had to play in the worst of the weather on day one but he followed his opening 75 with rounds of 67, 64 and 68 to finish alongside G-Mac and he'll be raring to go on another track that clearly suits him.

And finally, although he doesn't have any course form, Scott Stallings might be one to keep an eye on this week. His 62 in round four in the worst of the Bermuda breeze on Sunday was a simply incredible round and arguably the best he's ever shot.

I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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