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WGC Dell Technologies Match Play: 66/1 Kirk can make his mark

Dave Tindall
21 March 2023
4:00 min read

Chris Kirk can go deep

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The PGA Tour heads to Texas for the annual match play showdown and Chris Kirk can thrive at Austin Country Club, says Dave Tindall...

8 each-way places gives scope to play the bigger prices
66/1 Chris Kirk won in Florida and has form here
100/1 Ryan Fox has a winnable group and good form
66/1 Sahith Theegala can also top a suspect group

Main Bet: Chris Kirk each-way @ 66/1

This should be a minefield for punters and tipsters but for whatever reason it's been a good tournament for me with 70/1 Billy Horschel hitting the jackpot in 2021 and 50/1 Kevin Kisner landing the each-way cash when reaching the final last year.

There wasn't any clever formula: just the tried and trusted method of good form in other Texas events and some strong recent play in Florida.

Austin Country Club has hosted six editions of this event now so we're pretty familiar with the short Pete Dye design which measures just over 7,000 yards.

Six editions equates to 48 players making the quarter-finals so let's look at the pre-tournament seedings of that bunch. Does the cream rise to the top?

1-16 - 15 players (31%)
17-32 - 13 players (27%)
33-48 - 11 players (23%)
49-64 - 9 players (19%)

The top bracket just about comes out on top but history says there's plenty of justification to look lower down the seedings to find a player who could make the last eight.

And, with eight payout places on offer with Betfair, getting to the quarter-finals secures the each-way cash. It's a nice feeling to have rather than fretting if a selection will go on to make the semis.

Last year's final was the fourth straight all-American encounter as 5th seed Scottie Scheffler, the runner-up 12 months earlier, saw off 2019 champion Kevin Kisner, the 29th seed.

Given their strong record of making the quarter-finals, I'm going to pick three players from Pool B (seeds 17 to 32) and will start with 66/1 Chris Kirk.

The 28th seed immediately fits the bill as someone who took the eye in Florida whilst having a good bank of Texas form too.

Kirk's big moment on the Florida Swing came at the Honda Classic where he took victory in a play-off to end an eight-year drought on the PGA Tour.

He's taken a predictable step back since after teeing it up in the next two tournaments (39th Arnold Palmer, MC Players) but after skipping the Valspar, I'm hoping he's been able to digest his achievement and a re-set has taken place.

Kirk has two top eights in the Texas Open and made the top 15 at Colonial on his most recent visit to the Lone Star State.

Back Chris Kirk each-way @

66/1

And then there's his record here. Okay, he hasn't made the field for the last six editions but on his only start in 2016, Kirk won his group and made it to the quarter-finals only to be put away by Rory McIlroy.

A repeat of that last eight run will secure a nice profit here and his first task is to win Group 8 which includes Viktor Hovland, Si Woo Kim and Matt Kuchar.

Hovland (8), who was the third seed last year, has yet to make it to the knockout section in two visits, Kim (40) has fallen at the group stage in all five attempts and Kuchar (57), despite having a fine record here, didn't make a cut on the Florida Swing.

Kirk can be the low-key Kevin Kisner-type figure who sees them off and sneaks his way through.

Next Best: Ryan Fox each-way @ 100/1

Next up, I'm going to take a punt on New Zealand's Ryan Fox at a three-figure price.

The Kiwi's first DP World Tour victory came at the 2019 ISPS Handa World Super 6 Perth which had match play as part of its format.

All the head-to-heads in the knockout phase were played over just six holes and Fox was last man standing as he took down Adrian Otaegui in the final.

Fox was World No.85 at the time but he arrives in Texas - helped admittedly by some of the LIV defectors dropping like stones - at 34th in the rankings.

After a superb season on the DP World Tour in 2022, Fox has been trying his luck on the PGA Tour in recent weeks and he looked forward to it in an interview with National Club Golfer back in November.

"It's going to be a cool year," said Fox. "I've got everything to gain and nothing to lose. I can get some experience playing the tournaments that I grew up watching like Bay Hill and The Players."

Fast forward and Fox wasn't just happy to be there for those elite-field Florida events, he played some excellent golf too. The 36-year-old closed with a 67 to take tied 14th at Bay Hill and followed that with tied 27th at the Players.

Back Ryan Fox each-way @

100/1

I'm not sure he can win this but that's the appeal of eight each-way places: if Fox wins the group and his last 16 match, he's in the money before all the nerves and realisation of what's on the table kicks in.

Fox is in Group 7 with Will Zalatoris (7), Harris English (39) and Andrew Putnam (58) and it looks a winnable one.

Zalatoris finished behind Fox at both Bay Hill and Sawgrass while English is massively inconsistent right now after a run of MC-MC-MC-12-MC-2-MC.

Putnam has missed four of his last five cuts and, along with English, didn't make it out of the group in his one start at Austin CC.

I have a sneaky feeling Fox will like this quirky track so the 100/1 is well worth a punt.

Final Bet: Sahith Theegala each-way @ 66/1

Like Fox, Sahith Theegala is making his debut in the event but, again, that doesn't put me off.

The American has the type of vibrant personality to go far in an tournament like this and it's easy to imagine him being one of the real crowd favourites.

He's already given the galleries plenty to cheer this season with fourth at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and sixth in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.

And he battled away well to make the top 15 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A poor finish at Sawgrass shouldn't concern us and, to be fair, he did play all four rounds there.

In Texas, he's made his last five cuts and was 22nd in November's Houston Open thanks to a Sunday 64.

Back Sahith Theegala each-way @

66/1

Seeded 22nd, he's in Group 11 with Matt Fitzpatrick (11), Min Woo Lee (43) and JJ Spaun (54) and, again, it doesn't look the most daunting.

Fitzpatrick has never got to the knockout phase here in six attempts and missed the cut at both The Players and the Valspar.

Spaun looks out of sorts after four weekends off in the last five so that leaves Lee as possibly Theegala's biggest rival.

It could come down to their game but Lee managed just one win in three matches on his Austin debut last year and just maybe there'll be a hangover after a closing 76 at The Players when he was in title contention.

Lee is a superb player but as well as the Sunday Sawgrass wobble, he didn't make the cut at Bay Hill and has a poor record in Texas.

Recommended bets

Back Chris Kirk each-way @ 28/1

Back Ryan Fox each-way @ 80/1

Back Sahith Theegala each-way @ 100/1

Staked: £660
Returned: £316.5
P/L: -£343.5

Previous:
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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WGC Dell Technologies Match Play: 66/1 Kirk can make his mark

8 each-way places gives scope to play the bigger prices

66/1 Chris Kirk won in Florida and has form here

100/1 Ryan Fox has a winnable group and good form

66/1 Sahith Theegala can also top a suspect group

Main Bet: Chris Kirk each-way @ 66/1

Next Best: Ryan Fox each-way @ 100/1

Final Bet: Sahith Theegala each-way @ 66/1

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8 each-way places gives scope to play the bigger prices

66/1 Chris Kirk won in Florida and has form here

66/1 Sahith Theegala can also top a suspect group

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