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Wells Fargo Championship Each-Way Tips: Woodland can get the win

Dave Tindall
03 May 2022
4:00 min read

Gary Woodland is Dave's headline pick at 28/1

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The PGA Tour heads to Maryland and Dave Tindall is here with three each-way tips for the action at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm...

"The 2019 US Open champion has shown plenty of good form over the last few months and it's been fuelled by strong Tee-To-Green stats."
Back Gary Woodland each-way @ 29.028/1

Main Bet: Gary Woodland each-way @ 29.028/1

With Quail Hollow being prepped for September's Presidents Cup, TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm steps in as host

The former Sega Megadrive favourite - 'Craig Stadler has eagled the 10th', 'Brandel Chamblee has birdied the 7th' - has been used recently on the PGA Tour though, staging the Quicken Loans National in both 2017 and 2018.

Those tournaments were held in late June so temperatures will be a little lower and perhaps the wind a little higher for this early-May event.

TPC Potomac at Avenel is a par 70 measuring 7,160 yards and the Quicken Loans was won with just 7-under by Kyle Stanley (after a playoff) in 2017.

Francesco Molinari had a very different winning total 12 months later when shooting 21-under but note that he did triumph by eight shots.

With the par 5s measuring 641 and 591 yards, this is far from an easy test.

On the stats, the first three home in 2018 (Molinari, Ryan Armour and Sung Kang) ranked 1st, 4th and 2nd respectively for Strokes Gained: Approach while Stanley (4th for SG: Approach) was only 66th in SG: Putting when he won.

Both winners were 1st for SG: Tee To Green while, overall, it seems that prowess on the Bentgrass greens is far from the main skill required.

Let's get to it then and for my first pick I'll put up Gary Woodland at 28/1.

The 2019 US Open champion has shown plenty of good form over the last few months and it's been fuelled by strong Tee-To-Green stats.

Woodland had back-to-back top fives on the Florida Swing when fifth at both The Honda Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

He's since added 21st at the Valspar, eighth at the Texas Open and, after a poor Masters, tied 24th in last week's Mexico Open.

Looking at his numbers he ranked 2nd for Green In Regulation last week and 6th SG: Tee To Green, picking up 9.236 strokes on the field.

Outside of the Masters he's finished in the top 13 for TTG in his latest three events.

Woodland played here in 2018 and although 53rd doesn't look much he shot a trio of 69s. In addition he arrived having missed six of his previous 11 cuts so was looking for his game again after an early-season win in Phoenix.

History says he's one to look at when par means something and all three of his regular strokeplay wins have come on non par-72s so don't think he needs four par 5s to show his best.

A good wind player, hopefully he can make a big push for victory.

Next Best: Anirban Lahiri each-way @ 67.066/1

For my second pick, I'm going to keep faith with a player I selected at last week's Mexico Open.

Anirban Lahiri didn't quite do enough to land the each-way money at Vallarta but he wasn't far off after finishing tied 15th.

That result added to tied 13th in the Texas Open and second place at The Players Championship so that's three top 15s in his last four starts.

He's been in the top 25 for Greens In Regulation in all those tournaments while he picked up 3.172 strokes on the field Tee To Green in a final-round 66 in Mexico.

On current form, he's worth a play at odds of 66/1 but we actually have some course form too.

Lahiri teed it up here for the only time in 2018 and finished tied 13th. He was left to rue a Friday 74 as his other three rounds were excellent: 67s on days one and four and a Saturday 65.

That top 15 here came when he was in good form (tied ninth at the previous week's Travelers Championship) so the signs look strong for another eyecatching display.

One final note. As mentioned, Quail Hollow, the usual host of this event, is being readied for the Presidents Cup so that could come into Lahiri's thoughts this week.

As it stands, he's 12th in the standings (the top eight qualify automatically) so needs a push to make Trevor Immelman's team.

Lahiri became the first Indian to play in the Presidents Cup in 2015 and again took part in 2017. After a five-year gap, he'll have extra incentive to get back on the team.

Final Bet: Branden Grace each-way @ 81.080/1

At the top of the market, defending champion Rory McIlroy is the clear favourite at 15/2.

This will be his first start since finishing runner-up at Augusta and glossing over a short-priced favourite can be costly as shown by Jon Rahm last week.

However, he'll be defending on a different course so I can let him go.

This could be an ideal test for Tony Finau - bentgrass greens, emphasis on long game - although 20s is giving him full credit for his back-to-form second place in Mexico.

I also have a crazy thought for Scott Gutschewski at 500/1.

He ranks sixth for Approaches from 175-200 yards (there are more here than usual from that distance) this season and a tied 18th in the Texas Open was promising.

But I'll return to the idea of Presidents Cup chat being in the air this week and pick Branden Grace at 80/1.

The South African has been a stalwart of the International team down the years, playing in 2013, 2015 and 2017 but not making the team for the last one at Royal Melbourne in 2019.

With compatriot Immelman captaining, he could well have a chance of a wildcard but in these sort of situations a player is extra keen to qualify automatically to avoid those whispers of being treated favourably.

Grace has two PGA Tour wins, and a strong record in the Majors (six top sevens) shows he can perform well on tough tracks.

He's not qualified for the US PGA Championship later this month so clearly all is not rosey in Grace's garden.

Yes, his current form stats are littered with missed cuts but the last two suggest things are turning.

Grace shot 68-69 on the weekend to finish tied 35th at the RBC Heritage, ranking 2nd for Greens In Regulation, 5th for Approach and 15th Tee To Green.

And then he teamed up with Garrick Higgo to finish fourth at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

We don't have stats for that one but Grace said: "We played great. We've both been playing I want to say better than what the scores have been the last few months."

Any strong winds won't hurt him and I like the idea that he often lays down a marker before playing really well.

Last February he telegraphed his win in Puerto Rico with a top 20 at Riviera and his seventh in the 2021 US Open came on the back of a top four at Memorial.

Also, his win in the 2020 South African Open followed on from a third place on his previous start.