Wells Fargo Championship Each-Way Tips: Webb can win at Quail Hollow

American Webb Simpson
Local man Webb Simpson can take victory

The PGA Tour heads to North Carolina and Dave Tindall has three each-way selections for the Wells Fargo Championship...

Main Bet: Webb Simpson each-way @ 23.022/1

Winning this tournament has been on Webb Simpson's bucket list for an awful long time.

He's a member at Quail Hollow, lives just a mile away and appreciates the short hop more than most due to his anxiety about flying.

So far, Simpson has been runner-up in 2015 and fourth in 2012 after being the 54-hole leader. He's posted T21 and T18 in the last two editions.

"Even if this place wasn't my home I would still have this as one of my top courses of the year that we play," he said a few years ago.

Simpson admits he used to feel extra pressure here but soon got over it. "I think I did the first couple of years. I missed the cut my first two years and then I played well in 2012.

"I kind of learned to just enjoy it, not put too much pressure on myself. Try to go about the week as normal. There's a lot of distractions but my wife, she handles all the tickets, all the food, all the traffic through our house. I don't do much. She makes it easy for me.

"I think I've kind of adjusted to what it's like and the Greensboro tournament is real similar feel. Try to enjoy it more and go have some fun and see what happens."

The Greensboro tournament he refers to is the Wyndham Championship - a place where he has a win and numerous top fives. In other words, there's absolutely no doubt that he can rise to the occasion in front of his home North Carolina people.

What he does want each time he plays here is to arrive in decent nick. And that's the case.

After a solid tied 12th at Augusta National, the former US Open winner finished tied ninth when defending his title at The Heritage - another event in the Carolinas of course.

Looking at the stats, putting has been a key skill at Quail Hollow. Max Homa ranked 1st for SG: Putting when winning the most recent edition in 2019 while 2018 champ Jason Day was 2nd for SGP.

In addition, Justin Thomas was 4th for SG: Putting when winning the 2017 PGA Championship held here.

Par 4 Scoring is another key. Four of the last six winners ranked 1st on the Par 4s while the other two of that half-dozen were 4th and 5th.

Simpson is 18th on the season-long SG: Putting stats and also 18th for Par 4 Scoring.

Given all those credentials it would be easy to see him around the 16/1-18/1 mark so I'm happy enough to take the local man at 22s.

Next Best: Joaquin Niemann @ 36.035/1

If there's one thing that might hurt Simpson here it's a lack of length although his average biff off the tee is still 292.7 yards.

However, one man who doesn't have that perceived disadvantage is Joaquin Niemann.

The Chilean is 8th for Driving Distance this season and, while we're looking at stats, he's 27th for SG: Putting and 37th for Par 4 Scoring.

Since December, his worst result is a tied 43rd at Riviera. That run includes a pair of second places in the two Hawaii events (Tournament of Champions and Sony Open) and he heads to North Carolina on the back of tied eighth in the Valspar Championship in Florida.

Niemann gained over 5.6 strokes on the field with his putter at Innisbrook so hopefully he can do as well on the Bermuda greens of Quail Hollow.

This will be his third start at Quail Hollow and he played the final 54 holes of the most recent running (2019) in 6-under. For context, those who finished tied eighth that year posted 7-under.

Speaking on debut in 2018 he said of Quail Hollow: "I like tree-lined courses, like San Antonio was really, really tight, and because I like to hit like my low drivers and I feel really confident with that. Yeah, I mean this course is really long. I've got to hit it long, big drivers."

The namecheck of San Antonio is quite interesting as there are several players with wins at both (Vijay Singh, Anthony Kim and J.B. Holmes) and generally it correlates very well.

Niemann was World No. 148 when T38 here in 2019; he returns as No. 30 with a PGA Tour win already under his belt.

Having shown some promise at Quail Hollow two years ago (it was his second best finish of 2019 at the time), Niemann can do dome damage this time.

Take this most consistent of performers at 35/1.

Final Bet: Stewart Cink each-way @ 56.055/1

It may look like like an act of extreme bias but I simply can't get away from Stewart Cink when looking at those over 50/1.

Cink wins Heritage.jpg

Yes, he's temporarily my favourite golfer on the planet having landed a wire-to-wire 125/1 win for this column at Hilton Head but that's only one reason to think he can outperform his odds again.

Cink has an excellent record at Quail Hollow down the years. Keep going back and you'll find him with seven finishes of tied 26th or better in his last 10 appearances.

There's a fifth, an eighth and a ninth in there although he's only played here once since tied 20th in 2015.

But Cink 2.0 has all the attributes to put in another big performance.

Having watched him outdrive Viktor Hovland on plenty of holes at Augusta, it's not a surprise to see Cink ranked 27th for Driving Distance.

The 47-year-old is 1st for Greens In Regulation and has picked up over 20 strokes tee-to-green in his last two measured events (Hilton Head and Honda).

With son Reagan on the bag, the deadly duo already have two wins this season.

Talking after his Heritage victory and acknowledging his new length off the tee, Cink Sr. said: "I feel like I'm in a good spot, and my team has been great. But I was able to really kind of change my golf game into a little bit more of a power game, and immediately it busted right now in Napa with a win there.

"Since then, I've had a few lulls, but when I'm playing well, I feel like I'm playing well enough to win at any time. So that's been a big change for the last, what, eight months or so."

Confidence + current form + course form suggests he can given us another return at 55/1.

At the front end of the market, 10/1 Justin Thomas obviously has very positive memories at Quail Hollow having won a major here but I was closer to backing Bryson DeChambeau at 14s.

BDC was fourth here on his last appearance in 2018 and will be able to take some lines off the tee that others can't.

Two-time Quail Hollow winner Rory McIlroy? It would be daft to rule him out despite a missed cut at Augusta confirming his game was out of whack. Rory at 16s will surely appeal to his loyal backers.

Hovland is another I like at 20s but I'm happy to go with Simpson, Niemann and Cink.

Dave's 2020/2021 P/L

Staked: £870.00
Returned: £1812.12
P/L: +£942.12

2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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