Golf Bets

Wells Fargo Championship Each-way Tips: Picks from 28/1 to 110/1

Japanese golfer Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama is Dave's headline pick

The PGA Tour heads to North Carolina and Dave Tindall has three each-way bets for Quail Hollow...

  • 28/129.00 Hideki Matsuyama can pick up pre-Masters form

  • 28/129.00 Sahith Theegala continues to flourish

  • 110/1111.00 Cameron Davis looks a value outsider


The good and the great of the PGA Tour all gather again this week, with the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in North Carolina given Signature Event status.

Well, not quite all. World No.1 Scottie Scheffler is awaiting/celebrating (depending when you read this) the birth of his first baby while Ludvig Aberg is a WD, deciding to rest a sore knee ahead of next week's US PGA Championship at Valhalla.

That leaves a field of 69 and a clear 13/27.50 favourite in Rory McIlroy, a three-time champion on this course and a winner last time out after joining forces with fellow Irishman Shane Lowry to land the Zurich Classic pairs event.

Once again in a Signature Event there is no cut so everyone has four cracks at the tree-lined par 71 which has been stretched to 7,558 yards.

Recent rains suggest the course could play a little softer (good news for McIlroy surely) while the previous Champion Bermuda greens have been replaced by quick-running overseeded TifEagle Bermuda.

Past history says Strokes Gained: Approach is important - isn't it always - while Strokes Gained: Off The Tee is also key, with Driving Distance trumping Driving Accuracy.


Back Hideki Matsuyama @ 28/129.00

There was a flood of money for Hideki Matsuyama at the US Masters last month but the former Augusta winner never got in the race at all.

Kyboshed by an opening 76, he only just survived the cut and then made limited progress on the weekend to finish 39th.

I wonder if that could be a case of personal and outside expectations catching up with him. With no such focus on him here, the Japanese star should be free to pick up the excellent form that caused his Masters price crash in the first place.

That came via a superb win in the Genesis Invitational followed by 12th at Bay Hill, sixth at The Players and seventh in the Texas Open.

Matsuyama was in the top 20 for both SG: Approach and SG: Off The Tee in all four of those events while to show his all-around prowess, he's also ranked 1st for Around The Green twice this season (Phoenix and Farmers Insurance).

Third in SG: Putting at Riviera and also returning positive figures for SGP at Augusta, Matsuyama can boast good Quail Hollow form too.

He was fifth here when it held the 2017 PGA Championship (also played as a par 71), his backers that week no doubt recalling that he was the halfway leader and also second after 54 holes before the pressure of trying to become Japan's first male major winner caught up with him.

Prior to that he'd finished 11th and 20th in the Wells Fargo so there's plenty to suggest he can thrive when returning to the course for the first time since 2019.

Riviera tallies particularly well with Quail Hollow in terms of course correlation so Matsuyama's win there in February must bode well.

His usual injury niggles are a slight concern but we're getting 28/129.00 on an absolute in-form thoroughbred and he makes definite appeal in a Scheffler-less field and no Aberg too.

Back Hideki Matsuyama each-way @ 28/129.00

Bet here

Back Sahith Theegala @ 28/129.00

This event has been a good predictor of future major winners, with Brian Harman and Wyndham Clark taking the title here before going on to claim the Open and US Open respectively.

Other Wells Fargo champions have contended heavily in majors so it's worth looking at rising stars with the potential to land the very biggest events.

Two that spring to mind are Sahith Theegala and Cam Young and I'll give my vote to the former given that he's the one with a PGA Tour trophy in his cabinet.

Theegala had his start here 12 months ago and made a bright beginning, a 67 putting him seventh after day one before he faded into mid-pack.

But since then he's become a PGA Tour winner by landing September's Fortinet Championship and, crucially for the test in front of him this week, seems to have completely turned his driving around.

Once a weakness, Theegala now sits 21st in SG: Off The Tee this season, that vast improvement helping him rank 4th overall for SG: Total.

The 26-year-old opened his season with second place in The Sentry, a result he repeated in the RBC Heritage two starts ago.

Between those near misses he's posted fifth in Phoenix, sixth at Bay Hill and ninth at Sawgrass. In short, Theegala is becoming a big player in big events.

What's also striking is his record on TifEagle Bermuda greens.

Ignoring the Zurich Classic pairs event, the last six times Theegala has encountered TifEagle he's finished 2nd, 9th, 6th, 5th, 2nd, 5th.

Okay, these are overseeded but, let's be honest, the guy is 8th in SG: Putting this season so it's a big strength.

Winning a Signature Event would seem a next logical step in his career arc and, with Scheffler away, this is a golden chance.

Back Sahith Theegala each-way @ 28/129.00

Bet here

Back Cam Davis @ 110/1111.00

It's a high-class field but there are only 69 of them and that's why I'm a little surprised to see Cam Davis at a three-figure price and even drifting.

Only last month, the Aussie was tied 12th on just his second appearance in the US Masters and just two major starts earlier he was tied fourth in the US PGA at Oak Hill.

With Quail Hollow a major-style course, the 29-year-old from Sydney clearly has the class to thrive in such an arena.

Davis has had three previous looks at this week's course and in the middle of that trio he was 13th with a round to go before finishing 26th.

While his season-long stats can look off-putting, Davis has gained strokes Off The Tee in each of his last three starts and was 12th for Approach at Augusta.

He can give it a real biff from the tee and actually ranks 24th for Total Driving. It's a welcome surprise to see him rank 2nd for Driving Accuracy in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 6th at the US Masters so he can find the short grass better than most on tough courses.

With 12th at Augusta, top 20s at Pebble Beach (1st Approach) and Bay Hill, along with 21st in Houston, Davis has plenty of worthwhile and relevant form.

Finally, he's also got plenty of good finishes on TifEagle Bermuda e.g. third places at the RBC Heritage and American Express and seventh at last year's Players Championship.

We can even throw in some North Carolina form too as Davis was seventh at the Wyndham Championship on his last appearance there in August 2023.

Back Cam Davis each-way @ 110/1111.00

Bet here

Now read Steve Rawlings' Wells Fargo preview here


Recommended bets

Staked: £480
Returned: £139
P/L: -£341

Previous:
2022/2023 P/L: -£191.44
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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