Waste Management Phoenix Open Each-Way Tips: Spieth to star at Scottsdale

Main Bet: Jordan Spieth each-way @ 17.016/1

It's been a rather frustrating West Coast Swing so far for this column.

Torrey Pines winner Luke List was ditched from the staking plan at the 11th hour while I've also picked Tom Hoge in recent previews but not unfortunately at Pebble Beach.

Thankfully, TPC Scottsdale has been a happy hunting ground and we managed some nice each-way returns with 200/1 Matthew NeSmith 12 months ago.

I noted ahead of last year's preview that Strokes Gained: Approach was the key stat and it played out once more with winner Brooks Koepka finishing 2nd (6.084) in that category.

Koepka was also a previous winner in Phoenix which franked the idea that course form is often a big deal here too.

The front end of the market is loaded, with Jon Rahm (15/2), Justin Thomas (12/1), Viktor Hovland (14/1) and Patrick Cantlay (14/1). Another way of describing that quartet is the World Nos. 1, 7, 3 and 4.

I actually prefer a trio of players just below in the betting - Jordan Spieth, two-time winner Hideki Matsuyama and Scottie Scheffler (tied seventh last year).

It would be simple just to put all three up but there are two long-shots I like so I'll side with Spieth at 16s.

There was a dramatic turnaround in Spieth's iron play at Pebble where he ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach (5.671) after recording negative numbers in his previous four events.

That helped him finish runner-up and, in his own words, it was "one that got away" after he held the lead with just a few holes to go.

In reverse order, the three-time major winner did something similar last year: found something here in Phoenix (fourth) and then took it to Pebble (third) the week after.

The fourth here was also fuelled by irons clicking into gear as he gained 7.848 strokes on Approach.

That strong performance added to seventh at TPC Scottsdale on debut in 2015 and ninth in 2017 so the Texan now has three top 10s in five starts in Phoenix.

It's certainly been a theme with Spieth down the years to excel in back-to-back events, a trend perhaps spotted first when he finished runner-up in Houston before winning the US Masters seven days later.

So having marked our cards at Pebble, it seems an obvious call to pull the trigger.

He's driving the ball better than he was last year and let's remind ourselves of his Saturday round at Scottsdale in 2021, a remarkable 10-under 61.

I expect Matsuyama and Scheffler to play well too but Spieth is the one really blinking at me.

Next Best: Russell Knox each-way @ 126.0125/1

For my two big outsiders, I'll try a repeat of the formula that worked with NeSmith last year: namely, strong recent SG: Approach numbers and desert form.

First up is Russell Knox.

The Scot ranked 10th for SG: Approach at last month's Sony Open where he fired 67-67-64-65 to finish in a tie for seventh. And he was 3rd for SG: Approach at Pebble Beach last week where his putter let him down (T33).

However, it bodes well that he putted far better at the Sony (Bermuda greens) than he did at Pebble (Poa Annua) given that TPC Scottsdale has Bermuda putting surfaces.

As for course form, Knox was tied 15th on debut in 2015, tied 10th in 2019 and tied 16th in 2020 so this is a track he likes.

As for other desert form, he also has a third at the Shriners and three top 25s at La Quinta.

A WGC winner don't forget (HSBC Champions in 2015), Knox looks worth an each-way play at 125s.

Final Bet: Adam Hadwin each-way @ 126.0125/1

Adam Hadwin is certainly a player who pops into the brain when thinking of desert golf.

That's due to his exceptional form in The American Express at La Quinta where he's posted two second places, a third and a sixth. Hadwin almost made the top 25 there last month.

His world ranking has dropped in the last couple of seasons and currently stands at 159th after peaking at 41st.

But there are some good signs. He was tied 10th at the Wyndham Championship to secure a place in the FedEx Cup Play-offs and then tied sixth in another desert tournament, the Shriners Children's Open in Las Vegas, back in October.

After starting 2022 with tied 25th at The American Express he closed with 68-69-69 to finish tied 16th at Pebble Beach last week - his best finish in four starts on the Monterey Peninsula.

Hadwin ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green at Pebble and 7th on Approach. When sixth in Vegas, he ranked 9th on Approach.

At TPC Scottsdale the Canadian has made his last six cuts and I'm hoping he can build on best finishes of tied 12th (2017) and tied 17th (2016).

He's had plenty of good rounds since then such as a Friday 65 in 2018 and bookend 67s last year.

The 2017 Valspar Championship winner is worth a spin at a huge price.

Other long shots I looked at were Brendon Todd, KH Lee (runner-up last year) and 2018 champion Gary Woodland.

Bubba Watson loves this place and so nearly won in Saudi last week but he'll have jet-lag to contend with.

Keith Mitchell was tied 16th a couple of years ago and could be interesting at 70s after his tied 12th at Pebble and tied 7th at the Sony.

But I'll put faith in a big week from Spieth and hope Knox and Hadwin can pull a surprise.