Valspar Championship First-Round Leader Tips: Kizzire fits the Patton

Weather forecast for Thursday: After last week's carnage at Sawgrass it's a relief to know that, touch 3-wood, conditions should be pleasant at Innisbrook Resort. It's sunny and mild throughout the golfing day, temps gradually rising from the mid-60s to the mid-70s.

The wind looks a fraction stronger later on but still pretty calm at around 7mph. There's no draw bias although historically the morning wave does better so I'll go for two early starters in my three picks.

Pick Patton for fast start

Patton Kizzire doesn't waste much time finding a rhythm and this season he has plenty of quick starts.

The American was fourth after 18 holes at the Sony Open and he's finished day one inside the top 12 in each of his latest three events, including last week's Players Championship where he opened with a 68 to sit ninth after round one before ending a solid tied 22nd.

A closing 67 at Sawgrass will hopefully give him some momentum to ride here.

In last year's Valspar Championship, Kizzire completed his first circuit in just 66 blows and that was good enough for second place.

With his putter hot - Kizzire was 7th for Strokes Gained: Putting at the Players Championship - he looks primed to go well early and a tee-time of 08.46 completes the case for him.

Snap up the industry-best 80/1.

History says Bradley is a must

Kizzire heads out from the 10th and in the following group from that tee at 08.57 I'll also put my faith in Keegan Bradley.

I've gone for the 2011 PGA Championship winner in my outright preview and, looking at his history here, Bradley looks an auto-bet for FRL.

He's a popular figure with first-round leader punters and they surely won't want to miss him at the Valspar where his Thursday record is a thing of wonder.

Bradley has played this event five times and he's been first-round leader twice (2016 and 2021) and never outside the top six after the opening lap.

Throw in some excellent current form - fifth at Sawgrass and 11th at Bay Hill - and everything looks in place for his perennial fast start.

Take the 50/1.

Home in on past champ Hadwin

For my afternoon starter, I'll try Adam Hadwin.

The Canadian is a past champion at the Valspar after taking the title in 2017 and he put up a spirited defence in 2018 when tied 12th.

He opened 68-64 in his victory year to grab the halfway lead while the 34-year-old also shot a 68 on his very first lap of the course to sit 10th after round one in 2015.

Hadwin has had some strong results over the last month or so, finishing tied 16th at Pebble, tied 26th in Phoenix and tied ninth at Sawgrass where he threw down a closing 67.

At TPC Scottsdale he opened with a 66 to sit second on Thursday's close-of-play leaderboard while he was also second after day one in the season-opening Fortinet Championship.

Back the 13.47 starter at 50s.