- 33/1 Denny McCarthy enjoys this style of test
- 40/1 Justin Rose has renewed form and incentive
- Max McGreevy could cause a shock at 300/1
Main Bet: Denny McCarthy each-way @ 34.033/1
The final full-field event of the year on the PGA Tour takes us to the familiar surroundings of Sea Island for the RSM Classic.
An event played over two courses - three at the Seaside Course (7,005-yard Par 70) and one at the easier Plantation (7,060 Par 72) - it's another of these coastal events played on Bermuda/Paspalum grass.
Therefore, it seems an obvious tactic to look at the recent tournaments played in similar conditions: namely, the Bermuda Championship at Royal Port and the Worldwide Technology Championship at El Camaleon.
A reminder of the top 10 (and ties) in each:
Bermuda: Power, Detry, Yu, Griffin, Rodgers, McCarthy, Baddeley, Lower, McGreevy, Endycott
WWT: Henley, Harman, Dahmen, Power, Scheffler, Gordon, Merritt, Lingmerth, Ryder, Lipsky, Hovland, Kizzire, McNealy, Montgomery
Seamus Power pops up twice and it's no surprise to see that he was fourth in this event last year. He could go well again at 22s.
But for my main bet I'll go with Denny McCarthy at 33/1.
A part of that is not wanting to be Russell Henley-ed again.
The explanation there is that I and probably lots of other punters had been backing Henley on these types of tracks for years and then perhaps given up on him a little ahead of his bid at El Camaleon.
Henley's form going in wasn't great - 45-MC - and yet his liking for the style of golf demanded by El Camaleon suited him down to the ground and he trotted up at 50s.
McCarthy appears to have similar credentials.
For starters, he has two top 10s in his last three appearances at this event: 2019 and 2021.
There's a bunch of form on correlating courses including a sixth at the Bermuda Championship two starts ago, a fourth there the year before and another top four at the Corales Puntacana.
Yes, he's been a bigger price here previously but McCarthy has stepped up in 2022, finishing fifth at Memorial and seventh at the US Open in back-to-back starts.
I'm convinced one of these lesser-contested events will be the scene of his first win and with Tony Finau the only real star name on show, this is a big chance to burst through the door.
Next Best: Justin Rose each-way @ 41.040/1
Justin Rose looks an intriguing bet this week after his return to form when ninth at last week's Houston Open.
At that Texas event, he ranked 20th for SG: Off The Tee and 7th in SG: Putting while only one player hit more greens in regulation.
It sort of seemed like a surprise, out-of-the-blue result but he was fourth in the Canadian Open at the start of June and that was only seven starts earlier.
Rose likes this type of challenge perhaps more than we might think.
He was tied 12th here last year on just his second appearance in the event and that included bookend 65s.
The Englishman was runner-up in the Sony Open on his last start there (top 15 in previous two Waialae starts), has a fifth and a 10th from four appearances at the Wyndham Championship and his US Open win came on a short course (Merion).
To feel better and to get a greater explanation about his recent mixed form, we need something from the horse's mouth and he provided that in Houston last week.
Asked why he wasn't putting his feet up like many do at this time of year, Rose said: "I feel like I need to get my toe down on the accelerator a little bit.
"It's been not the greatest year and obviously 2022-23 season's up and running and it's time to kind of make some points and get amongst it.
"Last couple seasons I've been on the fringes looking from the outside in at the FedExCup a little bit, so that's not a position I want to continue to put myself in. Yeah, at the end of the day you need to get out here and play some tournaments and make some points.
"Also, coming off the back of I don't want to call it an injury, but just a little bit of back pain in the middle of this year, I took six or seven weeks off.
"So I needed to come out and at least know how I am with my body, first and foremost, and I'm feeling good, which is great. And then kind of start to get some form going and get some info really on what I need to work on in the off-season in December."
Clearly, there were some good signs in Texas and this week we know we're on a real trier rather than someone who may be going through the motions a little as the year winds down.
Rose, who was third after 54 holes last week, is definite each-way betting material at 40s.
Final Bet: Max McGreevy each-way @ 301.0300/1
Finally, I'm going to throw a dart at Max McGreevy, who is a massive price.
The 27-year-old's name appears on that top-10 list at the Bermuda Championship where he carded rounds of 65-70-66-68 to finish in a tie for eighth place.
Five starts earlier he'd recorded a fifth place at the Wyndham Championship when closing with a 65.
To record your best round of the week on pay day shows a bit of mettle.
Those two strong results came on short courses which suggests this type of test should suit him.
Well, we actually know it does.
McGreevy made his debut in this event last year, opened with a 64 and then added laps of 69, 69, 67 to finish in a tie for 16th.
His previous start in Georgia had resulted in a second place finish in the Korn Ferry Tour's Club Car Championship and the one before that a top 15 in the Savannah Golf Championship.
Obviously, I've stripped away a lot of the bad stuff to make the case for him and, in truth, he misses more cuts than he makes.
But McGreevy played 72 holes in Houston last time after posting a 66 on day one and the previous three times he'd qualified for the weekend, the Dallas resident finished 8th, 5th and 13th.
Indeed, he has an ability to just 'pop' and his best finish of 2022 was an excellent second place at the Puerto Rico Open - another coastal event. Having been born in Oklahoma and now living in Texas, maybe it's no surprise he should do well when the wind blows.
His overall stats don't make pretty reading but he ranked 1st for Driving Accuracy when fifth at the Wyndham Championship and he was 11th for Putting Average at the Bermuda.
Given the positives, he certainly takes the eye at 300/1.
Dave's P/L for 2022/23
Staked: £270
Returned: £258.5
P/L: -£11.5
Previous:
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89