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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Harding leads, McIlroy chasing third Majlis win

Matt Cooper
29 January 2022

Harding leads in Dubai

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Justin Harding calmly negotiated third round problems to retain the lead in the Dubai Desert Classic, but Rory McIlroy is hot on his heels with 18 holes to play...

"McIlroy is 8-for-26 at turning second after three rounds into victory, but has pounced in four of the last five such scenarios."

13:45 - January 29, 2022

The in-tournament interviews conducted by Sky Sports often have you cringing if you happen to have backed the player in question. The notion of asking them questions seems utterly fraught with danger, offering precious few upsides.

But when Tim Barter chatted to Justin Harding at the turn during the third round, even though he was 1-over for the day and had ceded his pre-round lead, he seemed notably composed and relaxed. In adding two back nine birdies soon afterwards he backed up that feeling, and he'll need more of the same on Sunday even though he leads the field by two after signing for a 71 and a 12-under 54 hole total of 204.

Of course, as noted throughout this blog, Steve Rawlings highlighted Harding's case in his tournament preview. The South African was tied seventh in this event on debut in 2019 (with a final lap 63) and top 10 all week until the final round last year.

That's the good news. The bad is that his last two Sunday scores on the Majlis Course at the Emirates GC are 75 and 76. There is also the little matter of his last two experiences of leading at this stage: he was three clear in last year's Savannah Classic before a 74 left him T14th, then four clear in the South African Open until a 77 left him tied sixth. Fingers crossed for Steve and all who followed him.

Here is the leaderboard and prices to back at 13:45.

Justin Harding -12 4.216/5
Rory McIlroy -10 3.412/5
Tommy Fleetwood -9 9.08/1
Erik Van Rooyen -9 11.521/2
Bernd Wiesberger -8 19.018/1
Paul Casey -8 16.5
Adrian Meronk -8 36.035/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -8 46.045/1
Richard Bland -8 38.037/1
Tyrrell Hatton -8 15.014/1
-7 30.029/1 and bar

It's worth considering that 20 of the last 24 winners here were tied third or better at this stage of the tournament. It's arguably just as relevant to note that, of the four exceptions, one was only one shot back, another just three shots back and a third was Tiger Woods (i.e. not a normal golfer).

So the only real eventual winner to catapult himself from down the leaderboard was Lucas Herbert two years ago, who negotiated the strong winds better than anyone to win from T13th and six shots back after three rounds.

The current weather forecast indicates there might well be blustery breezes on Sunday, but nothing that should prompt chaos. So we ought to feel relatively comfortable focussing on the current top four.

"I'm excited," said Rory McIlroy, after his 69 eased him into solo occupation of second. It was interesting that he mentioned how he'd let a third title here slip when Haotong Li won in 2018. McIlroy with that sort of memory closing his teeth down on the bit is always a sharper proposition. The market agrees and has him favourite. He's 8-for-26 at turning second after three rounds into victory, but has pounced in four of the last five such scenarios.

Tommy Fleetwood is talking in terms of the long term project of rediscovering his consistency, but a win would be a massive boost. His last two victories came from off the pace (two back in the 2018 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, six back in the 2019 Nedbank Challenge).

Meanwhile, Erik Van Rooyen looks to be playing with the confidence of a DP World Tour regular who has crossed the Atlantic, won there, been consistent afterwards, and is now walking a little taller back on his old stomping ground. His performance this week is a big upgrade on his past efforts at the Emirates: he'd broken 73 just twice in six laps before doing so three times this week, and his only experience of Sunday had him signing for a 76.

I'm adding McIlroy to the back of Hatton which looked good until a shocking run of four dropped shots in four holes midway through the back nine.

09:45 - January 29, 2022

It's entirely possible, if not probable, that everyone expected Adam Schenk would struggle when playing Friday with his fellow pre-round leaders Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas. Yet to win on tour, Schenk carded a 75, but more surprising was that the two more experienced performers also had third round problems. Thomas stumbled late in the day for a 73, while Rahm dropped three shots right after the turn before fighting back to card an even-par 72.

Those difficulties allowed two chasers to not only catch but pass the pace-setters. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:45.

Will Zalatoris -14 5.59/2
Jason Day -14 6.611/2
Aaron Rai -13 20.019/1
Jon Rahm -13 3.814/5
Sungjae Im -12 13.012/1
Cameron Tringale -12 26.025/1
Justin Thomas -12 10.519/2
-11 and 38.037/1 bar

It's a first PGA Tour 54 hole lead for Will Zalatoris, but he was 1-for-2 at converting from this position on the Korn Ferry Tour. He's dropped plenty of hints, too. He was tied sixth last week in The American Express, tied seventh in this tournament last year, and landing three major championship top 10s last season also suggested he would enjoy the return to a major-hosting venue.

He gained over three strokes on the field in Approach and six Tee to Green; maintain those standards and he'll be tough to beat. The flipside is that maintaining such quality over 36 holes would be some achievement.

Jason Day's Torrey Pines affinity has never been in doubt. He has six top 20 finishes from 12 starts including wins in 2015 and 2018. The state of his game is much less easy to predict. He finished T49th last week in Palm Springs, his best result since early July last year (and only a sixth outing since then).

The Australian has a mighty fine record when holding or sharing a third round lead. He's 9-for-18 in his career and has converted in six of his last eight such opportunities, albeit the last such was way back in May 2018 (the last time lifted a trophy).

The market respects both the leaders, but when it weighs up one's maiden status and the other's win drought, it continues to make Rahm favourite. We've dealt with his strong course form in detail this week, he's twice found great final rounds when needed here, and he's the World No. 1. He has appeared to be forcing it a little at times this week, but he also fought back well from adversity yesterday and insisted: "I played great. I feel I played a lot better than the score shows."

Englishman Aaron Rai has bounced back from missing his first three cuts in his rookie campaign to play five of the next six weekends including three top 20s. This final round will be a different kettle of fish, however. Not only his card retention, but a huge career advance is in prospect should he win.

As with Cameron Tringale, tied fifth or better with 18 holes to play for the sixth time in his last 21 starts but still yet to win in 317 tour appearances, Rai is deemed an outsider among the top seven.

Sungjae Im and Justin Thomas sit in-between both camps. The Korean looks set to land a sixth top 20 in his last seven starts, a run that began with a win in Las Vegas, but also a first Torrey Pines top 30 in his fifth visit. Thomas ought to improve on his Torrey best of T10th and will hope to still contend, but the recent trend of wasting chances to win (discussed below) did rear itself again in the third round.

16:00 - January 28, 2022

Steve Rawlings might be taking a break with the blog this week, but his suggested selection of Justin Harding in the Dubai Desert Classic preview is doing him proud. The South African swapped eight birdies and just the one bogey in his second round of 7-under-par 65 which left him two blows clear of the field at the halfway stage on 11-under 133.

He has an interesting record with both 36 and 54-hole leads. On the Sunshine Tour he's spurned two leads in 72 hole events and has a 100% record in 54 hole events, he's 1-for-3 on the Asian Tour, and then there's the European Tour. He led the 2019 Qatar Masters at halfway, dropped three back after 54 holes and won by two.

He also shared the third round lead in the 2018 Mauritius Open before finishing fourth, he maintained a two-shot advantage at that stage when winning last year's Kenya Open, a week later led by three after 54 holes at the same course in the Savannah Classic, but plunged to T14th with a 73. Nine months later there was a nasty echo of that experience. He led the South African Open by four, but a last day 77 left him tied sixth.

Followers of Steve's advice will hope for no repeats, but their shadow will creep over him at times this weekend.

Let's take a look at the leading scores and prices as of 4.00:

Justin Harding -11 8.07/1
Tyrrell Hatton -9 5.04/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -8 36.035/1
Erik Van Rooyen -8 11.010/1
Joachim B. Hansen -7 40.039/1
Adrian Meronk -7 42.041/1
Rory McIlroy -7 6.25/1
Viktor Hovland -7 8.07/1
Richard Bland -7 46.045/1
-6 22.021/1 bar

For a second day running Tyrrell Hatton made a bogey at the first, but his response was superb. He made four birdies on the bounce from the second and added another three early in the back nine to climb into second.

Last week he carded a nine and a seven on the par-5 18th. One train of thought is that had he played them in par he'd have won by three. Another is that he used up his best golf and spurned the win with those two errors.

But he looks in good shape. He's a two-time third place finisher on the Majlis Course, he was also tied eighth in 2016, and even his T22nd last year reads well if you recall that he was T115th after 18 holes. "I'm continuing my good golf from last week," he said afterwards, noting he had putted well and then adding: "To win this tournament would be pretty special. I remember when I was at school waking up early to watch it. Hoping for a strong weekend."

He'll need to chase down the leader and the market views Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland his most serious rivals. The Northern Irishman said his second round 66 "could have been way lower" and that his game "feels good". Steve often references how McIlroy wins less frequently than the market indicates; it's a point always worth considering even if he does adore this test (never outside the top 10 in his last eight visits with two wins).

Hovland added a 69 to his opening 68 and admitted that he was spraying tee shots and making mistakes. With Hatton referencing his performance last week in good terms I'm going to add him at 5.04/1.

9:45 - January 28, 2022

Let's start by maintaining yesterday's 400m track metaphor. After two rounds (one apiece on the North and South Course) the stagger has evened out and there is no longer any need to guess who is leading. Jon Rahm didn't entirely have it his own way with the easier North Course - there were a couple of bear-with-a-sore-head moments - but his 65 leaves him where the first round betting accurately had him: top of the leaderboard on 13-under 131.

The mild surprise is that he's not alone. Adam Schenk birdied eight straight holes - one shy of the PGA Tour record - in a 62 on the North to join the Spaniard and Justin Thomas also sits on that number after he carded a bogey-free 63 on the simpler test.

As you'll see from these numbers, as of 9.30, the markets sees this pretty much as a head-to-head at the weekend.

Adam Schenk -13 23.022/1
Jon Rahm -13 2.47/5
Justin Thomas -13 3.9
Cameron Tringale -12 13.5
Peter Malnati -11 70.069/1
-10 46.045/1 bar

Tringale is judged the biggest threat to the trio of pace-setters, but his price reflects that the four-time runner-up is still seeking a first win in his 318th start.

The lack of faith in Schenk is also revealed in the numbers. He's made 124 career PGA Tour starts and landed seven top five finishes. Rahm has made less appearances (115) and very nearly won as many times (six) as Schenk has flirted with the top of the leaderboard. He's also finished top five 56 times. Thomas has 14 wins and 63 top fives from 181 starts.

Schenk is not entirely unused to contending though - this is the fifth time in 15 starts that he's been top five after 36 holes and three times he hung around through the final 36 holes. He's learning, but the task ahead of him is huge.

It's his fourth tournament start, the second time he's made the weekend and he's not finished top 50 before. Rahm, as we established yesterday, has an awesome course record. Moreover, but for two shocking laps in 2018 (75-77), he has always played the weekend well. Six of his other 10 rounds were sub-par, five sub-70, none over-par.

Thomas carded 72-69 in his only other Farmers Insurance Open weekend and 71-73 at the US Open. He stopped playing this event in 2016 and revealed pre-event that the return for the US Open changed his mind about the quality of the Torrey Pines test. As it stands, that's looking like a good decision.

His big issue is rediscovering the knack of winning from good positions. In his last 30 starts he has been tied sixth or better after 18, 36 or 54 holes on no less than 14 occasions yet has lifted the trophy just the once, at last year's PLAYERS Championship.

The tournament has witnessed big weekend comebacks, but that's often been influenced by weather conditions and, as things stand, there is nothing likely to favour the early starters.

All three of Paul Krishnamurty's selections made the cut with Christiaan Bezuidenhout best placed at T23rd, currently three shots outside the top 10.

16:00 - January 27, 2022

There was a barn-storming start to the week for Dane Joachim B. Hansen who has long had the habit of making protracted birdie bursts, but is now much-improved at keeping the damaging scores from his scorecard. In fact, it was once the case that he didn't just swap lots of birdies and bogeys, but plenty of birdies and plenty of double bogeys as well.

On day one at the Emirates GC, however, he had four red numbers in a row from the second, three in four holes from the 10th, and, as importantly, not one blemish in his 7-under-par 65. He's not guaranteed the end-of-round lead because second-placed Justin Harding, who Steve highlighted in his preview, will set an early alarm call in order to return first thing and play the par-5 18th lying just one shot back.

For what it's worth, Hansen converted just one of nine first round solo and shared leads on the second and third tier, and is now 1-for-2 on the DP World Tour. Both the latter occurred last year. He opened with a 63 to share the lead in the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open, going on to finish tied seventh, then won the Dubai Championship after kicking off with another 63 (although it wasn't a wire-to-wire success; he ceded the 36 hole advantage).

Here is the state of play at 4.15:

JB Hansen -7 13.5
Justin Harding -6 (17) 20.019/1
Pablo Larrazabal -5 50.049/1
Sergio Garcia -5 9.617/2
Andrea Pavan -5 100.099/1
Tommy Fleetwood -5 10.09/1
Thongchai Jaidee -5 100.099/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -5 (17) 23.022/1

The omens are good for Sergio Garcia, who has finished top six in three of the last five editions of this event, winning the first of those, and every time he was tied third or better after 18 holes. Tommy Fleetwood is looking for a fifth tournament top 20 on the trot, but a first top five. In that run, he has always bettered par in the second round and three times gone sub-70.

The market, however, looks a little lower down the scoring for the two favourites. Viktor Hovland, priced 6.611/2, and Collin Morikawa, available at 7.87/1, both carded 68 for a current share of ninth, and both could easily have been in better shape. The Norwegian failed to break par at the vulnerable 17th and 18th at the end of his round; the American dropped three shots in four holes as he closed on the front nine.

The pair might be frustrated by their Thursday conclusions, but with 20 of the last 24 winners of the event having been T13th or better after 18 holes they're right in the hunt. Hovland will be a little happier with Friday's weather forecast which suggests a calm morning, with the possibility stronger afternoon breezes. The Norwegian has a morning tee time, as does Fleetwood, Hansen and Harding (the latter after mopping up his first lap).

9:30 - January 27, 2022

Billy Horschel leads the Farmers Insurance Open by one shot after carding a 63 on the North Course at Torrey Pines but, rather like a 400m track race, this event has something of a staggered start - and those who begin their week on the tougher South Course are not as badly off as it might first appear.

That spells great news for Jon Rahm, who not only signed for the lowest score there in round one (66), but did so by draining an eagle putt at the 18th hole, reviving memories of the way he clinched victory in 2017.

Only five other golfers went lower than 69 on the South. Luke List, Peter Malnati and Cameron Tringale had 67s; Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson a pair of 68s.

Rahm's start maintains his frankly dizzying consistency on the San Diego cliff tops. In addition to the win five years ago, he triumphed in the US Open there last June, has another three top seven finishes, and the only time he struggled (albeit with T29th) he was second at halfway. He opened 9.89/1 on Monday morning and is now 3.45.

Here's the early leaderboard with prices to back at 9.30:

Billy Horschel (NC) -9 17.016/1
Michael Thompson (NC) -8 55.054/1
Stephan Jaeger (NC) -7 150.0149/1
Kevin Tway (NC) -7 200.0199/1
Rickie Fowler (NC) -6 80.079/1
Doug Ghim (NC) -6 130.0129/1
Francesco Molinari (NC) -6 65.064/1
Jon Rahm (SC) -6 3.45

What is immediately apparent is that the market isn't fooled by the stagger. Although five shots off the "lead", Thomas is available at 13.012/1 and Johnson at 16.5. That said, while the two major winners don't have poor records at Torrey Pines, they don't have especially good ones for players of their undoubted quality.

Johnson has four top 10s in 11 starts (two of those US Opens), but just one top 15 (third in 2011). Thomas has two top 20s in three visits with a best of T10th in 2014.

What of the actual leader Horschel? He's not without form at Torrey. He has two tied eighths (in 2016 and 2019) and on another two occasions he was contending at halfway. But he missed the cut on both his 2021 visits and, with three laps on the South Course to come, his weekend average in the tournament (which is all played on the South) is a worrying 73.72.

Dubai Desert Classic In-Play:

Tyrrell Hatton @ 5.0

Rory McIlroy @ 3.45

Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:

Back Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1u @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1
Back Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 10 Finish 1u @ 9.28/1

Back Keegan Bradley 1u @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1
Back Keegan Bradley Top 10 Finish 1u @ 8.415/2

Back Joseph Bramlett 1u @ 220.0219/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1
Back Joseph Bramlett Top 10 Finish 1u @ around 12.011/1

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