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50/1 Keegan Bradley has gone low in R1 since the March switch
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80/1 Tom Hoge is a proven fast starter on the PGA Tour
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50/1 Corey Conners has twice been a FRL in Florida
Weather forecast for Thursday: Temperatures are steady around the 70 degrees mark but it could get a little gusty for the very early starters and blow at around 12-14mph. In the afternoon, wind speeds are a little less at 8-9mph.
Against that, morning starters have provided five of the six first-round leaders since the tournament switched back to March from May.
Count on Keegan
Keegan Bradley is always on the radar for most first-round leader punters but the former USPGA winner had been having a rather lean time of it on Thursdays.
That was until Bay Hill last week when he opened with a 68 to end the opening lap in fifth place.
Bradley went on to finish tied 10th after a strong finish and a check of the current FedEx Cup standings has him in third place behind only Jon Rahm and Max Homa. Not bad company to keep.
And then we have his Sawgrass form to add further hopes for a fast start.
Bradley seems to have enjoyed the tournament's switch back to March more than most and in 2019 he emerged as the first-round leader after a Thursday 65.
He went on to take 29th in 2021 after sitting 11th after 18 holes while in 2022 the American closed with a pair of 68s to finish fifth.
Strong long iron play serves him well at Sawgrass so let's back Bradley from his afteroon 1.18pm tee-time at 50/1.
Hoge has hope
It might come as a surprise that Tom Hoge has held a piece of the first-round lead nine times in his PGA Tour career.
He managed it on three occasions in 2022 and the second of those was here at TPC Sawgrass thanks to a 66.
Starting well at The Players Championship wasn't new to him either as 69s in both 2019 and 2021 had left him 13th and sixth respectively on the final Thursday leaderboard.
He's been a little hit and miss in 2023 and missed the cut at Bay Hill but prior to that Hoge had finished 14th at Riviera after entering the final round of that Genesis Invitational in the top six.
On the stats, his ranking of 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 38th in SG: Putting looks a good combination to do well here.
Back the 12.34pm starter at 80/1.
Take aim with Corey
Corey Conners, a 7.34am starter, will have to deal with slightly gustier winds for a few holes but he tees off at the 1st so it should have calmed a little by the time he gets to Sawgrass' infamous 17th.
The Canadian gets in the staking plan thanks to a series of strong starts in Florida.
He's twice been a first-round leader in the Sunshine State, once at the 2018 Valspar Championship after a 67 and, most recently, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational via an opening 66.
Conners has also hit the ground running at Sawgrass and ended day one in third place at the 2021 Players Championship after a 4-under 68.
While the 2020 edition was cancelled, the first round did take place and Conners was seventh through 18 holes before the pandemic ended play.
After sitting third at the halfway mark at Bay Hill last week, Conners has the form, game and proven Thursday record to make an early mark once more.