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The Players Championship Each-Way Tips: Fitzpatrick has major chance

Dave Tindall
07 March 2023
4:00 min read

England's Matt Fitzpatrick is Dave's headline pick

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The PGA Tour stays in Florida for one of the season's showpiece events and Matt Fitzpatrick can make his mark at Bay Hill, says Dave Tindall...

28/1 Matt Fitzpatrick is strong in Florida and fits past trends
28/1 Jason Day is a former Sawgrass winner showing superb consistency
40/1 Corey Conners is a fan of the course and arrives in form

Main Bet: Matt Fitzpatrick each-way @ 28/1

Traditionally billed as the "fifth major", this year's Players Championship in Florida feels more like the latest gathering of golf's elite.

That's hardly anything to complain about and fans who want to see the world's best battling it out on a more regular basis are certainly getting their fix.

Last week, the good and the great gathered at Bay Hill although it was one of the Davids who slayed the many Goliaths as Kurt Kitayama came through to score the biggest win of his career.

The two previous elevated £20million dollar events had been captured by Jon Rahm (Genesis Invitational) and Scottie Scheffler (Waste Management Phoenix Open). They currently sit first and second in the world rankings.

Similarly, this annual shootout at famed TPC Sawgrass often goes to a big gun although not always.

The last three winners - Cam Smith, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy - were all top 10 players at the time but Webb Simpson was ranked 41st ahead of his 2018 success while shock (although not as big a shock as many make out) 2017 winner Si Woo Kim was 75th.

Jason Day and Tiger Woods were both top of the world rankings when they triumphed in 2016 and 2013 respectively so that bodes well for 8/1 tournament favourite Rahm.

As a world-class player in his 20s with the required mix of course experience and current form, Rahm fits the trends this week.

But at nearly four times the price, my main bet is another player who ticks all the right boxes - Matt Fitzpatrick.

Six of the last 10 winners of this event were already Major champions and Cam Smith has since gone on to win one.

Back Matt Fitzpatrick each-way (12 places) @

28/1

Fitzpatrick, of course, now belongs in that bracket after his superb US Open victory last summer.

On first glance, his Sawgrass form is somewhat underwhelming. He's missed the cut in three of his six appearances and has just a single finish inside the top 40.

Now the better news. Two of the missed cuts were on his first two appearances while before last year's early exit he'd shot 12 straight rounds of par or better: no mean feat on this demanding par 72.

The highlight was a ninth place in 2021 when he was second at halfway following a pair of opening 68s.

Unlike, say, Augusta, Sawgrass is a venue where consistently strong course form is hard to come by. Take Rory McIlroy: three missed cuts to start with followed by some good results and another early exit before he won in 2019. In many ways, that's similar to Fitzpatrick's trajectory.

The key is some evidence of playing well and Fitzpatrick has that following his top 10 two years ago.

Speaking then, he said: "I personally think the straighter hitters probably have a bit of advantage around here. Gives you more of a chance to hit more greens really."

Fitzpatrick, a prolific stats gatherer, had also noted that he didn't play well in week four of a consecutive stretch. That was his fourth tournament in a row so perhaps it wasn't a surprise he ran out of gas and dropped from second after 36 holes to ninth.

This time, it's just the 28-year-old's second event on the spin and he warmed up for it with a tied 14th in last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.

That finish gave Fitzpatrick an eighth top 15 from his last 10 starts in Florida so this is definitely a good part of the schedule for him.

After a strong driving performance last week (6th SG: Off The Tee), there is lots to like.

Next Best: Jason Day each-way @ 28/1

With 12 payout places available this week, Jason Day looks a good option.

The Aussie has just missed out on the usual eight places each-way cash in the last two events when finishing tied 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week and tied ninth in the Genesis Invitational.

Prior to that he made the top five in the Waste Management Phoenix Open and took seventh in the Farmers Insurance Open.

If we go all the way back to the Shriners in October, Day's form figures are tremendously consistent: 10-9-5-7-18-MC-16-21-11-8.

That high level of performance is being fuelled by strong play across the board. Going through his Strokes Gained numbers, Day is 6th for SG: Total, 12th Tee To Green, 14th Putting, 25th Approach, 27th Off The Tee and 56th Around The Green.

Not surprisingly, he's fifth in the All-Around rankings and that's a good stat for a potential Sawgrass winner, who has to do everything well.

Back Jason Day each-way (12 places) @

28/1

Day, as we know, has already conquered the famous Pete Dye track when taking the title in 2016 when at the top of his game. He's since finished fifth in 2018 and eighth in 2019 and that adds to a sixth back in 2011 and a further top 20 in 2013.

"The putting's nice. Short game's looking really good. Good form going into next week," said Day at Scottsdale before going on to take ninth at Riviera.

He's likely to be a popular pick but understandably so for a player who has three victories on Pete Dye courses: this one, the Match Play at Austin and the 2015 PGA at Whistling Straits. Take the 28/1.

Final Bet: Corey Conners each-way @ 40/1

The switch in the schedule from May back to March is something worth noting in this tournament.

And that could be significant for Keegan Bradley, who has form of 5-29-16 in March when the course plays firmer and faster.

He's an option at 33/1 but I'll jump down to 40/1 and make Corey Conners my final bet.

The Canadian has only ever played this event in March and he's laid down some good foundations.

On debut in 2019, Conners was in the top 25 after 54 holes before slipping to 41st. In 2021 he opened with a 68 and closed with a 66 to finish seventh. And last year he was fifth at halfway before ending tied 26th.

Widening it out, he's also built a strong record on Pete Dye courses. That includes form of 12-4-21 in the last three editions of The Heritage at Harbour Town and third in the 2022 WGC Match Play at Austin.

Aggregating that, he has four top 12 finishes in his last eight starts on Dye tracks.

As for current form, Conners has six top 25s in his last eight starts although nothing better than 11th. In other words, he looks an ideal candidate to benefit from those 12 each-way places.

Last week he was third at the halfway mark at Bay Hill and 12th with a round to go so Conners looks close to a breakout performance after lots of solid ones.

Back Corey Conners each-way (12 places) @

40/1

At Sawgrass two years ago, he said: "I love it here. It's one of my favourite tournaments on the schedule.

"I definitely like the challenging golf courses and I've always really liked this golf course. It's a great challenge, but something that I'm excited for."

After day two at Bay Hill last week, he also dropped some useful quotes. "I played really, really solid. I did everything well. Drove it well, hit my irons and wedges well and made some putts."

The putter is normally the worry with Conners but those quotes along with stats that show he's recorded positive SG: Putting figures in his last two events is encouraging.

Looking further down the market, Davis Riley at 100/1 would be my player at a three-figure price.

He was eighth at Bay Hill on Sunday after closing with a 66 while he was runner-up in another Florida event, the Valspar, last year.

Staked: £630
Returned: £316.5
P/L: -£313.5

Previous:
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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