Weather forecast for Thursday: It looks like one of those Florida days when the wind picks up in the afternoon. The latest prediction suggests 6-10mph in the morning but a steady 13mph for those in the p.m. wave. Not a great difference but perhaps enough to make me pick two early starters and one late. Temperatures start at a pleasant 70 degrees and rise to a peak of 80 from 12pm-2pm.
Jump in for Johnson
PGA National has been a great venue for Open winners down the years and that helps shine a light on Zach Johnson.
It hasn't always worked out for him here but last year's eighth place showed he has the tools to succeed on this tough par 70.
Most notable is his first-round record at The Honda.
Reading back from 2021, his R1 positions here are: 9-3-2-24-106-13-11.
Just four starts ago, the 2015 Open champion shot a 61 on day one of the RSM Classic while last month he was T8 at halfway and eventually T14 at The American Express.
Johnson will be in the news in a few days' time and hopefully he can make some Thursday headlines too.
The 80/1 shot (1/4 odds 5 places) sets out at 07:34.
Pan the man
C.T. Pan was third in last year's Honda Classic and had shown a performance like that was coming after good displays on his first two visits.
On debut in 2018 he was fifth at halfway and a year later Pan posted tied 17th.
As for good starts, he was fifth after 18 holes in 2018 thanks to a 66 while an opening 67 put him ninth on last year's Thursday leaderboard.
Marry that up with recent strong first rounds and we have a FRL punt at 66s.
Those come in the form of a 67 to put him sixth after day one at Riviera last week and another 67 at Torrey Pines (easier North Course to be fair) where he ended day one in ninth.
Pan is another early starter at 07:23.
Vegas can hit jackpot
At the prices, Jhonattan Vegas is the only I like best from the afternoon starters.
The Colombian, who pegs it up at 11:56, is a 55/1 shot.
In 15 starts between May and November last year, Vegas ended round one in the top 10 on no less than nine occasions.
The highlight was a Thursday 64 at the 3M Open that gave him the first-round lead.
Adding to his appeal is a record of five top 30s in his last seven starts at Honda National. That run includes a fourth place in 2017 when he closed with a 64.
He also shot a 64 in 2019 and, of particular relevance to this market, it came on Thursday to secure day one honours.
Vegas also went low in the final two rounds of the recent Saudi International as scores of 65-66 elevated him to eighth spot.
Join all the dots and we see a good Thursday punt start to emerge.