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66/167.00 Mark Hubbard can rack up the birdies
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18/119.00 local resident Si-Woo Kim was second last year
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70/171.00 big hitter Peter Kuest was 14th here on debut
I quite like the new name of this event, The CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
If you can unite two tournament names, perhaps you can also unite two rival tours. The PGA LIV Tour anyone? You heard it here first.
Despite the updated moniker for this long-standing Tour stop in Texas, the venue remains the same although we haven't exactly got reams of course form to peruse as this is just the fourth year at TPC Craig Ranch.
Is basic terms, this is a birdie-fest on a 7,414-yard par 71.
Jason Day poured in 26 birdies when winning with 23-under last year. C.T. Pan had four eagles and closed with a 62 to finish fourth.
This is Texas so windy conditions are part of the deal, certainly on Thursday and Sunday according the latest forecast. T-storms could be a factor too.
There seem to more players I could make a case for than just about any other week so far this season.
But one at a biggish price on that lengthy list is Mark Hubbard and his credentials looks just as good as plenty of those at much shorter odds.
The 34-year-old is 18th in Par Breakers and 21st in Birdie Average this season which immediately flags him up as someone who could go well in a birdie-fest.
Hubbard was fourth at Pebble Beach earlier in the campaign and hasn't missed a cut in 2024.
His last trip to the Lone Star State resulted in 25th at the Texas Open on a course much tougher than this and he enjoyed the birdie-making fun of last week's Zurich Classic of New Orleans where he finished third alongside Ryan Brehm.
They fell just a shot shy of the playoff, Brehm noting of Hubbard: "I'm sure glad he was on my team to chip this week."
That has relevance as scrambling has been a good pointer to success at TPC Craig Ranch: the first four home in that category were ranked 10th, 6th, 1st and 8th last year.
Hubbard is in the top 25 for Strokes Gained: Approach this season so his irons have been consistenly strong and will help him set up lots of birdie chances. On that front, he's 26th in Birdie or Better Conversion.
The final question: does he have any course form?
Finishes of 32nd and 34th are decent enough but it's worth noting that he shot a pre-cut 65 in both his visits.
There's plenty of potential improvement therefore and lots to like about the 66/167.00 chance.
Koreans have won this event three times in the last four years which seems an unlikely stat on first glance.
But plenty of the PGA Tour's Korean contingent have set up home in Texas and that includes Si-Woo Kim.
Kim almost stretched that sequence of Korean wins to four last year when shooting 22-under and finishing just a stroke behind champion Jason Day.
His form this year suggests there's a good chance he goes one better.
Kim is 10th overall in Strokes Gained: Total and 4th SG: Tee To Green. Those are oustanding numbers in a field of limited quality.
The negative in his season-long stats is his putting but he was 2nd for Putting Average and 11th for SG: Putting at The Players Championship, the scene of one of his previous wins, and was in the top 25 for SGP on these surfaces last year.
He's finished outside the top 30 just once in his last nine PGA Tour starts and that includes 17th in the Houston Open on his latest appearance in Texas.
Talking after finishing runner-up last year, Kim said: "I think it was a great week, especially as this is my kind of second hometown. It feels great to play great at home week."
Hopefully those home comforts kick in again and Kim - a four-time winner on the PGA Tour (two of those with -21 and -23) - can finish in front once more.
Alex Noren was certainly on my radar at 25/126.00 after his run of five straight top 25s and course form of 12-21.
But I'll look further down the betting for pick three.
Peter Kuest hasn't played enough events to register on the official stats this season.
But if the 25-year-old California had, his average thwack of 323 yards off the tee would put him 1st in Driving Distance.
He really comes into the crosshairs due to an appealing mix of course and current form.
Kuest made his first start in this event last year and fired rounds of 70-67-67-63 to finish tied 14th, ranking 1st Off The Tee and 14th for Putting.
After a run of missed cuts on the Korn Ferry (although he exited at halfway in two of those despite scores of 70-66 and 69-68), he's really sparked to life back on the main PGA Tour.
At the Texas Open at the start of April he closed with 68 to finish 10th and he followed that up with ninth at the Corales Puntacana Championship thanks to weekend laps of 67 and 66.
He's been racking up the birdies and eagles in recent events and this looks the sort of course on which he can thrive once more.
"I like Texas, I like coming down here, the fans are awesome," said Kuest at the Texas Open and you can see why after 10th and 14th on his last two visits to the Lone Star State.
Take him at 70/171.00 to finish even higher up the leaderboard this time.