The BMW Championship Each-Way Tips: Caves man Cantlay can bash rivals

American Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay should enjoy this test

It's the second event of FedEx Cup Playoffs and Dave Tindall seeks more profits with three tips for the action at Caves Valley Golf Club...

"Cantlay is in the top 25 for Driving Distance on the PGA Tour and putts well on Bentgrass greens which are the surfaces this week. A lengthyish par 72 - the same description as Muirfield Village where he won - certainly looks up his street."

Back Patrick Cantlay E/W @ 23.022/1

Main Bet: Patrick Cantlay each-way @ 23.022/1

Punters are used to this tournament moving around and Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland is the sixth different venue in six years.

There was recent course form to study with some of the previous five but, on first glance, that doesn't seem the case with Caves Valley given that local media are championing the fact that the PGA Tour is heading to Baltimore for the first time since 1964!

However, there is a clue or two. The course staged the 2017 Constellation Senior Players Championship on the Champions Tour and that event was won by Scott McCarron.

Those with memories of McCarron in his PGA Tour days will recall him being a big hitter and in the year of that win (2017) he ranked 3rd in Driving Distance on the season-long Champions Tour stats while joint runner-up Brandt Jobt was 4th.

In fact, the top five finishers that week can all be found in the top 25 in the 2017 DD charts, with three of them in the top 10.

With the course lengthened to over 7,500 yards, there seems a decent chance that big hitters doing well there in the past will translate to this week.

Looking at more stats from 2017 shows that four of the top five ranked in the top seven for Putts Per Round.

McCarron's overall stats for that week in 2017 were: 2nd DD, 45th DA, 47th GIR, 4th Scrambling, 2nd PA, 2nd PPR.

This isn't an easy week though.

The world's top player, Jon Rahm, is a very short price (6/1) and messed up last week when looking set to win while plenty of the other elite performers are struggling to put their best foot forward.

But I do think Patrick Cantlay's form stands up to some close scrutiny.

Take out his missed cut at Royal St George's (even then he shot a Friday 69) and he hasn't been outside the top 25 in six other starts.

The highlight of that was a victory at Memorial while in his last two outings the Californian has built some further momentum with T23 at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational and T11 at The Northern Trust.

His last seven rounds read 67-69-67-68-67-69-68 so there's a consistency there that's lacking in so many of his big-name rivals.

Cantlay is in the top 25 for Driving Distance on the PGA Tour and putts well on Bentgrass greens which are the surfaces this week. A lengthyish par 72 - the same description as Muirfield Village where he won - certainly looks up his street.

There's not much more to it that that beyond saying he's 4th in the FedEx Cup standings and a big week here could put him in first or second going into the closer in Atlanta and in prime position to lift the jackpot.

He won Memorial at 20/1; hopefully he can go in again here at 22s.

Next Best: Scottie Scheffler each-way @ 31.030/1

With the field size now whittled down to 70, the betting is bunched with the top 22 players in the market all 35/1 or less.

I think Tony Finau could be in for another big, big week having ended his five-year wait for a win and this week's course fuels that idea.

And with Finau finally getting it done and Abraham Ancer grabbing his first victory (at St. Jude), perhaps this is a good time for streaks to be snapped.

If so, how about Louis Oosthuizen finally getting his first win on American soil? As well as all the excellent recent form in 2021's majors, he's also a former runner-up (of course!) in the US PGA at Quail Hollow.

The significance to that is that Quail Hollow, like this week's layout, was designed by Tom Fazio.

I expect all three to go well but Finau and Oosthuizen are just a fraction short at 22/1 and maybe this isn't the ideal course for Ancer.

However, there is another obvious player who fits the above theme.

I'm perhaps in danger of following Scottie Scheffler off a cliff but this looks another good chance to for the languid Texan.

I thought that last week too but he didn't ever get in a blow at The Northern Trust and finished down in T43.

However, it wasn't exactly a disaster. He shot four rounds of 70 or better, ranked 8th for SG: Off The Tee and 4th for Greens In Regulation.

A cold putter did for him on that occasion but he putted superbly at Memorial and the US Open so it's easy to pass it off.

On the season-long stats, Scheffler is 14th for Driving Distance and 88th for SG: Putting (but capable of hot-streaks) and he has a bunch of big results when the very best are in town.

He showed that by finishing in the top eight in each of the last three majors and his season has been sprinkled with serious pay-days.

The 30/1 looks okay based on what he's achieved and hopefully he'll have noted those wins for Ancer and Finau and can take a bit of inspiration and belief that good things come to those who wait.

Final Bet: Charley Hoffman each-way @ 101.0100/1

Scheffler is 24th in the FedExCup standings so still can't count his chickens and there's certainly an angle in looking at those around the top-30 bubble.

Max Homa is 30th and occupying the final slot while Kevin Kisner, Keegan Bradley, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Tringale and Marc Leishman rank 31st-35th.

The next most precarious position for the Tour Championship hopefuls is held by 29th-placed Charley Hoffman but he has some forward momentum after edging up from 32nd last week.

That was thanks to tied 21st at The Northern Trust where he did well to recover from a muted first-round 73. Hoffman fired back-to-back 65s in his middle rounds before perhaps losing his flow when Sunday was lost to the bad weather. He closed with a 71.

But, overall, it was a positive week and Caves Valley could be a venue where he does some damage.

Hoffman gives it a good biff off the tee (27th for Driving Distance) and is 45th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

In his last 12 events on American soil he's finished in the top 25 in nine of them and that includes a second place in the Texas Open and a third in the Charles Schwab Challenge.

He's also won one of the FedEx Cup Playoff events previously, that victory coming at TPC Boston in 2010.

His latest victory came in 2016 and was registered just a month after Finau had won the Puerto Rico open.

It's a tall ask but maybe he can scratch the five-year itch too.

More realistically, he can put in another solid display of ball-striking and reward punters who back him each-way at a three-figure price. There are seven payout slots available so take the 100/1.

Staked: £1290.00
Returned: £2625.87
P/L: +£1335.87

2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses
Bet now

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles