The American Express Each-Way Tips: Home in on Hoge

• 40/1 Tom Hoge likes pro-ams and desert golf

• 50/1 Andrew Putnam is ultra-consistent here and arrives in great form

• Keith Mitchell loves Bermuda greens and looks value at 100/1

Main Bet: Tom Hoge each-way @ 41.040/1

After wins for Jon Rahm and Si Woo Kim in the two Hawaii events, the PGA Tour pitches up on the American mainland for the first time in 2023.

The Californian desert is the scene and an impressive cast-list has gathered at La Quinta for an event which dates back to 1960.

Depending on your age or when you got into golf betting, this early-season pro-am has been the Palm Springs Golf Classic, the Bob Hope Classic, the Humana Challenge, the Career Builder Challenge, the Desert Classic and, for the fourth straight year, The American Express.

Three courses are used and for the eighth year running the PGA West TPC Stadium Course acts as host. It stages Sunday's finale and is part of a rotation over the first 54 holes alongside the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club.

They're a trio of Par 72s, all with fairly short yardages: Stadium Course 7,158, Nicklaus Tournament 7,147 and La Quinta 7,060.

Last year, as usual, the TPC Stadium Course, a Pete Dye design, played the toughest of the trio although it only averaged 0.65 shots higher than the easiest, La Quinta. The Nicklaus was bang inbetween.

Winning scores? The seven editions with the TPC Stadium Course as host were won 20-under or lower: -23 (Hudson Swafford), -23 (Si Woo Kim), -26 (Andrew Landry), -26 (Adam Long), -22 (Jon Rahm), -20 (Hudson Swafford) and -25 (Jason Dufner).

With amateurs to cater for, the Bermuda greens aren't too fast and the rough is light. Rahm won at short odds but this can be wide open as shown by the surprise winners above.

In terms of trends, the easiest to swallow are those that make perfect sense. It follows, therefore, that all seven winners in the TPC Stadium Course era had shaken off some rust by playing in Hawaii.

Six of the seven had contested the Sony Open. Their finishing positions at Waialae CC varied - 48th, 25th, MC, MC, 13th, 9th - but there's a clear message: the best path to victory here is to have arrived from the Sony.

Is it a putting contest? The Strokes Gained: Putting rank of the last four winners was 2nd, 8th, 6th, 9th while the top three in 2021 were all in the top eight for SGP.

But had those winners telegraphed their strong putting performances at the Sony a week earlier?

The answer, though, is no! Swafford was only 46th for SGP at the Sony the week before his win while Kim, Landry and Long had all lost strokes on the greens! That could be due to these surfaces being overseeded but, to make matters worse, none of them had a history of putting this week's greens well. No wonder this is such a tough event to call.

Perhaps the lesson there is not to be put off by anyone who didn't wield a hot flatstick last week. The key is that they played and maybe shook off some rust/worked something out.

Course form is definitely a good angle. Swafford was winning for the second time, Kim had a previous top 10 and Landry had finished runner-up two years earlier.

Long was a debutant in 2019 but the two men he beat in a play-off were Phil Mickelson and Adam Hadwin. Lefty was a former winner of the event (also third in 2016) and Hadwin was runner-up two years earlier.

Tom Hoge certainly fits the bill this week and I'll make him my main pick at 40/1.

The American was runner-up in this event last year and also sixth in 2020 so clearly enjoys the set-up.

He also seems to like the relaxed atmosphere of pro-ams having won at Pebble Beach 12 months ago.

A fourth at the Shriners in Las Vegas back in October is further evidence that he enjoys desert golf, as does his top 15 in last year's Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Hoge started the year with a third at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and did nothing particularly wrong when closing with two 67s for tied 41st at the Sony Open.

His putting stats at Waialae were modest (gained 0.395 strokes) but, as noted, that's not a big issue. The main point is that he played there.

Hoge finished 1st (Sentry TOC) and 9th (Sony) for SG: Approach on the Hawaiian Swing so he's striking it really well and he's clearly a player on the up after finishing last season with a fifth at the Tour Championship and opening this one with form figures of 12-4-9-13.

Talking about the Stadium Course where he'll (hopefully) play two of his four rounds, Hoge said last year: "We came here in college even, I played Q-School here, so I got a lot of rounds there and I feel more comfortable there.

"It beat me up a lot early on in my career but starting to feel very comfortable over there. There's so much going on visually out there, but for me the key is just get it in the fairway and it plays to my strength with the iron game and I feel comfortable."

Take the hint and back Hoge for the win.

Next Best: Andrew Putnam each-way @ 51.050/1

Andrew Putnam played in last week's Sony Open and had another excellent week after shooting 62-68 on the weekend to tie for fourth.

That added to a second place in the Zozo Championship and he's made all nine cuts so far in his 2022/23 campaign. Check the FedEx Cup standings and you'll find Putnam in 12th.

Tournament form is a big factor this week and Putnam has some of the most consistent in the field. He's played in this event in each of the last five years and only once finished outside the top 25: a tied 34th in 2019.

Go through his round scores and, although these aren't exactly the toughest courses on the PGA Tour, it's impressive to see that Putnam has broken par in all 20 laps he's played.

He also brings a useful record in California to the table having finished runner-up in the 2021 Barracuda Championship and sixth at Pebble (likes pro-ams klaxon) last year. Top 12s at the last two Shriners and seventh in the 2021 Phoenix Open back up his liking for desert golf.

And then there's his putting. While trying to predict who might excel on the greens this week is far from easy, it has to help if you seem to putt well every week.

Putnam ranked 1st for SG: Putting at the Sony Open and has gained strokes on the field in each of his last 12 measured events. He's 15th for SGP on the season-long standings.

This looks his best chance yet to get really involved in the business end here so take the 50s.

Final Bet: Keith Mitchell each-way @ 101.0100/1

It's a classy front end of the field and the winner could easily come from the top half-dozen players in the betting: 11/2 Jon Rahm, 9/1 Patrick Cantlay, 14/1 Tony Finau, 18/1 Will Zalatoris, 18/1 Xander Schauffele.

Sungjae Im and Tom Kim at 20s can't be dismissed easily either.

But the presence of these big names gives us some decent prices elsewhere.

I was close to pulling the trigger on Byeong Hun An until he was backed from 200/1 to 125s on Monday evening. And part of me thinks the 500/1 about Ryan Moore is surely worth a few shillings. He was sixth here in 2020 and has a 21st and 28th in his last six events.

Denny McCarthy enjoyed the two West Coast pro-ams last season, finishing sixth in this event and 12th at Pebble Beach.

He also made the top six in the Bermuda Championship four starts ago and was a decent enough tied 31st in the Sony Open on Sunday. He's an option at 80s.

But at a three-figure price, I'll put up Keith Mitchell for a second week running.

Mitchell missed the Sony cut when a 33/1 shot but so have recent winners of this event so that doesn't bother me. And I much prefer a player to have gone out at halfway when shooting a Friday 66 as Mitchell did.

Three starts ago he was ninth in November's Houston Open so hopefully a good performance is just around the corner.

An obvious negative is that he hasn't got any strong tournament form but this is only his second appearance and he made the cut on his first in 2018. He was 335th in the world back then. Now he's 63rd.

Mitchell has shown he can play well in the desert with 10th in last year's Phoenix Open and also 16th in 2020.

He also looks the sort of personable chap who will enjoy the pro-am vibe - 12th at Pebble Beach last year backs the theory up - so take the 100/1.