The American Express Each-Way Tips: Get on Gooch in California

Main Bet: Talor Gooch each-way @ 31.030/1

After two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour now embarks on some west coast fun in America.

We'll get to see iconic venues Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach, TPC Scottsdale and Riviera over the next month but, first up, it's the annual shootout at La Quinta in the California desert.

Cards on the table: this is an event I've struggled with. Reason? I wish I fully knew although it's fair to say that a lack of patterns is usually my kryptonite.

Last year Si Woo Kim was strong in every Strokes Gained Category, ranking 1st Tee To Green and 8th SG: Putting.

But shock 2019 winner Adam Long was only 46th Tee To Green and 43rd for Approach, Jon Rahm wasn't in the top 25 for Putting, Hudson Swafford only just crept into positive SGP figures while Jason Dufner was 42nd for Approach.

So what links the last six winners: Kim, Andrew Landry, Long, Rahm, Swafford and Dufner? All of them had played one of the two Hawaii events so they weren't coming in cold.

For the record, their finishes in Hawaii were Kim (25th Sony), Landry (MC Sony), Long (MC Sony), Rahm (2nd Sentry), Swafford (13th Sony), Dufner (9th Sony).

The missed cuts obviously add to the confusion but four of the six had played well, posting at least a top 25.

Three par 72 courses are used (just two last year): La Quinta, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Pete Dye Stadium Course which stages two of the four rounds including the finale.

That throws up another clue: players who play well on the design legend's tracks. Kim had won on Dye's most famous creation, TPC Sawgrass, while Dufner was a winner at TPC Louisiana.

Looking at the others, along with Kim, in last year's top five: Ancer has an excellent record on Pete Dye tracks, Cantlay has two thirds at Harbour Town and Finau has top 10s in majors at Whistling Straits and Kiawah.

Part of that good Dye form was actually at this venue. Ancer was runner-up in 2020, Cantlay was ninth two years earlier, as was Michael Thompson who finished fifth 12 months ago.

In other words, the Dye link is a worthy one.

So, after all that, I've ended back on a player I've put up for the last two weeks - Talor Gooch.

It hasn't proven a profitable move yet as he's finished tied 15th in the Sentry and tied 27th at the Sony. But he's not far off and a birdie at the easy par-5 closer at Waialae last Sunday would have moved him into the top 20.

This looks another good opportunity to play the man who scored his breakthrough win at last November's RSM Classic.

Gooch has made all four cuts here and gone 4-17-21 in the last three. Filling out the detail, he shot a closing 64 to take fourth in 2019, fired another 64 in round three in 2020 and was 13th with a round to go last year after middle laps of 66-65.

As for other Pete Dye form, Gooch was a very notable tied fifth at Sawgrass last year.

If there's one standout stat here from the last five years it's Putting Average. The last four winners ranked 11-1-1-8 in that category during the week of their win and Gooch is 27th on the season-long PA stats.

A player very much on the up, I'll go in again at 30/1.

Next Best: Chris Kirk each-way @ 81.080/1

At 80/1 I like the look of Chris Kirk.

The American shot 66-65-71-66 at the Sony Open last week to finish tied 27th, his finish compromised by a frustrating 71 on Saturday.

That looks a decent rust remover and hopefully he can kick on here.

Kirk finished tied 16th in this event last year while in 2017 he was eighth with 18 holes to go before slipping to tied 21st.

Impressively, he's made eight of his last nine cuts at The Players Championship - a venue where many of the top names go home early - and the only blemish in that run was a withdrawal. He has three top 15s at Sawgrass.

Add in a top five at Louisiana and 10th and 12th in two visits to Crooked Stick and he certainly has some decent form on Dye courses.

He also likes desert golf. Kirk has a second, a third and a fourth at TPC Scottsdale and plenty of good form in Nevada too.

Kirk is a four-time PGA Tour winner, who has played Presidents Cup. There's an extra touch of class about him and the 80/1 could look very big.

Final Bet: Vincent Whaley each-way @ 126.0125/1

I looked at a few outsiders for this event, with Davis Riley appearing on the radar when checking several stats.

But I'll go with a player starting to make an impression at this level - Vince Whaley.

The 26-year-old has status through his top 50 finish on the 2020-21 Korn Ferry Tour.

Tracing his results since August, Whaley was tied ninth at the Barracuda Championship and then jumped back to the Korn Ferry, picking up finishes of 10th and fourth.

Now finding his feet on the main stage, his last six events show six cuts made and decent finishes in three of them: tied seventh in the Bermuda Championship, tied 15th in the Houston Open and tied 17th in last week's Sony Open where he closed with a 64.

Whaley ranked 10th for Putting Average at the Sony and he's a very handy operator with the flatstick. Looking at some of the PGA Tour's putting categories shows him 25th for Putting Average, 16th for Total Putting and 38th for Strokes Gained Putting.

What gives him an edge over some of the other newer players is that he's played this event a couple of times previously and, in the first of those, Whaley posted tied 29th after finishing 68-67-68.

He's maybe not quite ready to win yet but recent form suggests he's more than capable of sneaking into a place.

Let's give him a whirl at 125/1.

A quick look at the top end of the betting shows Jon Rahm as the 11/2 favourite ahead of Patrick Cantlay at 15/2.

Scottie Scheffler will likely prove popular given his debut third place here in 2020 although 18/1 for a still non-winner is sure to put others off.

At 28/1 Matthew Wolff was certainly on my radar. This just looks like the sort of event he'd win although I'm not on board as this is his first start since mid-November.

Michael Thompson was another I mulled over at 66/1 due to his fifth here last year and fifth at the Sony Open.