The American Express 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 50/1 to 125/1

• 50/151.00 Daniel Berger has course/current form and an ideal draw

• 90/191.00 Michael Kim can add to his top six here from 2024

• 125/1126.00 Kevin Roy could build on last week's strong display

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Introduction to The American Express

Headline tip Chris Gotterup did the business for us in Hawaii last week but unlike a big chunk of the Sony Open field, he isn't making the trip to California.

This is the first PGA Tour event on the US mainland in 2026 and also comprises the first full field of 156.

The differences don't end there. The American Express is played over three courses and features amateurs for the first 54 holes.

Those par 72 courses are the Nicklaus Tournament Course (7,147 yards), La Quinta (7,060 yards) and the Stadium Course (7,210 yards).

The Stadium is by far the hardest and is used on the final day when the amateurs have already waved goodbye. Based on last year's numbers, breaking par there will beat the average while 69s on either the Nicklaus or La Quinta will be losing shots to the field.

The greens are overseeded and won't run too fast.

Basically this is a birdie-fest where you keep hitting greens in regulation and try and cash in as often as possible with the putter.

The event, once known as the Bob Hope Desert Classic (great name) and the Humana Challenge (terrible name), has been won with at least 23-under for the last seven editions.

Sepp Straka triumphed by two after shooting 25-under last year and with a favourable forecast, it should be something similar. 

Bet 1: Daniel Berger @ 50/151.00

This has been a wide-open event down the years with many big-priced outsiders prevailing.

In his preview, Steve Rawlings notes that since 2007 no less than 16 of the 18 winners had played in one of the Hawaii events.

With The Sentry cancelled, the Sony Open has been the only place to knock off the rust this time.

The weather forecast could also help us. It looks flat calm for the first two days before the wind picks up in round three.

If that works out, the best rotation is to play and make hay on the two easy courses (Nicklaus and La Quinta) on Thursday and Friday before digging in on the tougher Stadium Course on the weekend. Back-to-back rounds there should help the flow.

I'm also looking for someone putting well - four of the last five winners here ranked 11th or better for SG: Putting - and it would be helpful to find evidence of them performing well in a pro-am where the pace of play is super slow.

Daniel Berger ticks just about every box.

The American won the other West Coast pro-am at Pebble Beach in 2021 (also 10th and fifth on his previous two visits) while in this event he has consistent form of 12-29-39-21. Berger was eighth with a round to play last time.

Last week he produced a fast-finishing sixth place at the Sony Open (Sunday 64) and ranked 18th for SG: Putting and 13th for Approach - ideal numbers for this test where you need to set up numerous chances and convert plenty.

Drilling down a little, he was 15th for Approaches from 50-125 yards and that range crops up time and time again on these courses.

Finally, he has the favourable rotation of La Quinta-Nicklaus-Stadium so all the pieces are in place for a big week.

Berger's 2025 season was compromised by a broken finger in the Playoffs but clearly his top six in Hawaii showed that all is good again.

Back him each-way at 50/151.00 (1/5 Odds, 8 Places).

Bet 2: Michael Kim @ 90/191.00

Michael Kim was left to rue one bad round when 31st in last week's Sony Open.

The American opened 67-68 and closed with a 65 but his 4-over 74 on Saturday diminished his finish.

Still, to put it into context, Kim's six previous starts at the Sony showed four missed cuts and nothing better than 40th. 

His own assessment via his best-in-class X account: "Chipping and putting was a real strength this week. I don't remember the last time I putted this well since the French Open. I've leaned more on aim point and I feel like I've gotten a really good handle on my putting."

The stats backed it up. Kim ranked 3rd for SG: Putting and 25th in Approach.

We saw last season that when Kim gets on a roll, he keeps it going.

From Phoenix to Bay Hill he reeled off finishes of 2-13-13-6-4 while later in 2025 he posted three top 10s in five starts, the middle of those a win at the Open de France.

At this course, Kim was an encouraging sixth in 2024 after rounds of 65-63-70-65. It was easily his best result in a rather low-key West Coast Swing that year.

With his scoring clubs working well, he looks primed for this birdie-fest and, like Berger, Kim has the benefit of playing the Stadium Course back-to-back on the weekend.

Bet 3: Kevin Roy @ 125/1126.00

A quick jump to the front of the betting where Scottie Scheffler is the hot 3/14.00 favourite ahead of 18/119.00 Ben Griffin.

Scheffler was third here on debut in 2020 but since then finishes of MC-25-11-17 are underwhelming for his usual levels. That said, he returns this year a much better putter.

But for my final pick I'll jump way down the odds and take Kevin Roy.

This has been a good event for outsiders and Roy, a former college teammate of Xander Schauffele, looks an interesting contender.

Last week he got a front row seat on how to close out a PGA Tour event. Roy was Chris Gotterup's playing partner and hopefully he made some mental notes.

While Gotterup closed with a delightfully crafted 64, Roy could only hand in a 1-over 71 that dropped from second to 13th. He'd had a piece of the 18 and 36-hole lead after opening 62-69.

But getting straight back on the horse may be the best thing for him and he certainly has plenty of confidence at the moment.

During commentary, it was revealed that Roy had shot the course record on his local track in Florida multiple times leading up to the Sony Open. Apparently he carded a trio of 61s in December so that first-round 62 at the Sony didn't come out of thin air.

His hopes of building on a strong week at Waialae are strengthened by an 18th place in last year's American Express where he closed 66-66-69.

Roy actually starts at the Stadium Course on Thursday but we can't have everything and hopefully something in the 60s can propel him to another big week.

He ranked 3rd for SG: Putting at the Sony and if the flatstick stays hot he could be a factor.

Let's play him in the 12-place market at 125s. 

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