Find Me a 100 Winner: Can Cink or Grace do us a favour?

Golfer Branden Grace
Branden Grace winning in Puerto Rico last year

The PGA Tour hops from Maui to Oahu and from the Sentry Tournament of Champions to the Sony Open and our man's back with a pair of outsiders to back at Waialae Country Club...

"As many as seven of the last eight winners warmed up at Kapalua, so I’ve picked out two outsiders that were in the line-up last week and the similarities don’t end there..."

It was a case of close but no cigar last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions where our 300.0299/1 selection, Matt Jones, broke both the 36-hole and 72-hole scoring record but still got beat! And he didn't quite reach the first lay back target either.

His 23-under-par weekend score stands as the lowest ever recorded on the PGA Tour but his 32-under-par 72-hole record didn't last an hour with the runner-up, Jon Rahm, beating his tally by a stroke and the winner, Cameron Smith, shooting two strokes better.

I wasn't entirely surprised that we failed to come up trumps last week though as the PGA Tour has been a tough place for backing outsiders lately and longshots have a shoddy record in the Sentry.

Since Phil Mickelson caused an almighty shock at the USPGA Championship way back in May, the only triple-figure priced winner witnessed on the PGA Tour is Cameron Champ at the 3M Open back in July and there has never been a triple-figure priced winner in the Sentry since it moved to the Plantation Course in 1999.

It's been a long and poor run for outsiders on the PGA Tour, so I'd like to think we're due one and this is as good a place as any.

The 2016 Sony winner, Fabian Gomez, was a triple-figure priced winner, last year's winner, Kevin Na, went off at 120.0119/1, and three of the four winners in-between were matched at 75.074/1 and above before the off. Justin Thomas, in 2017, is the only well-fancied winner in the last six years.

Hilton Head form can come to the fore again

As highlighted in the preview, as many as 16 of the last 23 Sony Open winners have played in the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week before they won here.

Last week's Sentry winner, Cameron Smith, won here two years ago without a pipe-opener at Kapalua but seven of the last eight winners warmed up at Kapalua, so I've picked out two outsiders that were in the line-up last week and the similarities don't end there...

As also highlighted in the preview, one of several courses to correlate really nicely with this week's venue is Hilton Head - home of the RBC Heritage - and both picks have been successful at the Sea Island venue.

Stewart Cink won there for a third time last year and the RBC was Branden Grace's first PGA Tour title, back in 2016.

Cink wins Heritage.jpg

Cink already has a nice bank of form at Waialae, with a fifth placed finish in 2005 the highlight and although Grace missed the cut 12 months ago, he finished 13th on debut back in 2017.

Both players finished down the field last week - Cink finished 21st and Grace 33rd - and a cold putter hindered both, so we need to see some improvement in that department of their games, but the venue suits and the prices are fair.

Back 2 u Stewart Cink @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Branden Grace @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

I've backed a couple of others at bigger prices but both are really wild outsiders and both have shortened up considerably. I took 960.0959/1 about Andrew Novak, purely because of his incredible recent putting figures, and I took 1000.0 on Martin Trainer, who contends out of the blue at tracks like Waialae.

I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Selections

STEVE'S 2022 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L

Staked: 3 units
Returned: 0 units
P/L: -3 units

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