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50/151.00 Andrew Putnam has twice fired 62 here
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50/151.00 Brendon Todd is a frequent fast starter
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80/181.00 Nick Taylor has gone low here in both '22 and '23
Weather forecast for Thursday
Thursday looks to be the windiest of the four days, according to the forecast.
From 8am to 11am, winds double from 10mph to 20mph and could pick up further going into the afternoon before dropping a little later. It's around 70 degrees for most of the day.
As was the case here back in the early days of Keith Elliott's Form Guide, a morning tee-time could be considered favourable and those going out at or near the start may get in a decent run of holes before the winds increase.
Back Andrew Putnam @ 50/151.00
The theory this week is to look at players who managed a low one on similarly slow Bermuda greens at The Sentry last week as well as having some history of shooting the lights out here at Waialae.
The forecast suggests wind so handling that also comes into play.
I'll start with Andrew Putnam, who got better each day at The Sentry, shooting 74-71-67-64.
The American has twice carded a 62 on this week's course, the first of those 8-under rounds coming in 2019 and the second on day three last year.
In those two events he went on to finish runner-up (he was second after 18 holes) and fourth so it's clearly a venue he relishes coming to.
Putnam also closed with a 62 in his final PGA Tour round of 2023 (World Wide Technology Championship) and is a good wind player too.
Add in the fact that he's twice (2018 and 2023) been third after day one at correlating Colonial and there's plenty to like about the 50/151.00 shot who tees off from the 1st at 08.10 local.
Back Brendon Todd @ 50/151.00
Brendon Todd is always worth a look on short Bermuda courses and it's no surprise to check his stats and find some low opening rounds.
Todd was fourth after the first lap last year thanks to a 65, a number he repeated on Sunday.
And in windier conditions in 2020, his 68 was good enough for sixth place on the Thursday leaderboard.
Todd, who once set out with a 63 at El Camaleon (short, Bermuda), opened 67-64 to sit second after 36 holes of The Sentry and he's finished in the top 20 after day one in nine of his last 12 tournaments so always seems to click early.
Like Putnam, he's 50/1 and has an 08.10 tee-time although Todd starts at the 10th.
Back Nick Taylor @ 80/181.00
I had quite a list of possibles for the final slot but Harris English, Adam Hadwin, Erik van Rooyen, Cam Davis and Davis Riley all have late tee-times.
With forecasts changing, they could still be worth a look nearer tee-off time.
But I'll jump a bit further down the betting for the third pick and go with Nick Taylor, who plays alongside Todd at 08.10.
The Canadian didn't find a low round last week but he certainly knows how to rack up the birdies on this course.
Taylor was the halfway leader at last year's Sony thanks to a Friday 62 while he added a Saturday 62 last year to post tied 11th.
Good in the wind, Taylor has been in the top 25 after round one in each of his last four events (he was sixth through 18 holes at the Shriners) and is a former R1 leader on short tests at Colonial (2022) and Pebble Beach (2020).