Golf Bets

Find Me a 100 Winner: Trust Postman to deliver at the Plantation

Golfer J.T Poston
J.T Poston after winning the John Deere Classic in July last year

Big Price Golf Tips. Steve Rawlings returns to preview this week's Sentry Tournament of Champions on the PGA Tour as he tries to find a big-price winner.

  • The Punter seeks redemption after near miss with Jones

  • In form Masters winner value to emulate fellow Aussies

  • JT Poston to enjoy low scoring birdie-fest

  • Both picks fairly priced to finish in the top-ten

The Sentry Tournament of Champions hasn't been a great event for outsiders and in the last ten years the biggest priced winner we've witnessed is Harris English two years ago so we might be up against in the first PGA Tour event of 2023.

The Georgia Bulldog went off at odds of 42.041/1 before getting the better of 55.054/1 chance, Joaquin Niemann, in a playoff two years ago and last year's event was largely dominated by 26.025/1 shot, Cam Smith, and this year's favourite, Jon Rahm, but it may have been a very different story had 300.0299/1 column pick, Matt Jones, started a bit brighter.

As highlighted in this year's preview, a fast start is pretty much essential at Kapalua, so Jones did us no favours by opening with rounds of 70 and 67.

The Aussie sat tied for 15th at halfway, trailing by eight strokes, and he was still six adrift after shooting an 11-under-par 62 in round three to close into a tie for fourth.

He followed that up with a course-record equalling 61 in round four and his incredible 23-under-par weekend tally beat the PGA Tour's previous 36-holes scoring record, set by Steve Sticker at the 2009 Bob Hope Classic (-21), by two strokes.

Jones also beat Ernie Els' 19-year-old 72-hole tournament record of 31-under-par by a stroke, and he finished fully six strokes ahead of the fourth-placed player, Patrick Cantlay, but it wasn't even enough to finish second! He was eventually beaten by fellow Aussie ,Smith, by two strokes.

Here's hoping for a better start this year from either of the two picks, and I'm going to kick things off with yet another Aussie.

Rejuvenated Scott can contend again

Australians always know how to play in the wind and that will go some of the way to explain their excellent record in this event.

Smith was the third man from Down Under to claim the prize at Kapalua (the host course since 1999). Stuart Appleby won the event three years in-a-row between 2004 and 2006 and Geoff Ogilvy won back-to-back in 2009 and 2010.

Having defected to the LIV Tour, Cam Smith is ineligible this week so he's not here to attempt to emulate his fellow countrymen but the man who finished runner-up to Vijay Singh in 2007, Adam Scott, is and I was extremely surprised to get matched at 100.099/1 given his recent form...

In addition to having an ability to handle windy conditions, another reason why Aussies shine in Hawaii in the year's first event could well be their lack of rust.

Unlike most of the field, who have enjoyed a couple of months of down time, the Aussies have been ticking over Down Under in some big events and the last time we saw Scott in action he was finishing second in the Australian Open in early December.

Scott went into the final round there with a one stroke lead and trading at odds-on, but he never got going on Sunday and was eventually beaten by five strokes by Adrian Meronk.

He'll have spent Christmas rueing his final round at Victoria and he may well come out fit and firing.

In addition to his second place finish here in 2007, he's also finished runner-up in the Sony Open, an event that clearly correlates well (see preview) and like five of the last ten winners of this event, he's also a winner of the US Masters, so that's another strong pointer.

adam scott 2022 hsbc abu dhabi.jpg

Generally a 40/1 chance on the High Street, Scott's no bigger than 50/1 anywhere so odds of anywhere close to double figures are great and I was more than happy to get matched at 100.099/1.

He's also an industry best 3/1 for a top-ten finish with the Sportsbook which looks more than fair.

Back 2u Adam Scott 100.099/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Back 2u Adam Scott @ 4.03/1 Top 10 Finish

Trust Postman to deliver at the Plantation

As highlighted in the preview, low scores are the norm around the Plantation Course at Kapalua, a fast start is hugely beneficial and the last two winners, English and Smith, both won wire-to wire.

Streaky players that can get hot with the putter and keep on rolling are the ones to concentrate on and JT Poston, who's nicknamed, for very obvious reasons, The Postman, is just such a player.

Poston finished on 20-under-par way back in 2016 when losing a playoff on the Korn Ferry Tour and when he won the John Deere Classic wire-to-wire in July last year he reached 22-under-par.

Poston won the Wyndham Championship in 21-under-par in 2020 and he was beaten in extra time at the Barbasol Championship in-between his two PGA Tour wins, having reached 21-under-par.

In short, he loves a low-scoring birdie-fest like this and he also ticks the box regarding tournament starts.

In the last eight years, English, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele have all won on their second start at Kapalua so Poston's 11th place on his only previous visit in 2020 is another plus.

The 200.0199/1 available in the exchange win market is a perfectly fair price and he's a nice price to finish inside the top-ten with the Sportsbook at 6/1.

Back 1u J.T Poston 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

Back 2u J.T Poston @ 7.06/1 Top 10 Finish

I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Recommended Bets


New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £40 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.