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22/1 Jordan Spieth has consistently gone low on this course
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Aaron Wise is a much improved putter and can make another fast start at 28/1
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40/1 Sahith Theegala has been posting low rounds over the last few months
Weather forecast for Thursday: It's normal to expect gusty conditions at the Plantation Course and it does pick up on Saturday. But for Thursday's opener the forecast suggests moderate winds of around 8-9mph throughout the golfing day and temperatures in the mid to high 70s.
The skies will show a mix of sunshine and cloud. With a field of just 39, there was unlikely to be a weather bias anyway.
Jump in for Jordan
Jordan Spieth has always been able to throw in low rounds at the Plantation Course, a venue where he's finished first, second and third in five appearances.
On his first two visits he posted 7-under 66s (par is 73 here) in round one, good enough for the first-round lead in 2014 and second place in 2016.
The three-time major winner hasn't started as well since but in a trio of subsequent visits he's always twirled a 66 or lower at some point.
Spieth is often quick to get his eye in, especially on courses where creativity is required. Prime evidence comes from Augusta National where he's been the first-round leader at the US Masters on three occasions.
Although his form tailed off towards the very end of 2022, Spieth won all five points in September's Presidents Cup and I'm hopeful he's been able to press the reset button over the Festive period.
Back the 12.25pm starter (that's 10.35pm UK time!) for FRL here at 22/1.
A Wise move
Aaron Wise didn't do much on his first visit here when 27th in 2019 but he's come on leaps and bounds as a player since then.
He returns four years on as the World No. 33 having ended 2019 at 97th.
One key to his strong performances in the second half of 2022 was his ability to start fast.
Wise opened with a round in the 60s in each of his final nine worldwide tournaments, a 65 giving him the first-round lead in November's Houston Open. He was also third after 18 holes at the CJ Cup (66) and the Tour Championship (65).
It's worth noting that this week's course was redesigned by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, the men also responsible for Trinity Forest in Texas. The significance? TF was the scene of Wise's first PGA Tour success in 2018, his winning score of 23-under showing he's suited to the birdie-fest we can expect this week.
A far better putter these days since returning to the broomhandle - he's 18th in SG: Putting having ranked 81st, 174th, 171st and 132nd in the previous four campaigns - Wise can get the birdie count going early.
The 28/1 shot tees off at 11.10am local time.
Take a chance on Theegala
The smart move on this quirky course is to avoid first-timers although there are exceptions to that 'rule'.
And I'm hoping Sahith Theegala is one of them - for 18 holes at least.
Last month, the popular 25-year-old teamed up with Tom Hoge to win the QBE Shootout, not quite the official solo victory he was looking for but a nice way to end an excellent year.
Prior to that, Theegala had been doing what you want from a player carrying your money in this market: getting hot and going low.
He fired 63s at October's ZOZO Championship and November's RSM Classic and closed with a 64 at the Houston Open. Winding a little further back, he was first-round leader at August's St Jude Championship after throwing down another 63 on day one.
Theegala has played in Hawaii just once since making it on to the PGA Tour and on that occasion he opened with a 65 at the 2022 Sony Open.
Let's hope for something similar from the 40/1 shot, who starts out at 10.25am local.