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Find Me a 100 Winner: Players Championship Special

Steven Rawlings
07 March 2023
4 min read

J.T Poston - fancied to contend at Sawgrass

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The PGA Tour pitches up at TPC Sawgrass this week for the Players Championship and our man has picked out four outsiders to trade in the prestigious tournament...

The Punter picks out four outsiders to trade at Sawgrass
Read my Players Championship preview here
Read my Kenya Open preview here

Last year's Kenya Open, which I've previewed here, was won by the 80.079/1 outsider, Ashun Wu, and pre-event 150.0149/1 chance, Guido Migliozzi, got off the mark in the event back in 2019, so a longshot taking the crown at Muthaiga Golf Club can't be ruled out but I make no apologies for putting all my eggs in one basket this week and concentrating my efforts solely on the Players Championship - an event that has seen more than its fair share of outsiders win over the years.

Between 2002 and 2005, three of the five winners, Craig Perks, Fred Funk and Stephen Ames, were all backed at huge odds before the off, Tim Clark, in 2010, Martin Kaymer, 2014, and Webb Simpson in 2018, were all matched at a triple-figure price ahead of the Thursday start and the 2017 winner, Si Woo Kim, was matched at the Betfair Exchange maximum price of 1000.0.

In addition to all those big-priced winners, an outsider has finished second, beaten by just one stroke, in each of the last three editions. And we were onboard two of them!

Jim Furyk, a 320.0319/1 pick for this column, finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy in 2019, and after a year off due to the pandemic, Lee Westwood finished runner-up to Justin Thomas in 2021, having been a 160.0159/1 selection before the off.

Pre-event 42.041/1 shot, Cam Smith, won last year's renewal but he was pushed all the way by the runner-up, pre-event 1000.0 chance, Anirban Lahiri, who was matched at a low of 3.65.

Don't dismiss debutant Davis

A compromise of sorts is always made when backing a huge outsider and the fact that Davis Riley is teeing it up at TPC Sawgrass for the first time is not an insignificant negative.

The aforementioned Perks, in 2002, is the only first timer to win here since Hal Sutton way back in 1983 so debutants don't have a great record but that was the case last week at the Arnold Palmer and it didn't stop Kurt Kitayama. The 30-year-old Californian was the first debutant to win at Bay Hill in 33 years!

While all eyes were on the enthralling finish on Sunday, Riley was quietly going about his business, firing the best round of the day - a six-under-par 66 - to climb into a tie for eighth.

Sunday's eighth place at Bay Hill was his best finish since he finished 13th at the Wyndham Championship back in August and that was an encouraging performance too.

Davis Riley at the Valspar.jpg

As highlighted in the preview, form at Sedgefield Country Club, the home of the Wyndham, correlates brilliantly here and that 13th placed finish came on the back of form figures reading 31-64-MC-MC.

Prior to that, following his playoff defeat to Sam Burns in Florida at the Valspar Championship this time last year, Riley produced form figures reading 63-MC-4-5-9-13-4, so there's a strong chance he can build on Sunday's brilliance.

The 26-year-old from Mississippi won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 and he's over-priced at 270.0269/1.

Back 1 ½ u Davis Riley @ 270.0269/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

Wyndham winner, Poston, can deliver at Sawgrass

J.T Poston has lost his way a bit since finishing sixth at the American Express in January, missing the cut at both the Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational before finishing only 63rd at the Honda Classic last time out but it's about the putter with Poston and when that gets hot he tends to contend.

With course form figures reading 22-22-MC, he's shown a liking for Sawgrass already but given he won the aforementioned Wyndham Championship in 2019, that isn't a surprise.

Poston also won the John Deere Classic last summer when the flatstick warmed up, a week after finishing second at the Travelers Championship, but he doesn't always telegraph a high finish.

His third at the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2020, second at the Barbasol in 2021, third at the Heritage in 2022 and his runner-up finish in the Travelers, all followed a run of poor form so I'm happy to chance him at 320.0319/1.

Back 1u J.T Poston @ 320.0319/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

Try Trey at a tasty price

With his monstrously long tee-game, Trey Mullinax was fancied to make a big impact on the PGA Tour after he'd graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour and finished ninth at the 2017 US Open but he's taken his time to establish himself.

It looked like a matter of months rather than years before he'd win after he'd finished second in the Texas Open in 2018 but we had to wait until last July and just weeks after his 30th birthday for the breakthrough to occur at the Barbasol Championship.

Trey Mullinax.jpg

Since the win. Mullinax has performed admirably enough with the top-five finishes at both the Houston Open and the St Jude Championship the highlights before last week's top-eight finish at Bay Hill.

The compromise with Trey, is that he's missed the cut on both his previous visits to Sawgrass, but last week's performance was extremely encouraging, he won in Florida on the Korn Ferry Tour, he has a nice early tee-time on Thursday, and he's a fair price at 500.0499/1.

Back 1u Trey Mullinax @ 500.0499/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

Bank on Ben to contend again

It's now almost nine years since Ben Martin won his one and only PGA Tour title at the Shriners Children's Open but another victory could be imminent if his current form is anything to go by.

His last two starts on the PGA Tour have yielded a 13th place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a fifth-place finish at the Honda Classic and it's worth highlighting that the last time he finished inside the top-five in Florida on the PGA Tour it was here in 2015.

Martin finished fourth on his Sawgrass debut (sat second with a round to go) a couple of months after he'd finished fifth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational so the 35-year-old clearly enjoys a tough test in Florida.

ben martin day three corales.jpg

Martin was in the wilderness for some time before finishing second at the Corales Puntacana Championship this time last year but one of his highlights was a top-ten finish at the Wyndham Championship in 2015.

Back 1u Ben Martin @ 580.0579/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Recommended Bets

Back 1 ½ u Davis Riley @ 270.0269/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u J.T Poston @ 320.0319/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u Trey Mullinax @ 500.0499/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u Ben Martin @ 580.0579/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

STEVE'S 2023 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L

Staked: 43.5 units
Returned: 40 units
P/L: -3.5 units

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