Mexico Open at Vidanta: Dave Tindall's each-way picks at 45/1 and 50/1

• 50/151.00 Charley Hoffman already has a top five this season

• 45/146.00 Justin Lower has a superb recent record in Mexico

• 50/151.00 Antoine Rozner is in form and strong on Paspalum

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Brief history of the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld 

The Mexico Open became an official event on the PGA Tour in 2022 so there's fairly limited course form to go at this week although the three played so far have thrown up some clues.

Vidanta Vallarta is a fairly chunky 7,436 yards, playing to a par of 71, and the three winners so far have been crushers of the golf ball.

Jon Rahm took victory in 2022 with 17-under, Tony Finau really went to town to score a three-stroke win with 24-under in 2023 while Jake Knapp couldn't be stopped last year and ended two clear on 19-under.

One little wrinkle is that Rahm and Finau's wins came in April when the Masters had already been played.

The 2024 edition was the first to be contested in February and with a little bit of extra rough it wasn't just monster hitters who populated the final leaderboard.

The Greg Norman design is flat with fairly generous fairways and has an extra part three, hence the par of 71.

Wind can play a part - this is a coastal resort featuring Paspalum grass - but the forecast suggests kind conditions this week.

On the stats so far, the three winners have ranked first, firstst and third for SG: Tee To Green and 17th, eighth and 18th for Putting. 

Good driving was rewarded. Rahm and Finau ranked second Off The Tee and Knapp 11th.

With the event rather acting as a relaxing bridge between the West Coast and Florida Swings, the field is pretty weak.

The top of the betting tells us that with Akshay Bhatia 11/112.00 favourite, Rasmus Hojgaard 13/114.00, Kurt Kitayama 17/118.00 and Sam Stevens 18/119.00.

Charley Hoffman @ 50/151.00

If looking for a good driver of the ball with eyecatching Tee-To-Green numbers so far in 2025, Charley Hoffman's name is one of those flashing.

The veteran ranks 12th Tee To Green, 18th in Total Driving and 37th Off The Tee this season.

His long irons have been top notch, helping him rank 22nd for Approach.

Hoffman has already banked an each-way payout this term when fifth at The American Express while he backed that up with a top 25 in the Farmers Insurance Open.

So far, so good and 50s in this field with those numbers behind him certainly makes appeal.

The negatives would be some very average putting and a course record of 55-MC.

But he was in the top 25 with a round to play in 2023 and his CV shows a previous win in Mexico - the OHL Classic.

Last year he finished fourth at the Corales Puntacana - another event played on Paspalum grass.

Speaking at La Quinta during his top five in The American Express, Hoffman said: "I would say the middle of last year I started feeling really healthy, and I was able to start practising a lot and just, you can't compete against these guys without practicing and honing your game.

"There was a few years there where I was just trying to get starts under my belt because I couldn't practice, and you just can't compete. Now I'm able to practice, put the time in, and I'm seeing the benefits.

"If the putter gets warm I usually contend, and it's starting to heat up this week."

It he starts to roll it well on the greens, he has the class to make an impact here.

Justin Lower @ 45/146.00

There can be few players in the field looking forward to this week more than Justin Lower.

After all, the 35-year-old from Ohio, has finished second and third on his last two starts in Mexico.

The runners-up finish came in November's World Wide Technology Championship while the third was in this event last year.

Between those two Mexico visits he finished fourth in the Corales Puntacana Championship which gives Lower this impressive stat: he's made the top four in each of his last three starts on Paspalum greens.

His over all results this season are a mixed bag but third place at The American Express was a reminder that his first PGA Tour win remains close.

And when winding back to November to get a wider overview, Lower has three top five finishes in his last seven starts. The others also came near the coast: the second at the WWT in Mexico and a fifth in the Bermuda Championship.

Putting remains his big strength and that could count for plenty here with scoring set to be easy due to the good weather forecast.

Hopefully those previous good finishes act as a set of dress rehearsals and Lower is now ready to take the final step and win.

In a weak field and on a course where he was third last year, it represents a golden opportunity.

Antoine Rozner @ 50/151.00

In last year's Mexico Open, Sami Valimaki seemed somewhat of a surprise challenger given his lack of experience on the PGA Tour. But there were clues. 

A check back through the Finn's record showed he'd won twice previously on Paspalum.

One of those had come just a few months earlier at the Qatar Masters. The other was on another Greg Norman designed, Al Mouj, which hosted the 2020 Oman Open.

So is there a Euro raider with a similar profile this week? There could be one in Antoine Rozner.

Like Valimaki in 2024, he's a recent recipient of a PGA Tour card after a strong season on the DP World Tour. And, like Valimaki, he's a two-time winner on Paspalum.

Rozner landed the 2021 Qatar Masters at Education City and the 2022 Mauritius Open at Mont Choisy on that particular strain.

His last five starts on Paspalum show four top 10s, including a fourth at the recent Qatar Masters in Doha.

When Valimaki finished runner-up here in 2024 he hadn't done much with his new PGA Tour card, posting MC-MC-43-41 in the build-up.

For Rozner it's MC-48 but popping back to the DP World Tour for a top four in Doha a few weeks ago was a real boost and justified his decision to not hang around after being put on the alternate list for Phoenix.

Rozner had played in just one regular PGA Tour event before this season but in that he was 18th at Memorial which is a very decent effort.

The field here is far, far weaker so hopefully he can carry over some impressive form from his travels over the last few months.

Across his last seven starts he has a fourth in South Korea (Genesis), sixth in Abu Dhabi, third on another Norman track at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai and there was that third in Qatar earlier this month.

Rozner ranked fourth for SG: Tee To Green and third on Approach in Qatar and his game looks sharp. So why not another big display here in Mexico?

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